首都圈东部地区震群序列性质判定

采用传统方法和数字地震学方法（视应力）,对首都圈东部地区2009-2017年发生的震群序列性质进行分析,分析结果表明：①使用传统方法不能确定震群序列性质,可以利用视应力方法进一步分析,该方法能够反映每个震群应力场的变化特征,可以进行异常性质判别;②通过2种方法的对比分析,可以提高震群序列异常性质判定结果的科学性和可信度,为后续地震活动趋势提供有力的参考依据。对2种方法进行震例检验,可知后续地震一般为中等以上地震,在震群（具有异常性质）发生1-7个月后发震,发震位置在震源区附近。     

福建地区波速比分布特征

选取福建地震台网"十五"观测系统2009—2015年记录的748个M_L≥1.0地震事件,采用多台和达法计算福建区域波速比值和泊松比值,并绘制二者空间等值线图,分析其分布特征,讨论波速比值高低与震级大小和震源深度的关系,结果发现,波速比大小与二者关系不大。     

新疆且末地磁基准台场址勘选

对拟建设的新疆且末地磁台进行场址勘选,采取十字剖面测量和密跨度测量方法进行地磁场总强度F测量,对测量结果进行初步分析.分析结果表明,且末地磁台的地质条件、磁场梯度分布和背景噪声环境等地磁观测环境条件,符合国家地磁台建设规范的要求,适宜地磁基准台站建设.     

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.     

安宁河-则木河断裂带及周边地区Rayleigh波群速度背景噪声成像研究

安宁河-则木河断裂带位于川滇地块、巴颜喀拉地块和华南地块的交接部位,是川滇菱形块体的东部重要边界。利用布设在安宁河-则木河断裂带周边区域的西昌台阵和川西台阵均历时两年、共187个宽频带地震台站的垂直分量的背景噪声数据,采用噪声层析成像方法获得了这一区域4~20s的Rayleigh波群速度分布图像。与前人研究相比,本文结果的横向分辨率有明显改进,在安宁河-则木河断裂带可达20km左右,在其它区域可以达到20~40km。成像结果表明,安宁河-则木河断裂地区上地壳的速度结构存在明显横向不均匀性,速度分布特征与地表地质构造基本一致,不同周期的速度分布变化较小。盐源盆地、西昌盆地和四川盆地西南缘表现为低速异常。九龙附近和南部的德昌-盐边-巧家附近表现为高速异常,分别与出露的花岗岩体和峨眉山玄武岩有关。在安宁河断裂南段和则木河断裂北段能观测到断裂两侧的速度存在明显差异,其余断裂带两侧的速度对比不明显。贡嘎山附近的中上地壳表现为明显的低速异常,其东侧和西南侧高速体的阻挡,以及鲜水河-安宁河断裂带走向的变化,在贡嘎山区形成一个挤压弯曲段,使得川滇菱形块体的东南向水平运动转换为垂直于断裂的挤压作用和垂直隆升,导致了贡嘎山的快速隆起。     

Statistical facies classification from multiple seismic attributes: comparison between Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method and application in petrophysical inversion

We present here a comparison between two statistical methods for facies classifications: Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method. The classification can be performed using multiple seismic attributes and can be extended from well logs to three‐dimensional volumes. In this work, we propose, for both methods, a sensitivity study to investigate the impact of the choice of seismic attributes used to condition the classification. In the second part, we integrate the facies classification in a Bayesian inversion setting for the estimation of continuous rock properties, such as porosity and lithological fractions, from the same set of seismic attributes. The advantage of the expectation–maximization method is that this algorithm does not require a training dataset, which is instead required in a traditional Bayesian classifier and still provides similar results. We show the application, comparison, and analysis of these methods in a real case study in the North Sea, where eight sedimentological facies have been defined. The facies classification is computed at the well location and compared with the sedimentological profile and then extended to the 3D reservoir model using up to 14 seismic attributes.     

Probabilistic assessment of aggregate risk for bisphenol A by integrating the currently available environmental data

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disruptor widely used in the production of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins. Exposures to BPA have been associated with reproductive, developmental, and cardiovascular effects. In this study, the CalTOX model was used to assess the aggregate health risks on BPA by integrating the currently available BPA data in various environmental media in Taiwan. Local parameters such as chemical properties, local landscape data, and exposure factors were used as model inputs under the continuous source mode. A reference dose (RfD) of 50 μg/kg-day was adopted in this assessment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to simulate great variability of the environmental data. Our results show that an upper limit of 95 % confidence interval of aggregate exposures for the adults (19–64 years old) was 1.05 μg/kg-day, corresponding to a hazard index (HI) of 0.021. The chemical properties (BPA half-life in surface water), intake rates (fruit, vegetable, and fluid intake), and landscape data (average depth of surface waters and leaf wet density) are critical parameters. Finally, HI value would approach to 1 as BPA concentrations in ambient air, surface water, and sediment was greater than 20 ng/m³, 100 μg/L, and 3.3 mg/kg. The quality of the risk assessment on BPA can be further improved by reduction of uncertainty of the abovementioned critical parameters as well as considering additional BPA exposures from canned and packaged goods.     

中国湖泊营养类型的分类研究

对我国１３０余个主要湖泊的营养状况进行了分类研究。结果表明,目前处于协调营养型湖泊１１６个,占调查湖泊数量８７．９％,占调查湖泊面积的９６．０％;非协调营养型湖泊１６个,占调查湖泊数量１２．１％,占调查湖泊面积的４．０％;在协调营养型湖泊中,影响湖泊资料开发利用的主要障碍是;富营养化问题;非协调营养型湖泊中,主要是超营养化和盐碱化问题,它们有的已经严重地影响了湖区经济的发展,是我国当前亟待解决的重     

陆水水库的浮游生物及营养类型

报道了１９９１￣１９９５年对面积为１６９３ｈｍ＾２的黑龙滩水库渔业利用优化模式研究的结果,主要内容有：水生生物种类组成和现存量调查、浮游植物初级生产力测定、渔获物统计和鱼产力估算;水体理化性状和水位变化对鱼产量和浮游生物群落结构的影响,网箱养殖鲤、草鱼的高产试验结果;多功能水库生态系统的渔业利用优化模式初步探讨。经三年努力,水库鱼产量由６２２ｔ上升到１２５５．１ｔ,平均单产７５０ｋｇ／ｈｍ＾２。为     

震灾保险研究中的软科学问题

震灾保险研究融会着自然科学与社会科学的紧密结合和相互渗透,基于这一认识,本文联系震灾保险的社会属性,分析并指出这一险种的非强制性质;保护应用的权益与责任;对社会不规范投保行为的制约;正确理解“与国际惯例接轨”、地震系统的协作模式、政府部门的政策导向等等带有根本性的问题,以启示人们把握研究的大方向,从而加快我国该项研究的实用化进程。