The effect law of deformation and failure of a jointed rock mass is essential for underground engineering safety and stability evaluation. In order to study the evolution mechanism and precursory characteristics of instability and failure of jointed rock masses, uniaxial compression and acoustic emission (AE) tests are conducted on sandstones with different joint dip angles. To simulate the mechanical behavior of the rock, a jointed rock mass damage constitutive model with AE characteristic parameters is created based on damage mechanics theory and taking into account the effect of rock mass structure and load coupling. To quantify the mechanism of rock instability, a cusp catastrophe model with AE characteristic parameters is created based on catastrophe theory. The results indicate that when the joint dip angle increases from 0° to 90°, the failure mechanism of sandstone shifts from tensile to shear, with 45° being the critical failure mode. Sandstone's compressive strength reduces initially and subsequently increases, resulting in a U-shaped distribution. The developed damage constitutive model's theoretical curve closely matches the test curve, indicating that the model can reasonably describe the damage evolution of sandstone. The cusp catastrophe model has a high forecast accuracy, and when combined with the damage constitutive model, the prediction accuracy can be increased further. The research results can provide theoretical guidance for the safety and stability evaluation of underground engineering.
The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (Fcnr) and estimates of biological reference points (FBRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery. 相似文献