Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5–35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.     

Relationship of Sediment-Biochemistry,Bacterial Morphology,and Activity to Geotechnical Properties in the Central Indian Basin

Distribution of biochemical properties, morphological and functional characteristics of bacteria in the extreme sedimentary environment of the Central Indian Basin (CIB) was examined in relation to geotechnical properties and sediment texture. Interrelationships between these parameters in siliceous northern sediments were compared to southern pelagic clay to understand relationships and to appreciate mining implications. Clay impacted lipids negatively and silt positively in the south. Geotechnical properties had the opposite influence on the distribution of coccoidal and rod forms of bacteria. Rods were affected negatively by water content/porosity and positively by wet bulk density in the north suggesting their preference for deeper niches. Shear strength affected coccoidal distribution negatively in the south. Competition for labile substrates by coccoidal forms in the surface layers could also have restricted the rods to the deeper regions. Principal component analysis (PCA) further strengthened our inference that the distribution of rod forms increased with depth. Enzymatic properties of bacterial isolates also showed that the rods were able to degrade substrates like gelatin and DNA. These observations suggest that they are capable of degrading relatively more recalcitrant compounds in the deeper layers. The minor components, like the rod morphotypes and sand content, could wield a large influence on the variability of other parameters.     

ON ANALYSIS OF STEP-DRAWDOWN DATA

Abstract. A procedure is described for the analysis of step- drawdown pumping test data. The method uses the general form of the drawdown equation during a step with the superposition of the effects of incremental pumping between steps. An interactive computer code based on this procedure is developed to estimate aquifer characteristics and well-loss factor from the observed time-drawdown data at different discharge rates. Analysis of specific step-drawdown data indicates the adaptability of the code for practical application.     

Theoretical investigation of interstellar C–C–O and C–O–C bonding backbone molecules

There are numerous complex organic molecules containing carbon and oxygen atoms which show either C–C–O or C–O–C bonding backbone. This paper examines altogether 51 C–C–O and C–O–C bonding backbone molecules from ten different isomeric groups (C₂H₂O, C₃H₂O, C₂H₄O, C₂H₄O₂, C₃H₄O, C₂H₆O, C₂H₆O₂, C₃H₆O, C₃H₆O₂, C₃H₈O) to summarize the present astronomical status of these molecules. Accurate calculations of enthalpy of formation of these molecules show that the isomers with C–C–O backbone are more stable than the C–O–C backbone. Interestingly, a detailed analysis of relevant astromolecules indicates that most of the observed astromolecules have the C–C–O backbone. As a matter of fact, of all the molecules examined in this study, 80% of the astronomically observed species have the C–C–O backbone while only 20% have the C–O–C backbone. In general, interstellar abundance of a molecule is controlled by some factors such as kinetics, formation and destruction pathways,thermodynamics etc. A proper consideration of these factors could explain the observed abundances of these molecules. All these possible key factors are discussed in this paper.     

A comparison study between the newly-born ion effect and the thermal effect on the whistlers in the ionosphere

We have considered an ionospheric plasma model that includes the thermal effect along with the newly born ionic effect and derived a group travel time for the low-frequency whistlers with a view to employing it as a diagnostic tool in the ionosphere. The mathematical development shows that the thermal effect contribution varies with ( _i – )_–7/2 whereas that of the newly born ionic effect varies with _i – )_–5/2. Both the effects are discussed separately. It is concluded that the effects are reasonably countable in the ionosphere. The investigations finally conclude that both the effects should be taken into the whistler waves, otherwise the method might cause a discrepancy in the results, which could affect their accuracy.     

Exact solution of a key equation in a finite planetary atmosphere by the method of laplace transform and linear singular operators

Considering the ground reflection according to Lambert's law, we establish a fundamental equation in finite planetary atmospheres. An exact form of the solution of this equation is obtained for the emergent quantities from the bounding faces in terms ofX-Y equations by the method of Laplace transform, in combination with the theory of linear singular operators.