Groundwater overexploitation: why is the red flag waved? Case study on the Kairouan plain aquifer (central Tunisia)

In many parts of the world, groundwater users regularly face serious resource-depletion threat. At the same time, “groundwater overexploitation” is massively cited when discussing groundwater management problems. A kind of standard definition tends to relegate groundwater overexploitation only as a matter of inputs and outputs. However, a thorough state-of-the-art analysis shows that groundwater overexploitation is not only a matter of hydrogeology but also a qualification of exploitation based on political, social, technical, economic or environmental criteria. Thus, an aquifer with no threat to groundwater storage can rightly be considered as overexploited because of many other prejudicial aspects. So, why is groundwater overexploitation so frequently only associated with resource-depletion threat and so rarely related to other prejudicial aspects? In that case, what really lies behind the use of the overexploitation concept? The case of the Kairouan plain aquifer in central Tunisia was used to analyze the way that the overexploitation message emerges in a given context, how groundwater-use stakeholders (farmers, management agencies and scientists) each qualify the problem in their own way, and how they see themselves with regard to the concept of overexploitation. The analysis shows that focusing messages on overexploitation conceals the problems encountered by the various stakeholders: difficulties accessing water, problems for the authorities in controlling the territory and individual practices, and complications for scientists when qualifying hydrological situations. The solutions put forward to manage overexploitation are at odds with the problems that arise locally, triggering tensions and leading to misunderstandings between the parties involved.     

A strategy for producing refined currents in the Equatorial Atlantic in the context of the search of the AF447 wreckage

On the night of 1st June 2009, a Rio-Paris Air France flight (AF447) disappeared in a highly variable and poorly observed part of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first debris was located 5 days after the accident. Several reverse drift computations were conducted in order to define the likely position of the wreckage. Unfortunately, the performance of the operational ocean analyses available in the region of interest ranges from 80 to 100 km of positioning error after 5 days of inverse drift computation. In preparation of the third phase of research of the wreckage at sea, a series of numerical experiments was performed at Météo-France and Mercator Océan in an attempt to better compute the surface currents in the region and for the period of the accident of the AF447 (May and June 2009). Tailored high-resolution atmosphere and ocean reanalyses were first produced respectively at Météo-France and Mercator Océan. Several nested experiments were then performed with a small and flexible ocean model limited to the region of interest. The date of the initial conditions and the type of atmospheric forcing fields were varied in order to produce a small ensemble from which information on the sensitivity to these changes could be derived. Probabilistic and statistical combinations between model and observations were tested and a solution was finally selected by means of a comparison of drift computations with independent surface drift observations.     

The Use of Weather Forecasts to Characterise Near-Surface Optical Turbulence

The propagation of optical and electromagnetic waves is affected by small-scale atmospheric turbulence, quantified by the structure parameter of the refractive index. In the atmospheric surface layer, the mean structure parameter C_n²{C_{n}^{2}} , as averaged over the large-scale turbulence, relates to meteorological forcings through well-documented relationships. Present-day numerical weather forecast models routinely produce these forcings at the global scale. This study introduces a method where the products of such a model are used to calculate the mean optical turbulence near the surface. The method is evaluated against scintillometry measurements over climatologically distinct sites in Western Europe. The diurnal cycle modulation, and regional and seasonal contrasts, are all reproduced by our predictions. Hence, the present method explains and predicts some essential aspects of the meteorological variability of C_n²{C_{n}^{2}} near the surface. The noted discrepancies combine instrumental limitations, site peculiarities, differences related to distinct averaging procedures, and model errors, notably from weather forecasts. The minute-scale fluctuations of the measured scintillation rate are also analysed in the light of the forecast weather conditions. Fair-weather daytime periods consistently show a small short-term variability compared to the nighttime and perturbed weather periods. Thus, this short-term variability appears to have a predictable component.     

Computation of the space and time evolution of equilibrium-line altitudes on Andean glaciers (10°N–55°S)

A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.     

Metal‐saturated sulfide assemblages in NWA 2737: Evidence for impact‐related sulfur devolatilization in Martian meteorites

NWA 2737, a Martian meteorite from the Chassignite subclass, contains minute amounts (0.010 ± 0.005 vol%) of metal‐saturated Fe‐Ni sulfides. These latter bear evidence of the strong shock effects documented by abundant Fe nanoparticles and planar defects in Northwest Africa (NWA) 2737 olivine. A Ni‐poor troilite (Fe/S = 1.0 ± 0.01), sometimes Cr‐bearing (up to 1 wt%), coexists with micrometer‐sized taenite/tetrataenite‐type native Ni‐Fe alloys (Ni/Fe = 1) and Fe‐Os‐Ir‐(Ru) alloys a few hundreds of nanometers across. The troilite has exsolved flame‐like pentlandite (Fe/Fe + Ni = 0.5–0.6). Chalcopyrite is almost lacking, and no pyrite has been found. As a hot desert find, NWA 2737 shows astonishingly fresh sulfides. The composition of troilite coexisting with Ni‐Fe alloys is completely at odds with Chassigny and Nahkla sulfides (pyrite + metal‐deficient monoclinic‐type pyrrhotite). It indicates strongly reducing crystallization conditions (close to IW), several log units below the fO₂ conditions inferred from chromites compositions and accepted for Chassignites (FMQ‐1 log unit). It is proposed that reduction in sulfides into base and precious metal alloys is operated via sulfur degassing, which is supported by the highly resorbed and denticulated shape of sulfide blebs and their spongy textures. Shock‐related S degassing may be responsible for considerable damages in magmatic sulfide structures and sulfide assemblages, with concomitant loss of magnetic properties as documented in some other Martian meteorites.     

Raman spectroscopic properties and Raman identification of CaS‐MgS‐MnS‐FeS‐Cr2FeS4 sulfides in meteorites and reduced sulfur‐rich systems

Raman spectra were acquired on a series of natural and synthetic sulfide minerals, commonly found in enstatite meteorites: oldhamite (CaS), niningerite or keilite ((Mg,Fe)S), alabandite (MnS), troilite (FeS), and daubreelite (Cr₂FeS₄). Natural samples come from three enstatite chondrites, three aubrites, and one anomalous ungrouped enstatite meteorite. Synthetic samples range from pure endmembers (CaS, FeS, MgS) to complex solid solutions (Fe, Mg, Ca)S. The main Raman peaks are localized at 225, 285, 360, and 470 cm^?1 for the Mg‐rich sulfides; at 185, 205, and 285 cm^?1 for the Ca‐rich sulfides; at 250, 370, and 580 cm^?1 for the Mn‐rich sulfides; at 255, 290, and 365 cm^?1 for the Cr‐rich sulfides; and at 290 and 335 cm^?1 for troilite with, occasionally, an extra peak at 240 cm^?1. A peak at 160 cm^?1 is present in all Raman spectra and cannot be used to discriminate between the different sulfide compositions. According to group theory, none of the cubic monosulfides oldhamite, niningerite, or alabandite should present first‐order Raman spectra because of their ideal rocksalt structure. The occurrence of broad Raman peaks is tentatively explained by local breaking of symmetry rules. Measurements compare well with the infrared frequencies calculated from first‐principles calculations. Raman spectra arise from activation of certain vibrational modes due to clustering in the solid solutions or to coupling with electronic transitions in semiconductor sulfides.     

Late slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Inception: New constraints from sedimentary (231Pa/230Th)

Our study gives new constraints on the response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) export to various forcings during the Last Glacial Inception. The decay corrected excess sedimentary (²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th) activity ratio (hereafter referred to as (Pa/Th)) has been measured over that period in two deep cores from the Western (SU90-11, 44°04′N, 40°01′W, 3645 m) and Eastern (MD01-2446, 39°03′N, 12°37′W, 3547 m) basins of the North Atlantic. Both records display significant changes despite the relatively short half-life of ²³¹Pa (～ 32 kyr) compared to the period we investigate. The (Pa/Th) variability does not correlate to changes in local opal flux normalized to ²³⁰Th. Moreover, the (Pa/Th) profiles display a high degree of coherency with indirect proxies of AMOC activity such as the benthic foraminifera δ¹³C and the mid-latitude summer Sea Surface Temperature in nearby reference cores. These additional pieces of evidence support our interpretation of the (Pa/Th) as reflecting AMOC export. The (Pa/Th) repeatedly underwent rapid changes during the Last Glacial Inception associated with the extension of ice rafted detritus in the North Atlantic, highlighting the control of ice-sheet dynamics through freshwater forcing on AMOC export. AMOC export remains large during periods of ice-sheet growth and its decreases lag the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation forcing. AMOC modulation appears driven by ice-sheet dynamics, itself driven by the seasonal insolation gradient between low and high Northern Hemisphere latitudes and the associated intensity of the meridional oceanic and atmospheric circulation.     

Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables

Abstract

The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7–9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Singhrattna, N., Babel, M.S. and Perret, S.R., 2012. Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 26–41.     

Constraining groundwater modeling with magnetic resonance soundings

Magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) is a noninvasive geophysical method that allows estimating the free water content and transmissivity of aquifers. In this article, the ability of MRS to improve the reliability of a numerical groundwater model is assessed. Thirty-five sites were investigated by MRS over a ～5000 km(2) domain of the sedimentary Continental Terminal aquifer in SW Niger. Time domain electromagnetic soundings were jointly carried out to estimate the aquifer thickness. A groundwater model was previously built for this section of the aquifer and forced by the outputs from a distributed surface hydrology model, to simulate the observed long-term (1992 to 2003) rise in the water table. Uncertainty analysis had shown that independent estimates of the free water content and transmissivity values of the aquifer would facilitate cross-evaluation of the surface-water and groundwater models. MRS results indicate ranges for permeability (K = 1 × 10(-5) to 3 × 10(-4) m/s) and for free water content (w = 5% to 23% m(3) /m(3) ) narrowed by two orders of magnitude (K) and by ～50% (w), respectively, compared to the ranges of permeability and specific yield values previously considered. These shorter parameter ranges result in a reduction in the model's equifinality (whereby multiple combinations of model's parameters are able to represent the same observed piezometric levels), allowing a better constrained estimate to be derived for net aquifer recharge (～22 mm/year).     

Micro-scale flood risk analysis based on detailed 2D hydraulic modelling and high resolution geographic data

The paper presents a consistent micro-scale flood risk analysis procedure, relying on detailed 2D inundation modelling as well as on high resolution topographic and land use database. The flow model is based on the shallow-water equations, solved by means of a finite volume scheme on multi-block structured grids. Using highly accurate laser altimetry, the simulations are performed with a typical grid spacing of 2 m, which is fine enough to represent the flow at the scale of individual buildings. Consequently, the outcomes of hydraulic modelling constitute suitable inputs for the subsequent exposure analysis, performed at a micro-scale using detailed land use maps and geographic database. Eventually, the procedure incorporates social flood impact analysis and evaluation of direct economic damage to residential buildings. Besides detailing the characteristics and performance of the hydraulic model, the paper describes the flow of data within the overall flood risk analysis procedure and demonstrates its applicability by means of a case study, for which two different flood protection measures were evaluated.