The Present, Past, and Future Contributions to Global Warming of CO2 Emissions from Fuels

The objective of this paper is to emphasize theresponsibility of developed countries to implement the Climate Convention, as well as the role ofdeveloping countries in CO₂ emissions controlwhile sustaining their rights to increase energyconsumption per capita during the development process. Itis shown that the growth in CO₂$ emissions fromfossil fuel consumption in North America, excludingMexico, from 1990 to 1996 was 3.7 times higherthan that of Latin America in absolute terms. Thecumulative contribution to global warming, expressedas the mass of the gas multiplied by time (GtCy), can becalculated as the integration of the atmosphericconcentration of the emitted gas along time, witha weight function in the integrand to simulate theclimate response. To simulate climate response,we used the superposition of exponential decay functions with different decay constants. Thehistorical contributions of the OECD countries,the Eastern European countries and theex-Soviet Union, and from all developingcountries are considered. The future contributionsare computed in three scenarios. All of them showthat emissions from Non-Annex I countrieswill become higher than those of Annex I countriessoon after 2010, while the curves of atmosphericconcentration will cross one another later, not muchbefore 2050, and the respective contributions toglobal temperature increase will cross about 2090.     

Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean

As the global climate warms due to increasing greenhouse gases, the regional climate of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region will also change. This study presents the latest estimates of the expected changes in temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclone activity, and sea level. Changes in temperature and precipitation are derived from climate model simulations produced for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), by comparing projections for the mid- and late-21st century to the late 20th century and assuming a “middle-of-the-road” scenario for future greenhouse gas emissions. Regional simulations from the North America Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) are used to corroborate the IPCC AR4 rainfall projections over the US portion of the domain. Changes in tropical cyclones and sea level are more uncertain, and our understanding of these variables has changed more since IPCC AR4 than in the case of temperature and precipitation. For these quantities, the current state of knowledge is described based on the recent peer-reviewed literature.     

Height transformation models from ellipsoidal into the normal orthometric height system for the territory of the City of Zagreb

The paper presents the testing of the possibility of determining the heights of GPS points in the homogeneous field in the new Croatian Height Reference System (HVRS71) by using the method of height transformation. The testing was made in the area of Zagreb. As part of the field works, normal orthometric heights of 27 GPS points were determined according to the new height system, by transferring the benchmark heights using the geometric levelling method, thus obtaining GPS/levelling points of known ellipsoidal and normal orthometric heights. The GPS/levelling points served as the basis for determining the transformation models that enabled the computation of normal orthometric heights from ellipsoidal heights of any GPS point in the observed area. The empirical data used for modelling were reduced undulation dN values of GPS/levelling points. As part of the dN modelling with parametric functions, the approximation surfaces were obtained on the basis of three polynomials: FN310, FN312 and FN318. The transformation models were also tested using non-parametric Watson and Loess algorithms. The FN318 and Loess models yielded the best results.     

An estimate of the contribution of high nergy cosmic-ray protons to the absorbed dose inventory of a cometary nucleus

We discuss the contribution of cosmic-ray protons at all energies above 1 MeV to the absorbed doses of the surface layers of a comet. Since there exists no calculation which takes into account proton energy losses by means of losses to electrons and nuclear collisions (in a cascade process), and losses due to the low energy end-products of the cascade, we have made a rough estimate of all of these contributions. An analytical formula is proposed that allows a rapid estimate of ranges and the dose absorbed at any depth. We give dose-depth curves for two extreme values of the energy at which nuclear collisions begin to dominate the slowing-down process, and for an intermediate value we display the dose-depth curve down to 20 m from the surface. The relevance of these findings to dosimetry in comets and some alterations of cometary material are considered. The need for improving the analytical expression proposed is stressed.     

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.     

3D modeling and monitoring of karst system as a base for its evaluation and utilization: a case study from eastern Serbia

Beljanica Mountain in eastern Serbia is a part of the Carpathian Balkan arch (northern Alpine branch). It covers an area of about 300 km² and consists mostly of Jurassic and Cretaceous limestones. Numerous surface karst features, long caves and several large karstic springs located in Beljanica’s piedmont along the contact of karstic and non-karstic rocks are all indicators of an intense karstification. Currently, the large karstic water reserves of Beljanica Mountain are not properly utilized because of their distance from main consumers, the objection by national water managers that the springs lack a stable and sufficient discharge particularly during recession periods. Due to its unpolluted and high quality water, the area is a great prospect for future water supply, and provides an opportunity for artificial regulation and for the design and implementation of specific tapping structures. This paper includes an analysis of the created 3D ArcGIS model of karst interior and its correlation with historical and newly collected data of spring discharges and groundwater physico-chemical characteristics. The results of karst aquifer monitoring (both quantitative and qualitative) are linked with the results of extensive field geological and speleological survey of the upper non-saturated part of the karst (such as sinkholes, pits and caves) and with the investigation of the permanently saturated deeper part of the aquifer (including the diving methods). The model of karst interior is based on the data from the 69 caves, 15 sinks and 1,682 dolines (sinkholes) surveyed. The total length of the karst channels network, calculated using the GIS model and presented in a 3D environment, is 647 km. The catchment areas of five major springs that drain the areas are estimated to range from only 7 km² (Malo Vrelo Spring) to 124 km² (Vrelo Mlave Spring). The groundwater exploitable reserves of Beljanica karst aquifer are estimated to be over 4 m³/s. The waters are low mineralized, unpolluted and have a great potential for water supply.     

The Carpatho-Balkanides and adjacent area: a sector of the Tethyan Eurasian metallogenic belt

The Tethyan Eurasian metallogenic belt (TEMB) was formed during Mesozoic and post-Mesozoic times in the area of the former Tethyan ocean on the southern margin of Eurasia, with the Afro-Arabian and Indian plates to the south. It extends from western Mediterranean via the Alps and southeastern Europe through the Lesser Caucasus, the Hindu Kush, and the Tibet Plateau to Burma and SW Indonesia, linking with the West Pacific metallogenic belt. The Carpatho-Balkan region is one of the sectors of the TEMB, characterized by some specific features. The emplacement of ore deposits is related to a definite time interval, and to specific tectonic settings such as: 1. Late Permian-Triassic intracontinental rifting along the northern margin of Gondwanaland and/or fragments already separated. This setting involves volcanogenic and volcano-sedimentary deposits (iron, lead/zinc, manganese, antimony, mercury, barite), skarn deposits associated with volcano-plutonic complexes of bimodal magmatism, and low temperature carbonate-hosted lead/zinc deposits. 2. Jurassic intraoceanic rifting – ophiolite complexes: This setting hosts major magmatic (particularly podiform chrome deposits) and volcano-sedimentary deposits, mainly of the Cyprus type. 3. Subduction-related setting involves porphyry copper deposits, lesser skarn deposits (iron, locally Pb-Zn), massive sulphide Cu (e.g. Bor) accompanied locally by Pb-Zn of replacement type, epithermal gold deposits, associated with calc-alkaline igneous complexes of the Early Tertiary-Late Cretaceous, and the Neogene gold/silver and base metals deposits. 4. Post-collision continent-continent setting includes deposits of Pb-Zn, Sb, As, Au-Cu associated with volcano-plutonic complexes of calc-alkaline affinity. Several major Alpine metallogenic units are developed in the Carpatho-Balkanides and adjacent area, each characterized by specific development, mineral associations, and types of ore deposits. Received: 3 June 1996 / Accepted: 10 January 1997     

Zur Revision der GattungGloeocapsa Kützing (Cyanophyta)

Ohne Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit entstand dank der Unterstützung der Alexander-von-Humboldt-Stiftung, Bad Godesberg.