Is Russia's demographic situation improving?

"Since the Russian economy recently has shown sings of stabilization, there now is evidence that demographic trends are beginning to improve somewhat. Although the population declined by 164,200, to 148.1 million at the beginning of 1996, the release of new statistical compendia by the Russian statistical agency (Goskomstat Rosii) in 1995 and early 1996 makes it possible to identify several positive trends.... Life expectancy increased for the first time since 1985. The infant mortality rate declined for the second year in a row. The crude death rate declined for the first time in a decade. The birth rate remained at about the same level for the third consecutive year. The rate of natural increase (births minus deaths), although still negative, recorded a moderate increase."     

Interpretation of3He abundance variations in the solar wind

The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 has observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km s^–1. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of³He flares occurred during this time.The long-term average⁴He⁺⁺/³He⁺⁺ flux ratio R, was 2050 ± 200, a agreement with a previously reported result obtained using part of this data set, and in very good agreement with the previous measurements made over much shorter periods of time with the foil technique. The R values for 6-month intervals show statistically significant differences. The highest of these values is 2300 and coincides with the solar maximum of cycle 21 indicating that at solar maximum there may be changes in the character and rate of occurrence of short-term variations in R. We also find that R drops under conditions of low proton flux in the solar wind, and that it is high when solar wind speeds are lowest.At solar wind speeds above 400 km s^–1 R is nearby constant at about 2000; at lower speeds it is larger and more variable, in agreement with the idea that the sources of high and low speed wind are different. At times of sector boundary current sheet crossings, identified with coronal streamers, there is a characteristic rise in the value of R indicating an encounter with a plasma with reduced³He⁺⁺ abundance. Autocorrelations have been computed for⁴He⁺⁺ and³He⁺⁺ and indicate correlation times of about 14 and 20 hr, respectively. Periods of duration of about one day whenR is less than 1000 tend to coincide with the observation of compound streams.The possibility of detectable increases in³He⁺⁺ flux in plasma which left the Sun at the time of³He flares has been investigated, but no significant increase was seen.     

Near-infrared observations of the peculiar binary system epsilon Aurigae

Near-infrared photometric and low-resolution spectroscopic observations of Aurigae at two phases during the current eclipse are presented. The eclipse depths are found to be wavelength-independent in the infrared right up to 2.5 m. There is no infrared excess at wavelengths shorter than 2.5 m. The light absorbing particles in the eclipsing body must be larger than 10 m in size.     

Late stages of the evolution of close binaries

Close binaries can evolve through various ways of interaction into compact objects (white dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes). Massive binary systems (mass of the primaryM ₁ larger than 14 to 15M ₀) are expected to leave, after the first stage of mass transfer a compact component orbiting a massive star. These systems evolve during subsequent stages into massive X-ray binaries. Systems with initial large periode evolve into Be X-ray binaries.Low mass X-ray sources are probably descendants of lower mass stars, and various channels for their production are indicated. The evolution of massive close binaries is examined in detail and different X-ray stages are discussed. It is argued that a first X-ray stage is followed by a reverse extensive mass transfer, leading to systems like SS 433, Cir X1. During further evolution these systems would become Wolf-Rayet runaways. Due to spiral in these system would then further evolve into ultra short X-ray binaries like Cyg X-3.Finally the explosion of the secondary will in most cases disrupt the system. In an exceptional case the system remains bound, leading to binary pulsars like PSR 1913+16. In such systems the orbit will shrink due to gravitational radiation and finally the two neutron stars will coalesce. It is argued that the millisecond pulsar PSR 1937+214 could be formed in this way.A complete scheme starting from two massive ZAMS stars, ending with a millisecond pulsar is presented.Paper presented at the Lembang-Bamberg IAU Colloquium No. 80 on Double Stars: Physical Properties and Generic Relations, held at Bandung, Indonesia 3–7 June, 1983.     

A catalogue and finding list of galactic novae

A catalogue of galactic novae and an atlas of finding charts are under preparation and will be published in 1984. The status of the project is described.Paper presented at the Lembang-Bamberg IAU Colloquium No. 80 on Double Stars: Physical Properties and Generic Relations, held at Bandung, Indonesia, 3–7 June, 1983.     

Steady models for the hard X-ray loops in the solar corona

In some gradual hard X-ray bursts with high intensity, hard X-ray source (15–40 keV) is steadily located in the corona along with softer X-ray source (5–10 keV).Two stationary models, high density and high temperature models, are proposed to solve the difficult problem of confinement of hot (or nonthermal) plasma in the direction of the magnetic field along the loops in the corona. In both models, an essential point is that the effective X-ray source is composed of fine dense filamentary loops imbeded in a larger rarefied coronal loop, and the electron number density in the filaments is so high as 10¹¹–10¹² cm^-3. If the density is so high heat conduction can be as reasonably small as of the order of 10²⁷ erg s ^-1 for the given emission measures of observed X-rays, since the required cross-sectional area is small and also classical conduction is valid. Collisional confinement of thermal tail, and nonthermal electrons if any, up to 50–60 keV in the filaments is also possible, so that the hard X-ray images can be loop like structure instead of double source (foot points).High density model is applicable to the coronal filamentary loops with temperature T _m < 5 × 10⁷ K at the loop summit. The heat flow from the summit downwards is lost almost completely by the radiation from the loop during the conduction to the foot points. A continuous energy release is assumed near the summit to maintain the stationary temperature T _m, and pressure balance is maintained along the loop. In this model, the number density at the summit is given by n _m - 10⁶ T _m ² /s_m, where s _m is the length of the loop from the summit to the foot point, and the distribution of temperature and density along the loop are given by T = T _m(s/s_m)^1/3 and n = n _m(s/s_m)^-1/3, respectively.High temperature model is applicable to the filamentary loops with higher temperature up to about 10^8.5 K and comparatively lower number density as 10¹¹ cm^-3 for the requirement of magnetic confinement of the hot plasma in radial direction. The radiation from the loop is negligibly small in this model so that the heat flux is nearly conserved down to the foot points. In this case, temperature gradient is smaller than that of the high density model, depending on the tapering of the magnetic bottle.In both models, the differential emission measure is maximum at the highest temperature T _m and the brightness distribution along the loop shows a maximum around the summit of the loop if some magnetic tapering is taken into account.     

Properties of metre-wavelength solar bursts associated with interplanetary type II emission

A statistical analysis is used to determine the properties of metre-wavelength events which are associated with interplanetary type II bursts. It is found that the likelihood of an interplanetary type II burst is greatly increased if: (a) an associated metre-wavelength type II has a starting frequency less than 45 MHz; (b) a strong metre-wavelength continuum is present; (c) the type II contains herringbone fine structure; and (d) the metre-wavelength activity is accompanied by strong, long-lasting H and soft X-ray events.Visiting scientist at Division of Radiophysics, January 1983; previous address - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.     

The acceleration of minor ion species in the solar wind

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of the flow of minor ion species in the solar wind under the combined influences of gravity, Coulomb friction (with protons), rotational forces (arising from the Sun's rotation and the interplanetary spiral magnetic field) and wave forces (induced in the minor ion flow by Alfvén waves propagating in the solar wind). It is assumed that the solar wind can be considered as a proton-electron plasma which is, to a first approximation, unaffected by the presence of minor ions. In the dense hot region near the Sun Coulomb friction accelerates minor ions outwards against the gravitational force, part of which is cancelled by the charge-separation electric field. Once the initial acceleration has been achieved, wave and rotational forces assist Coulomb friction in further increasing the minor ion speed so that it becomes comparable with, or perhaps even exceeds, the solar wind speed. A characteristic feature of the non-resonant wave force is that it tends to bring the minor ion flow into an equilibrium where the radial speed matches the Alfvén speed relative to the solar wind speed, whereas Coulomb friction and rotational forces tend to bring the flow into an equilibrium where the radial speed of the minor ions equals the solar wind speed. Therefore, provided that there is sufficient wave energy and Coulomb friction is weak, the minor ion speed can be trapped between these two speeds. This inteststing result is in qualitative agreement with observational findings to the effect that the differential flow speed between helium ions and protons is controlled by the ratio of the solar wind expansion time to the ion-proton collision time. If the thermal speeds of the protons and minor ions are small compared to the Alfvén speed, two stable equilibrium speeds can exist because the rapid decrease in the Coulomb cross-section with increasing differential flow speed allows the non-resonant wave force to balance Coulomb friction at more than one ion speed. However, it must be emphasized that resonant wave acceleration and/or strong ion partial pressure gradients are required to achieve radial speeds of minor ions in excess of the proton speed, since, as is shown in Section 4, the non-resonant wave acceleration on protons and minor ions are identical when their radial speeds are the same, with the result that, in the solar wind, non-resonant wave acceleration tends (asymptotically) to equalize minor ion and proton speeds.     

Infrared extinction of heavy ion irradiated and amorphous olivine,with applications to interstellar dust

A smooth surface layer of highly disordered olivine, (Mg, Fe)₂SiO₄, has been produced by exposure of polished, natural olivine to a dose of 5×10¹⁶ cm^–2 of 1.5 MeV neon ions from a Van de Graaff accelerator. The dielectric functions of the disordered silicate in the wavelength range from 8 to 30 m have been determined from analysis of specular reflectance data, and extinction for Rayleigh particles of such disordered olivine has been calculated. Extinction measurements for amorphous olivine smoke collected on a substrate are also presented. The small particle extinctions of both kinds of structurally disordered olivine are shown to agree well with the main features of the absorption and emission spectra from interstellar grains in the 10 and 20 m region.     

Ammonia photolysis and the greenhouse effect in the primordial atmosphere of the earth

Photochemical calculations indicate that in the prebiotic atmosphere of the Earth ammonia would have been irreversibly converted to N₂ in less than 40 years if the ammonia surface mixing ratio were ≤ 10^?4. However, if a continuous outgassing of ammonia were maintained, radiative equilibrium calculations indicate that a surface mixing ratio of ammonia of 10^?5 or greater would provide a sufficient greenhouse effect to keep the surface temperature above freezing. With a 10^?4 mixing ratio of ammonia, 60 to 70% of the present day solar luminosity would be adequate to maintain surface temperatures above freezing. A lower limit to the time constant for accumulation of an amount of nitrogen equivalent to the present day value is 10 my if the outgassing were such as to provide a continuous surface mixing ratio of ammonia ≥ 10^?5.