When less is more: limits to international transfers under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement

International carbon markets can be an important tool in achieving countries’ mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, but they are subject to a number of environmental integrity risks. An important risk is that some countries have mitigation targets that correspond to higher levels of emissions than independent projections of their likely emissions. If such ‘hot air’ can be transferred to other countries, it could increase aggregated emissions and create a perverse incentive for countries not to enhance the ambition of future mitigation targets. Limits to international transfers of mitigation outcomes have been proposed to address this risk. This article proposes a typology for such limits, explores key design options, and tests different types of limits in the context of 15 countries. Our analysis indicates that limits to international transfers could, if designed appropriately, prevent most of the hot air contained in current mitigation targets from being transferred, but also involve trade-offs between different policy objectives. Given the risks from international transfer of hot air and the uncertainty over whether other approaches will be effective in ensuring environmental integrity, we recommend that countries take a cautious approach and pursue a portfolio of approaches to ensure environmental integrity, in which case limits could provide for additional safeguards.

Key policy insights

• Limits to international transfers involve trade-offs between different policy objectives, in particular reducing the risk that countries transfer hot air and enabling participation in carbon markets.

• Under ‘relative’ limits a country may transfer mitigation outcomes to the extent that its actual emissions are below the limit. Relative limits derived from historical emissions data have significant limitations, and none of the tested approaches was found to be effective for all countries. Relative limits based on emission projections could be a more valid approach, although they are also technically and politically challenging.

• Under ‘absolute’ limits a country could only issue, transfer or acquire a certain amount of mitigation outcomes. Absolute limits set at sufficiently low levels could prevent countries from transferring large amounts of hot air, but are bluntly applicable to all countries, whether or not they have hot air.

     

Scales of recruitment variability in warming waters: Comparing native and introduced oysters in Hood Canal,Washington, USA

The effect of climate change on natural oyster recruitment has the potential to disrupt many of the ecosystem services oysters provide. Due to the temperature‐sensitivity of reproduction, oyster recruitment may shift as water temperatures rise. A biological imprint of climate change was revealed in a multi‐decadal time series of recruitment of non‐native Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) in the main stem of Hood Canal, Washington, USA, extracted from historic fishery documents. Water in July and August warmed significantly from 1945 to 1995 (0.028 ± 0.004°C per year [±SE]) and accounted for an increase in Pacific oyster recruitment (7% per year, 0.028 ± 0.006 spat per year on log scale [±SE]); recruitment also strongly tracked inter‐annual variability in summer water temperature. Methods used to collect historical data were repeated in 2013–2015 when recruitment of both Pacific oysters and native Olympia oysters (Ostrea lurida) were recorded in main stem and lower Hood Canal. Both historic and modern data show large variation within and between years for temperature as well as recruitment. The modern data add information regarding spatial variation, in that recruitment patterns in the two regions of Hood Canal were decoupled. As temperatures continue to increase, non‐native Pacific oysters are likely to be favored over Olympia oysters, which recruit earlier at lower temperatures and presently contribute less than half of total oyster recruits. Future recruitment, however, may be limited by environmental factors other than temperature, a point indicated particularly in Hood Canal where many subtidal species already respond strongly to gradients in dissolved oxygen.     

Seasonal vegetation and management influence overland flow velocity and roughness in upland grasslands

There is considerable interest in how headwater management may influence downstream flood peaks in temperate humid regions. However, there is a dearth of data on flow velocities across headwater hillslopes and limited understanding of whether surface flow velocity is influenced by seasonal changes in roughness through vegetation cycles or management. A portable hillslope flume was used to investigate overland flow velocities for four common headwater grassland habitats in northern England: Low-density Grazing, Hay Meadow, Rank Grassland and Juncus effusus Rush pasture. Overland flow velocity was measured in replicate plots for each habitat, in response to three applied flow rates, with the experiments repeated during five different periods of the annual grassland cycle. Mean annual overland flow velocity was significantly lower for the Rank Grassland habitat (0.026 m/s) followed by Low-density Grazing and Rushes (0.032 and 0.029 m/s), then Hay Meadows (0.041 m/s), which had the greatest mean annual velocity (examples from 12 L/min flow rate). Applying our mean overland flow velocities to a theoretical 100 m hillslope suggests overland flow is delayed by >1 hr on Rank Grassland when compared to Hay Meadows in an 18 mm storm. Thus grassland management is important for slowing overland flow and delaying peak flows across upland headwaters. Surface roughness was also strongly controlled by annual cycles of vegetation growth, decay, grazing and cutting. Winter overland flow velocities were significantly higher than in summer, varying between 0.004 m/s (Rushes, November) and 0.034 m/s (Rushes, June); and velocities significantly increased after cutting varying between 0.006 m/s (Hay meadows, July) and 0.054 m/s (Hay meadows, September). These results show that seasonal vegetation change should be incorporated into flood modelling, as cycles of surface roughness in grasslands strongly modify overland flow, potentially having a large impact on downstream flood peak and timing. Our data also showed that Darcy-Weisbach roughness approximations greatly over-estimated measured flow velocities.     

Comparison of migration‐based location and detection methods for microseismic events

Microseismic monitoring in the oil and gas industry commonly uses migration‐based methods to locate very weak microseismic events. The objective of this study is to compare the most popular migration‐based methods on a synthetic dataset that simulates a strike‐slip source mechanism event with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio recorded by surface receivers (vertical components). The results show the significance of accounting for the known source mechanism in the event detection and location procedures. For detection and location without such a correction, the ability to detect weak events is reduced. We show both numerically and theoretically that neglecting the source mechanism by using only absolute values of the amplitudes reduces noise suppression during stacking and, consequently, limits the possibility to retrieve weak microseismic events. On the other hand, even a simple correction to the data polarization used with otherwise ineffective methods can significantly improve detections and locations. A simple stacking of the data with a polarization correction provided clear event detection and location, but even better results were obtained for those data combined with methods that are based on semblance and cross‐correlation.     

Changes in the age of New Zealand farmers: Problems for the future?

Earlier research shows that between 1971 and 1981, the number of farmers in New Zealand increased and their average age decreased, whereas between 1981 and 1991, the opposite trend occurred. This article addresses the issue of change in the average age of farmers since 1991 using recent census data. It reviews the difficulties in obtaining good data and describes the adjustments need to be made to obtain a consistent data series from 1971 to 2006. The long-term trend for increasing age of farmers and farm workers continues. This demographic aspect of farm structural change is then discussed in terms of the sustainability of farming by reference to productivity and potential problems with succession.     

Community collaboration and climate change research in the Canadian Arctic

Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic.     

Isotopic fingerprints on lacustrine organic matter from Laguna Potrok Aike (southern Patagonia, Argentina) reflect environmental changes during the last 16,000 years

A combination of carbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN), Rock Eval-analyses, and stable isotope values of bulk nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and organic carbon (δ¹³C_org) was used to characterize bulk organic matter (OM) of a piston core from the Patagonian maar lake Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina) for the purpose of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Sedimentary data were compared with geochemical signatures of potential OM sources from Laguna Potrok Aike and its catchment area to identify the sources of sedimentary OM. Correlation patterns between isotopic data and TOC/TN ratios allowed differentiation of five distinct phases with different OM composition. Before 8470 calibrated ¹⁴C years before present (cal. yrs BP) and after 7400 cal. yrs BP, isotopic and organo-geochemical fingerprints indicate that the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike consist predominantly of soil and diatom OM with varying admixtures of cyanobacterial and aquatic macrophyte OM. For a short phase of the early Holocene (ca. 8470–7400 cal. yrs BP), however, extremely high input of soil OM is implied by isotopic fingerprints. Previous seismic and geochronological results indicate a severe lake-level drop of 33 m below present-day shortly before 6590 cal. yrs BP. It is suggested that this lake level drop was accompanied by increased erosion of shore banks and channel incision enhancing soil OM deposition in the lake basin. Thus, isotopic data can be linked to hydrological variations at Laguna Potrok Aike and allow a more precise dating of this extremely low lake level. An isotopic mixing model was used including four different sources (soil, cyanobacteria, diatom and aquatic macrophyte OM) to model OM variations and the model results were compared with quantitative microfossil data.     

Atom Probe Tomography: Development and Application to the Geosciences

Atom probe tomography (APT) is an analytical technique that provides quantitative three‐dimensional elemental and isotopic analyses at sub‐nanometre resolution across the whole periodic table. Although developed and mostly used in the materials science and semiconductor fields, recent years have seen increasing development and application in the geoscience and planetary science disciplines. Atom probe studies demonstrate compositional complexity at the nanoscale and provide fundamental new insights into the atom‐scale mechanisms taking place in minerals over geological time. Here, we provide an overview of APT, including the historical development and technical aspects of the instrumentation, and the fundamentals of data acquisition, data processing and data reconstruction. We also review previous studies and highlight the potential future applications of nanoscale geochemical studies of natural materials.     

Member checking in human geography: interpreting divergent understandings of performativity in a student space

In human geography, member checking is now routine practice for upholding rigour in qualitative studies, yet it can result in conflicting opinions regarding research interpretations. Here we reflect upon divergent outcomes from member checking research exploring the nature of student experiences in a specific space of a Canadian university law school. While member checking did not yield acceptance of the initial interpretations by all informants, we argue that rather than invalidating our findings, the very disagreement exposed through member checks added to our analyses in important ways. As such, results refuted by informants should not necessarily be discarded in human geography research.     

Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: the case of Vancouver,Canada

Natural Hazards - Disaster risk reduction should anticipate how future natural hazard risk would be influenced by changes in urban vulnerability. This paper investigates the effect of one key...