Azimuthal anisotropy of the Pg-wave velocity in hypocentral volumes of NW Croatia

Based on a large set of arrival times of the Pg phase reported by local and regional stations, we estimate azimuthal anisotropy of the Pg-wave velocity in focal volumes of the upper crust in NW Croatia. The method is based on analyses of the azimuthal dependence of ratios of cumulative differences of arrival times and travel paths between foci of earthquake pairs, computed for rays propagating within narrow azimuthal windows. The results clearly indicate the presence of anisotropy of 3.3% with the direction of fast velocity (approximately NNE-SSW) coinciding with the direction of the maximum tectonic pressure as revealed by 23 available focal mechanisms and previous geological investigations. Although a large part of observed anisotropy can be explained assuming that focal volumes are pervaded by a system of vertical extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) cracks aligned under the influence of local tectonic stress field, there is indication that — to a smaller extent — some role was also played by alignment of structural features in the region.     

A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫₀ ^∞ P^*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P^* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.     

An estimate of the contribution of high nergy cosmic-ray protons to the absorbed dose inventory of a cometary nucleus

We discuss the contribution of cosmic-ray protons at all energies above 1 MeV to the absorbed doses of the surface layers of a comet. Since there exists no calculation which takes into account proton energy losses by means of losses to electrons and nuclear collisions (in a cascade process), and losses due to the low energy end-products of the cascade, we have made a rough estimate of all of these contributions. An analytical formula is proposed that allows a rapid estimate of ranges and the dose absorbed at any depth. We give dose-depth curves for two extreme values of the energy at which nuclear collisions begin to dominate the slowing-down process, and for an intermediate value we display the dose-depth curve down to 20 m from the surface. The relevance of these findings to dosimetry in comets and some alterations of cometary material are considered. The need for improving the analytical expression proposed is stressed.     

A note on the thermal component of the equation of state in solids

A simple method for determining the thermal component of the EOS of solids under high pressure is proposed. Application to the interior of the Earth gives results in agreement with recent geophysical data.     

A model of neptune according to the Savić-Kašanin theory

A model of the internal structure of Neptune has been calculated according to the Savi?-Ka?anin theory of behaviour of materials under high pressure.     

Identification of heterogeneous aquifer transmissivity using an AE-based method

Determination of hydraulic head, H, as a function of spatial coordinates and time, in ground water flow is the basis for aquifer management and for prediction of contaminant transport. Several computer codes are available for this purpose. Spatial distribution of the transmissivity, T(x,y), is a required input to these codes. In most aquifers, T varies in an erratic manner, and it can be characterized statistically in terms of a few moments: the expected value, the variance, and the variogram. Knowledge of these moments, combined with a few measurements, permits one to estimate T at any point using geostatistical methods. In a review of transmissivity data from 19 unconsolidated aquifers, Hoeksema and Kitanidis (1985) identified two types of the logtransmissivity Y= ln(T) variations: correlated variations with variance sigma2Yc and correlation scale, I(Y), on the order of kilometers, and uncorrelated variations with variance sigma2Yn. Direct identification of the logtransmissivity variogram, Gamma(Y), from measurements is difficult because T data are generally scarce. However, many head measurements are commonly available. The aim of the paper is to introduce a methodology to identify the transmissivity variogram parameters (sigma2Yc, I(Y), and sigma2Yn) using head data in formations characterized by large logtransmissivity variance. The identification methodology uses a combination of precise numerical simulations (carried out using analytic element method) and a theoretical model. The main objective is to demonstrate the application of the methodology to a regional ground water flow in Eagle Valley basin in west-central Nevada for which abundant transmissivity and head measurements are available.     

An analysis of heat waves in Serbia

In this study, heat waves at three meteorological stations in Serbia were analyzed based on the daily maximum temperature during the summer (June, July and August). The warmest summers as regards heat wave duration and severity occurred within the periods 1951–1952, 1987–1998 (especially 1994) and 2000–2007. The longest heat waves were recorded in 1952, lasting 16 days in Smederevska Palanka and 21 days in Ni?, while in 1994 in Belgrade lasting 18 days. The summer of 1994 in Belgrade and Smederevska Palanka, and 2003 in Ni? were characterized with the highest number of consecutive tropical days (21 and 29, respectively).The autoregressive-moving-average models were applied to generate long series of the daily maximum temperature, from which the relative frequencies of heat waves were estimated. The relationships between the longest heat waves, and the circulation conditions were analyzed using the subjective Hess–Brezowsky catalogue of weather types.