Assimilation of thermal emission spectrometer atmospheric data during the Mars Global Surveyor aerobraking period

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft has produced an extensive atmospheric data set, beginning during aerobraking and continuing throughout the extended scientific mapping phase. Temperature profiles for the atmosphere below about 40 km, surface temperatures and total dust and water ice opacities, can be retrieved from infrared spectra in nadir viewing mode. This paper describes assimilation of nadir retrievals from the spacecraft aerobraking period, L_S=190°–260°, northern hemisphere autumn to winter, into a Mars general circulation model. The assimilation scheme is able to combine information from temperature and dust optical depth retrievals, making use of a model forecast containing information from the assimilation of earlier observations, to obtain a global, time-dependent analysis. Given sufficient temperature retrievals, the assimilation procedure indicates errors in the a priori dust distribution assumptions even when lacking dust observations; in this case there are relatively cold regions above the poles compared to a model which assumes a horizontally-uniform dust distribution. One major reason for using assimilation techniques is in order to investigate the transient wave behavior on Mars. Whilst the data from the 2-h spacecraft mapping orbit phase is much more suitable for assimilation, even the longer (45–24 h) period aerobraking orbit data contain useful information about the three-dimensional synoptic-scale martian circulation which the assimilation procedure can reconstruct in a consistent way. Assimilations from the period of the Noachis regional dust storm demonstrate that the combined assimilation of temperature and dust retrievals has a beneficial impact on the atmospheric analysis.     

Uncertainty, ignorance and ambiguity in crop modelling for African agricultural adaptation

Drawing on social constructivist approaches to interpreting the generation of knowledge, particularly Stirling’s (Local Environ 4(2):111–135, 1999) schema of incomplete knowledge, this paper looks critically at climate-crop modelling, a research discipline of growing importance within African agricultural adaptation policy. A combination of interviews with climate and crop modellers, a meta-analysis survey of crop modelling conducted as part of the CGIAR’s Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) programme in 2010, and peer-reviewed crop and climate modelling literature are analysed. Using case studies from across the crop model production chain as illustrations it is argued that, whilst increases in investment and growth of the modelling endeavour are undoubtedly improving observational data and reducing ignorance, the future of agriculture remains uncertain and ambiguous. The expansion of methodological options, assumptions about system dynamics, and divergence in model outcomes is increasing the space and need for more deliberative approaches to modelling and policy making. Participatory and deliberative approaches to science-policy are advanced in response. The discussion highlights the problem that, uncertainty and ambiguity become hidden within the growing complexity of conventional climate and crop modelling science, as such, achieving the transparency and accessibility required to democratise climate impact assessments represents a significant challenge. Suggestions are made about how these challenges might be responded to within the climate-crop modelling community.     

Impact of copper smelting on lakes in the southern Ural Mountains,Russia, inferred from chironomids

Karabash (52°2 N, 60°10 E) is a copper smelting town in the southern Ural Mountains of Russia. The town is affected by sulphur dioxide emissions and deposition of metal-rich particulates from the smelter, acid drainage from old mine workings, and leachates from disused waste dumps and tailings dams. The close proximity of houses to these sources of pollution is of concern to human health and has devastated terrestrial vegetation in the environs. The environmental impact of the smelter on lakes in the area has been assessed using chironomids. Short sediment cores were taken from 16 lakes within a 50 km radius of the smelter and the composition of the chironomid fauna from the bottom of each core, representing conditions prior to the commissioning of the smelter in 1910, was compared with the present chironomid fauna in the surface sediments. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that changes in the chironomid fauna of most lakes were driven by trophic change, independent of the industrial activity. Lakes and ponds adjacent to the smelter and waste dumps, which directly receive contaminated waters were devoid of macro- and mesofauna and flora, but there is no evidence that other lakes have been severely impacted by smelter emissions. Local geology ensures that the lakes are well-buffered to the effects of acid deposition which will limit the bioavailability of metals in the water column and sediment.