Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years

Summary A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO₂ concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO₂ concentration remains constant at present, the CO₂ greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO₂ greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.     

Study on cut-off low-pressure systems with floods over Northeast Asia

Summary The cut-off lows (COLs) during the period from June to August 1998 leading to the record flood in Northeast Asia, especially in Northeast China, has been investigated in this paper. The results are as follows: the blocking highs benefited significantly the formation and maintenance of COLs over Northeast China; an obvious frontogenesis zone existed in Northeast China and it implies that baroclinity played an important role in the initiation of COLs, especially in middle and upper troposphere; the maxima of the potential vorticity anomaly were located in the upper troposphere, then extended downwards to the middle and the lower troposphere. The pronounced interaction between systems in upper-middle and low troposphere can be revealed; the moisture supply was from South China, and even from East China Sea and South China Sea. The strong southerly current transported very rich moisture to Northeast China. The maximum of the convergence of moisture flux was below 850 hPa. Obvious interaction between the middle and lower latitude systems was found in the study. Also, the summer monsoon showed significant impacts on the sustained heavy rainfalls related with the COLs over Northeast China; the upward motion could be caused by the lifting of the large scale dynamic forcing and there was no obvious releasing of latent heating in the upper-middle troposphere. The cold dome in the COLs was quite different both from the warm core in tropical cyclone and from the weaker warm core in Meiyu (Baiu) front low. The calculation of vorticity budget shows that both the horizontal advection term and horizontal divergence term contributed importantly to the maintenance and the strengthening of positive relative vorticity. Finally, the complex dynamical characteristics regarding the COLs are discussed and further investigation is proposed.     

Seasonal Transition Features of Large-Scale Moisture Transport in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1957-2001, the climatological seasonal transition features of large-scale vertically integrated moisture transport （VIMT） in the Asian-Australian monsoon region are investigated in this paper. The basic features of the seasonal transition of VIMT from winter to summer are the establishment of the summertime ＂great moisture river＂ pattern （named the GMR pattern） and its eastward expansion, associated with a series of climatological events which occurred in some ＂key periods＂, which include the occurrence of the notable southerly VIMT over the Indochina Peninsula in mid March, the activity of the low VIMT vortex around Sri Lanka in late April, and the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon in mid May, among others. However, during the transition from summer to winter, the characteristics are mainly exhibited by the establishment of the easterly VIMT belt located in the tropical area, accompanied by some events occurring in ＂key periods＂. Further analyses disclose a great difference between the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions when viewed from the meridional migration of the westerly VIMT during the seasonal change process, according to which the Asian monsoon region can be easily divided into two parts along the western side of the Indochina Peninsula and it may also denote different formation mechanisms between the two regions.     

边长勘丈法在村庄地籍测量中的应用

探计了村庄地籍测量的三种方法,重点发析了边长勘丈法在溧水县村庄地籍测量的可行性,通过实践对比,分析了该方法对测量成果的精度影响.     

GPS与GIS集成在工程机械系统中的应用

在讨论GPS(全球卫星定位系统)与GIS(地理信息系统)集成在工程机械系统中应用的基础上,探讨了系统中电子地图的空间数据组织,卫星定位系统的组成、原理及特点.     

基于NB-IoT技术的地震预警信息发布终端设备研制

天津市地震局于2015年通过首都圈预警示范工程项目建设，完成地震预警信息服务网络建设，并选取6所学校安装地震预警信息发布装置，提供地震预警信息示范服务，但由于信息发布装置安装复杂且价格偏高，在一定程度上影响终端设备的普及，制约地震预警信息社会化服务进程。同时，已有终端设备如同黑箱，不利于二次开发应用，存在安全隐患，影响服务质量。因此，天津市地震局积极推进基于NB-IoT技术的地震预警信息发布终端设备研制，实现低成本、低功耗、低延时目标及地震预警信息社会化服务。     

中国气象局直属机关青年人才队伍建设研究

中国气象局直属机关青年比例较高,且普遍具备高学历,整体综合素质强,是气象人才队伍的生力军,是气象事业发展的中流砥柱。通过调研,发现青年人才在政治理论学习、职业发展现状、生活工作压力等方面还存在一些问题。针对青年人才队伍中存在的问题,从提高政治理论教育成果、注重青年思想价值观引导、健全青年人才管理机制、加强职业规划指导、关注青年心理健康等方面提出建议,为进一步提升青年工作质量,加强青年人才队伍建设提供参考。     

岩溶断陷盆地不同海拔植物水分利用效率分析

为探讨不同海拔高度的养分、环境要素与植物水分利用效率变化的关系，以岩溶断陷盆地云南小江流域的乔木、灌木、草本为研究对象，分析水分利用效率和叶片养分浓度随海拔的变化情况。结果表明:（1）研究区内海拔2 000 m处的草本植物的叶片δ13C值最高，2 200 m处的乔木的叶片δ13C值最低；（2）海拔高度对乔木、灌木的植物水分利用效率影响大于草本植物，草本植物的水分利用效率随海拔高度的变化甚微，两者之间的拟合度较小；高值区出现在海拔为2 200 m处的乔木；低值区出现在海拔为2 000 m处的草本植物；（3）不同海拔水分利用效率与叶片N、P浓度的相关性较弱（与叶片的N浓度呈弱正相关，与叶片的P浓度呈弱负相关）；（4）不同海拔水分利用效率与各气候因子的相关性较弱，与多年平均气温、多年平均降雨量、多年平均日照时数均呈弱正相关。      

Long-term evolution of spheroidal galaxies with locally isotropic velocity distribution

The short-term evolution of spheroidal galaxies has been explored by S. Chandrasekhar et al. and G. S. Sunder et al. In this paper, we study their long-term evolution with Laskar's method of frequency analysis. The main new results are as follows: (1) There exists a unique equilibrium, which is spherically symmetric. This equilibrium has a critical linear stability. (2) Generally speaking, the semi-axes exhibit quasiperiodic or nearly quasi-periodic (in a time scale longer than a Hubble time) oscillations around the radius of the above-mentioned equilibrium, so the equilibrium is practically stable. (3) There are cases in which one of the semi-axes tends fast to zero while the other to some finite value. The limit state is generally planar rather than linear, i.e. it is the symmetric semi-axis that tends to zero. This implies that some disk galaxies may have originated from spheroidal pregalaxy material.     

武汉台重力长期变化分析

通过对武汉台超导重力仪９年多连续观测的重力长期变化资料分析,得到长周期重力潮汐参数、该频段气压回归因子Ｃ、极移重力效应因子Ｐ和长周期气压回归因子Ｃ１分别为：Ｃ：－０．３８３（±０．０１４）×１０－８ｍ·ｓ－２／１００Ｐａ;Ｍｍ：１．１１７３（±０．０７２０）,－１°．１７８７（±３°．６９４３）;Ｍｆ：１．１４３２（±０．０４８４）,５°．２２３５（±２°．４２５３）;Ｍｔｍ：１．２２７６（±０．２２４５）,－１７°．５６４８（±１０°．４７５８）;Ｃ１：－０．３１２（±０．０１５）×１０－８ｍ·ｓ－２／１００Ｐａ;Ｐ：１．９０４７（±０．０６９５）．重力长期变化在Ｃｈａｎｄｌｅｒ周期附近的振幅约为３．２６×１０－８ｍ·ｓ－２。