Climate change and transportation in Northern Canada: an integrated impact assessment

The physical and economic impacts of climate warming in the Mackenzie River Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada are estimated using a combination of stochastic modelling, econometric-modelling and input-output analysis. The attempt was to illustrate the utility of using analytical models for long-term impact assessment as well as to estimate the potential impacts from projected climate warming in the region. A scenario approach, based on three global circulation models, was used, with an emphasis on modelling climate variability, river ice conditions and economic impacts. The transportation system was used as a central focus linking the physical and socio-economic components. Despite the significant warming projected for the region, results show the economic impacts from changes in transportation to be relatively minor, with the greatest changes being in the tertiary, or service, sector.     

Posteruption glacier development within the crater of Mount St. Helens, Washington, USA

The cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980, resulted in a large, north-facing amphitheater, with a steep headwall rising 700 m above the crater floor. In this deeply shaded niche a glacier, here named the Amphitheater glacier, has formed. Tongues of ice-containing crevasses extend from the main ice mass around both the east and the west sides of the lava dome that occupies the center of the crater floor. Aerial photographs taken in September 1996 reveal a small glacier in the southwest portion of the amphitheater containing several crevasses and a bergschrund-like feature at its head. The extent of the glacier at this time is probably about 0.1 km². By September 2001, the debris-laden glacier had grown to about 1 km² in area, with a maximum thickness of about 200 m, and contained an estimated 120,000,000 m³ of ice and rock debris. Approximately one-third of the volume of the glacier is thought to be rock debris derived mainly from rock avalanches from the surrounding amphitheater walls. The newly formed Amphitheater glacier is not only the largest glacier on Mount St. Helens but its aerial extent exceeds that of all other remaining glaciers combined.     

Integrated satellite observations of the 2001 eruption of Mt. Cleveland, Alaska

Satellite data were the primary source of information for the eruption of Mt. Cleveland, Alaska on 19 February, and 11 and 19 March 2001. Multiple data sets were used pre-, syn- and post-eruption to mitigate the hazard and determine an eruption chronology. The 19 February eruption was the largest of the three, resulting in a volcanic cloud that formed an arc over 1000 km long, moved to the NE across Alaska and was tracked using satellite data over more than a 50-h period. The volcanic cloud was “concurrently” detected on the GOES, AVHRR and MODIS data at various times and their respective signals compared. All three sensors detected a cloud that had a very similar shape and position but there were differences in their areal extent and internal structural detail. GOES data showed the largest volcanic cloud in terms of area, probably due to its oblique geometry. MODIS bands 31 and 32, which are comparable to GOES and AVHRR thermal infrared wavelengths, were the least effective single channels at detecting the volcanic cloud of those investigated (MODIS bands 28, 29, 31 and 32). MODIS bands 28 and 29 detected the largest volcanic clouds that could easily be distinguished from weather clouds. Of the split-window data, MODIS bands 29 minus band 32 detected the largest cloud, but the band 31 minus band 32 data showed the volcanic cloud with the most internal structural detail. The Puff tracking model accurately tracked the movement, and predicted the extent and shape of this complex cloud even into areas beyond satellite detection. Numerous thermal anomalies were also observed during the eruption on the twice-daily AVHRR data and the high spatial-resolution Landsat data. The high-resolution Radarsat data showed that the AVHRR thermal anomalies were due to lava and debris flow features and a newly formed fan along the west coast of the island. Field observations and images from a hand-held Forward Looking Infrared Radiometer (FLIR) showed that the flow features were ′a′a lava, debris flows and a warm debris fan along the west coast. Real-time satellite data were the primary tool used to monitor the eruption, track changes and to mitigate hazards. High-resolution data, even though coverage is infrequent, were critical in helping to identify volcanic processes and to compile an eruption chronology.     

Application of lidar digital terrain modelling to predict intertidal habitat development at a managed retreat site: Abbotts Hall,Essex, UK

A key question in designing any managed retreat site concerns the nature of the habitats which will be created, and their likely long‐term sustainability and development. Studies of historical sea wall failures in Essex have shown that former reclaimed areas may respond to renewed tidal ?ooding in different ways depending on a number of factors, most importantly the elevation of the land at the time of breach, which governs the frequency and duration of tidal ?ooding. This paper demonstrates how digital terrain modelling using airborne lidar data can be used to calculate the elevation of the land behind a breach and to predict the likely habitats which will be created. When combined with data from sites of historical sea wall failure, predictions can also be made about the likely geomorphological and biological evolution of the created habitats in the longer term. At Abbotts Hall on the northern side of Salcott Creek, Essex, where a managed retreat scheme was activated in October 2002, the highest areas above 2·35 m OD were predicted to develop stable saltmarsh, intermediate areas between 2·1 and 2·34 m OD to develop potentially unstable saltmarsh which is likely undergo internal dissection, and the lowest areas below 2·1 m OD to remain as mud?at or lagoon. Approximately 38 per cent of the site was predicted to develop stable saltmarsh, and nearly 50 per cent to remain as lagoon or mud?at. Monitoring is now being undertaken but it will be several years before the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reduction of TcO4 by sediment-associated biogenic Fe(II)

The potential for reduction of ⁹⁹TcO₄⁻_(aq) to poorly soluble ⁹⁹TcO₂ · nH₂O_(s) by biogenic sediment-associated Fe(II) was investigated with three Fe(III)-oxide containing subsurface materials and the dissimilatory metal-reducing subsurface bacterium Shewanella putrefaciens CN32. Two of the subsurface materials from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford and Oak Ridge sites contained significant amounts of Mn(III,IV) oxides and net bioreduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II) was not observed until essentially all of the hydroxylamine HCl-extractable Mn was reduced. In anoxic, unreduced sediment or where Mn oxide bioreduction was incomplete, exogenous biogenic TcO₂ · nH₂O_(s) was slowly oxidized over a period of weeks. Subsurface materials that were bioreduced to varying degrees and then pasteurized to eliminate biological activity, reduced TcO₄⁻_(aq) at rates that generally increased with increasing concentrations of 0.5 N HCl-extractable Fe(II). Two of the sediments showed a common relationship between extractable Fe(II) concentration (in mM) and the first-order reduction rate (in h⁻¹), whereas the third demonstrated a markedly different trend. A combination of chemical extractions and ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy were used to characterize the Fe(III) and Fe(II) phases. There was little evidence of the formation of secondary Fe(II) biominerals as a result of bioreduction, suggesting that the reactive forms of Fe(II) were predominantly surface complexes of different forms. The reduction rates of Tc(VII)O₄⁻ were slowest in the sediment that contained plentiful layer silicates (illite, vermiculite, and smectite), suggesting that Fe(II) sorption complexes on these phases were least reactive toward pertechnetate. These results suggest that the in situ microbial reduction of sediment-associated Fe(III), either naturally or via redox manipulation, may be effective at immobilizing TcO₄⁻_(aq) associated with groundwater contaminant plumes.