区域性热带气旋暴雨短期预报系统在MICAPS系统上的移植

利用MICAPS系统上的实时报文资料,以物理量场诊断为动力相似的主要依据,综合热带气旋移动路径及登陆范围来订正,以人机结合方式完成梧州及贺州地区的热带气旋暴雨24h落区预报工具在MICAPS系统上的移植,直观形象地显示预报结果。该工具利用1979～1980年7～9月、1995年7～9月3a的热带气旋实例进行试报,1997～1998年7～9月试运行,均取得较好的预报效果,目前已可以在后汛期台风季节中投入准业务试用。     

24万年来西昆仑山甜水海湖岩芯碳酸盐含量变化与气候环境演化

青藏高原现代气候与环境存在着明显的区域差异。高原西北部的西昆仑山甜水 海地区是高原上气候最干旱的区域。作者于１９９５年６月在该区海拔４８４０ｍ的湖盆首次打钻取芯（ＴＳ９５孔）,获得５７ｍ湖泊岩芯,经对样品的实验室测年和多项环境指标分析,表明,ＴＳ９５孔岩芯覆盖了距今２４０－１７ｋａ间的时间尺度。期间,经历了倒数第二次冰期,末次间冰期,末次冰期早期,末次冰期间冰阶和末次冰盛期几个气候变化阶段。岩芯中     

萨拉乌苏河流域萨拉乌苏组砂丘砂沉积特征

The Salawusu Formation of Milanggouwan section in Salawusu River Valley includes 7 layers of paleo-mobile dune sands, and 4 layers of paleo-fixed and semi-fixed dune sands. Their structures have been observed and their grain size, surface textural features and several main chemical elements have been analyzed. The results showed that： 1） Some of the aeolian structural characteristics of these dune sands are similar to that of the recent dune sands. 2） They are also similar to the recent dune sands in grain size components, and parameters of Mz,σ, Sk and Kg, as well as in several main chemical components. 3） The scattergrams of Mz-σ and SiO2-Al2O3＋TOFE and the probability curves of grain size showed that these paleo-dune sands are different from paleosols and fluvio-lacustrine facies, but are consistency with recent dune sands. 4） Quartz sands have well roundness and surface textural features such as dish-shaped pits, crescent-shaped pits, pockmarked pits, upturned cleavage plates, siliceous precipitates and siliceous crevasses, indicating that they had been carried for a long time by the wind. As the 11 layers of paleo-dune sands possess the aeolian characteristics in structure, grain size, surface textural features and chemical elements, the origin of their formation should be attributed to eolation.     

残余和现今应力场重迭法预测强震危险时区

以红河断裂带测区为例，用Ｘ射线法测量了测区的古构造残余应力场及其应变能密度场，用有限单元法计算了测区在两种边界条件下的水平最大剪应力场，用实验和理论证明了古构造残余主压应力大小和方向对岩石破坏、破裂扩展和震级的影响。用上述方法预测，松平—南涧、玉溪—开远、普洱为测区内强震危险区段。结合地球自转角速度相对变率的天文观测曲线在时间轴上的外延，预测得１９８９－１９９６、１９９９－２００４、２００７－２０１３、２０１６－２０１８年为测区内强震危险时段。     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.     

磁流变液及结构减振智能驱动器

本文,首先通过正交试验研究了磁流变液各组分对其性能的影响作用及作用机理.试验表明,油酸的主要作用是提高磁性颗粒的溶解性,而OP乳化剂的主要作用是提高磁性颗粒的分散能力.其次,根据以上的试验结果,在大量具体对比试验的基础上,研制成功了一种剪切屈服强度高、沉降稳定性好的磁流变液.而后,根据磁流变液的流变特性,结合磁路特点,设计制作了一个额定电压为9V、电流为2A、功率为20W的磁流变减振驱动器,并测试了此驱动器的阻尼力及时间响应特性.测试表明,本减振驱动器的响应时间是0.2至0.3秒,而不是理论响应时间的10毫秒.最后,分析了响应时间的影响因素.     

香港的旅游资源及其开发

本文介绍了香港丰富多彩的自然旅游资源和人文旅游资源，分析了香港自５０年代以来旅游业开发的进程，预测香港回归祖国之后，旅游业必将进一步稳定发展。     

关于《模式识别之重心法则及其在地图制图中运用一例》一文的一点注记

本文对重心法则给出了一个扩展,使该法则的运用由综合指标到了全部指标,并证明了 I_G~((1))=I_G~((2))。     

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of young glacial sediments from the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Poor bleaching is a significant problem for Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of glacial sediments. Five young glacial samples (including two modern analogues) from different depositional settings were collected beyond the Yingpu Glacier in the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. De was determined using different OSL methods. The luminescence characteristics and dating results showed that the large aliquot quartz Blue Stimulated Luminescence (BSL) is more applicable than polymineral infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) method. Small aliquot quartz BSL results showed poor luminescence properties due to low luminescence sensitivity of quartz in this area. The dating results also indicated that glaciofluvial samples deposited close to ice margin (~40 m and ~700 m) and supraglacial debris dominated lateral moraine samples are relatively well-bleached, whereas samples from ground moraine and low terminal moraine were poorly bleached, probably due to containing subglacial and englacial debris. The residual doses of glaciofluvial and lateral moraine crest samples were below a few Gy and age overestimations were below a few hundred years. The ground moraine and low terminal moraine samples had residual doses as high as ~110 Gy, and ages were overestimated by ~15-17 ka.     

Efficiency of excavations with buttress walls in reducing the deflection of the diaphragm wall

Installation of buttress walls against diaphragm walls has been used as an alternative measure for the protection of adjacent buildings during excavation, but their mechanism in reducing movements has not yet been fully understood. This study performs three-dimensional finite element analyses of two excavation case histories, one in clay with T-shape buttress walls and another in dominant sand with rectangular buttress walls, to establish analysis model. Then, a series of parametric study were performed by varying soil types, types and length of buttress walls based on the above-mentioned excavations. Results show that the mechanism of buttress walls in reducing wall deflections mainly came from the frictional resistance between the side surface of buttress wall and adjacent soil rather than from the combined bending stiffness from diaphragm and buttress walls. The buttress wall with a length <2.0 m had a poor effect in reducing the wall deflection because the soil adjacent to the buttress wall had almost the same amount of movement as the buttress wall, causing the frictional resistance little mobilized. Since the frictional resistance of buttress walls in a deep excavation has fully been mobilized prior to the final excavation depth, the efficiency of buttress walls in reducing the wall deflection in a deep excavation was much less than that in a shallow excavation. Rectangular shape of buttress walls was of a better effect than T-shape in the shallow excavation because frictional resistance between buttress walls and adjacent soil played a major role in reducing the wall deflection rather than bearing resistance of the flange. When the excavation went deeper, the difference in reducing the wall deflection between the R-shape and T-shape became small.