Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Coupling an ocean wave model to an atmospheric general circulation model

A coupled model, consisting of an ocean wave model and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), is integrated under permanent July conditions. The wave model is forced by the AGCM wind stress, whereas the wind waves modify the AGCM surface fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat. We investigate the following aspects of the coupled model: how realistic are the wave fields, how strong is the coupling, and how sensitive is the atmospheric circulation to the spatially and temporally varying wave field. The wave climatology of the coupled model compares favorably with observational data. The interaction between the two models is largest (although weak) in the storm track in the Southern Hemisphere. Young windsea, which is associated with enhanced surface fluxes is generated mostly in the equatorward frontal area of an individual cyclone. However, the enhancement of the surface fluxes is too small to significantly modify the climatological mean atmospheric circulation.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

An upper limit on the aperture separation of ion drift meters

An upper limit has been calculated on the effective aperture separation or detector thickness of ion drift meters of two fundamental types. The limit applies to meters which compare currents collected by detectors with different view directions at the same retarding potential and to meters which measure the entire thermal ion distribution function. For both types, a single scanned detector may be employed instead of multiple detectors, in which case the limit applies to twice the radius of curvature of the path followed by the detector aperture during a scan, (i.e. the diameter of a spinning payload). The limit was found to be important in two cases. First, in the F region on spacecraft with stringent electrostatic cleanliness requirements, the 10% error limit was found to be 40 cm. Second, in the E region, the limit was found to be 1 cm.Originally submitted to the journalSpace Science Instrumentation.Deceased.     

Crustal structure of the Rhenish Massif: results of deep seismic reflection lines Dekorp 2-North and 2-North-Q

The reflection seismic line DEKORP 2-N reveals an almost complete cross section through the Rhenohercynian Zone, the most external part of the Variscan orogen in Europe.The northern part of DEKORP 2-N and a NE-directed branch (2-N-Q) reveal the Cretaceous of the Münsterland basin and the underlying folded Palaeozoic rocks. The northward decreasing intensity of folding is depicted in great detail by the highly reflective Late Carboniferous coal-measures and deeper reflections down to the level of the Givetian/Frasnian shallow-water carbonates.In the Devonian and older rocks of the Rhenish Massif, bedding is only represented by relatively weak, short and irregular reflections. These are truncated by stronger, southward dipping reflections, which exhibit the listric curvature and flat/ramp geometry characteristic of faults. In the northern part of the section, the thrusts appear to be blind. From the Ebbe Anticline southwards, prominent reflections can be correlated with important thrust faults known from the surface, such as the Ebbe-, Siegen-, Müsen- and Sackpfeife- Thrusts, as well as further important thrust faults in the Lahn- and Dill Synclines. The basal thrust of the extremely thin-skinned Giessen Nappe is only recognizable for a very short distance.At depth, the thrusts flatten out in a relatively transparent zone between 3–5 s TWT, with strongly reflective bands at its bottom and top. The transparent zone might correlate with a high-conductivity layer detected in a magnetotelluric survey; it represents either graphitic metapelites or a zone with an interconnected, brine-filled pore space. The seismic record relates either to lithological differences, or to rheological boundaries.The lower crust in the north is characterized by a relatively transparent zone, which wedges out towards south under the northern margin of the Siegen Anticline. Comparisons with a similar feature in the ECORS profile »Nord de la France« suggest that the transparent zones in both sections correspond to a pre-Palaeozoic basement, such as it underlies the Brabant Massif. Further south, the lower crust is increasingly reflective.The curvilinear, thrust-related reflections are cut by a conjugate set of much weaker, N- and S-dipping reflectors indicating a later deformation with pure shear. Displacement of some marker reflections suggests late- or post-Variscan compression.In an alternative interpretation, these straight and weak reflections represent the only thrust faults, while the curvilinear elements might relate to bedding.A southward rise of the Moho from approx. 11 to 8.5 s TWT is probably due to Tertiary rifting.

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Zusammenfassung Das reflexionsseismische Profil DEKORP 2-N stellt einen fast vollständigen Querschnitt durch das Rhenohercynikum dar.Der nördliche Teil des Profiles 2-N sowie ein SW/NE-verlaufender Abzweig (2-N-Q) zeigen die Transgression der Münsterländer Kreide und das unterlagernde gefaltete Paläozoikum. Schichtgebundene Reflektoren (flözführendes Karbon, devonischer Massenkalk) bilden das Ausklingen der variscischen Faltung nach NW detailliert ab.In den devonischen und vordevonischen Sedimenten des rechtsrheinischen Schiefergebirges erzeugt die Schichtung nur relativ schwache, kurze und unregelmäßige Reflexionen. Diese werden von stärkeren, südfallenden Reflektoren abgeschnitten, die aufgrund ihrer listrischen Krümmung und flat/ramp-Geometrie wahrscheinlich als Überschiebungen zu interpretieren sind. Im Nordteil des Schiefergebirges sind diese Überschiebungen offenbar blind, werden also nahe der Oberfläche durch Faltung kompensiert. Im Ebbe-Sattel und weiter südlich lassen sich die meisten der starken, südfallenden Reflektoren zweifelsfrei mit bekannten Großüberschiebungen korrelieren (Ebbe-, Siegen-, Müsen-, Sackpfeife-Ü, sowie weitere Überschiebungen in der Lahn- u. Dill-Mulde). Die Basisüberschiebung der Giessen-Decke wird nur teilweise abgebildet.Zur Tiefe hin zeigen die Überschiebungen ein zunehmend flacheres Einfallen, und verschwinden in einer relativ transparenten Zone zwischen 3 und 5 s TWT, die im Hangenden und Liegenden durch dünne, stark reflektive Zonen begrenzt ist. Diese transparente Zone entspricht möglicherweise einer Zone hoher integrierter Leitfähigkeit, die in einem begleitenden magnetotellurischen Experiment nachgewiesen worden ist; es handelt sich entweder um einen Graphit-führenden Phyllit-Horizont oder eine mächtigere permeable Zone mit Elektrolyt-gefülltem Porenraum. Die hochreflektiven Bänder über und unter der transparenten Zone entsprechen entweder lithologischen Kontrasten oder rheologischen Grenzen, die vermutlich von einer scherenden Verformung überprägt worden sind.Die Unterkruste im N-Teil des Profiles enthält einen relativ transparenten Bereich, der nach Süden hin unter dem Nordteil des Siegener Sattels keilförmig ausläuft. Ein ähnliches Bild zeigt der Nordteil des ECORS-Profiles »Nord de la France«. Die transparenten Bereiche beider Profile entsprechen wahrscheinlich einem prä-paläozoischen kristallinen Basement, das das Brabanter Massif unterlagert und sich rechtsrheinisch fortsetzt. Südlich des transparenten Keiles wird die Unterkruste zunehmend reflexionsreicher. Die listrisch gekrümmten, an Überschiebungen gebundenen Reflektoren werden von einem konjugierten System schwächerer, N- u. S-fallender Reflektoren abgeschnitten, die auf eine jüngere, bruchhafte Verformung durch reine Scherung hindeuten. Der Versatz einiger älterer Reflektoren deutet auf spät- oder postvariscische Kompression hin.In einer alternativen Interpretation werden nur diese jüngeren Reflektoren als Überschiebungen gedeutet; die älteren, gekrümmten Elemente müßten dann primären lithologischen Grenzen entsprechen.Die Moho steigt von ca. 11 s TWT im N auf 8.5 s TWT unter dem Taunus an. Die Krustenverdünnung im Süden geht wahrscheinlich auf Dehnung im Tertiär zurück.

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Résumé Le profil sismique par réflexion DEKORP-2-N représente une transversale quasiment complète à travers la zone rhénohercynienne. La partie septentrionale du DEKORP-2-N ainsi qu'une branche de direction SW-NE (2-N-Q) mettent en évidence la transgression du Crétacé du Münsterland sur le Paléozoïque sous-jacent plissé. Des réflecteurs liés à la stratification (à savoir: le Houiller et les calcaires de plate-forme dévoniens) illustrent de façon détaillée la diminution vers le nord de l'intensité du plissement varisque.Dans les sédiments dévoniens et pré-dévoniens du Massif Rhénan à l'est du Rhin, la stratification ne fournit que que des réflexions relativement faibles, courtes et irrégulières. Elles sont tronquées par des réflecteurs plus intenses, à pendage sud qui, en raison de leur courbure listrique et de leur géométrie en «flat/ramp», doivent être interprétés comme des chevauchements. Dans la partie septentrionale du Massif, ces chevauchements sont apparemment aveugles, c'est-à-dire qu'ils sont compensés, près de la surface, par le plissement. Dans l'anticlinal d'Ebbe, ainsi que plus au sud, la plupart des réflecteurs intenses à plongement sud peuvent être corrélés avec des chevauchements majeurs connus, tels ceux de Ebbe, Siegen, Müsen, Sackpfeife et d'autres encore dans les synclinaux de la Lahn et de la Dill. Le chevauchement basai de la nappe de Giessen n'est que partiellement représenté.Les chevauchements deviennent de plus en plus plats en profondeur pour disparaître dans une zone relativement transparente qui se situe entre 3–5 sec TWT. Celle-ci est prise en sandwich par des zones minces à forte réflectivité. La zone transparente correspond probablement à une zone de conductivité intégrée élevée dont l'existence a par ailleurs été démontrée dans un essai magnétotellurique mené parallèlement. Il s'agit soit d'un horizon phyllitique graphiteux, soit d'une zone perméable plus épaisse dont les pores sont remplis d'électrolyte. Les bandes à haute réflectivité au-dessus et en-dessous de la zone transparente correspondent soit à des contrastes lithologiques, soit à des limites rhéologiques probablement accentuées par la déformation cisaillante.La croûte inférieure dans la partie septentrionale du profil comporte un domaine relativement transparent qui s'amincit vers le S et se termine, en dessous de la partie nord de l'anticlinal de Siegen, en forme de coin. La partie nord du profil ECORS «Nord de la France» montre une image semblable.Les domaines transparents des deux profils correspondent vraisemblablement à un soubassement cristallin pré-paléozoïque qui est sousjacent au Paléozoïque du Massif du Brabant et se prolonge vers l'est au-delà du Rhin. Au sud du coin transparent, la réflectivité de la croûte inférieure va en augmentant. Les réflecteurs listriques liés à des chevauchements sont recoupés par un système conjugué de réflecteurs plus faibles à plongement nord et sud qui indiquent des failles plus récentes. Le déplacement de quelques réflecteurs plus anciens suggère l'effet d'une compression tardiou post-varisque.Dans une interprétation alternative, seuls ces réflecteurs plus récents sont considérés comme correspondant à des chevauchements. Dans ce cas, les éléments courbes plus anciens devraient représenter des limites lithologiques primaires.Le Moho s'élève à partir de 11 sec TWT environ au nord jusqu'à 8.5 sec TWT en-dessous du Taunus. L'amincissement crustal au sud résulterait du régime de distension survenu au Tertiaire.

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DEKORP 2 Nord. x-t- ray-tracing'a. 6,0 6,6 /, — 7,0 8,2 /. 6,25 /. 28 30 . , .

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Abbreviations MORB Mid-Ocean Ridge Basalt - TWT two-way travel time, seconds (s) - CMP common mid-point - VP vibration point - SNR signal to noise ratio     

Holocene record of productivity in the NW Iberian continental shelf

A multiproxy approach (textural characteristics, heavy metal concentrations and benthic foraminifera data) was adopted to study the OMEX core KSGX 40, collected at the Galicia Mud Deposit (NW Iberian outer continental shelf) and recording the last ca. 4.8 ka cal BP. Geochemical profiles of Fe, Mn, Zn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Al and Ca show significant temporal variations. Benthic foraminifera productivity proxy suggests that the recorded muddy events were contemporaneous of a higher C_org flux to the marine benthic environment. The higher flux of organic matter, following a long-term intensification of the upwelling and coinciding with a finer sedimentation, led to depressed levels of oxygen beneath the water-sediments interface and to early diagenetic processes of several redox-sensitive elements.     

Land-surface scheme validation using the Oklahoma Atmospheric Surface-layer Instrumentation System (OASIS) and Oklahoma Mesonet data: Preliminary results

Summary The Oklahoma Atmospheric Surface-layer Instrumentation System (OASIS) is a recently-developed observational system that collects, archives, and quality controls atmospheric, surface, and soil data in real-time from 90 stations across Oklahoma. Ten of the 90 sites, termed “super sites”, are equipped with additional sonic anemometry and four-component net radiometers to provide complete observations of the surface energy balance. Oklahoma Mesonet and OASIS data are used in this study to validate the sensitivity and accuracy of a land-surface scheme within a numerical prediction model. The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic mesoscale model developed by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma. The land-surface model (LSM) used within ARPS is the Interactions Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) scheme. Mesonet and OASIS data collected from the super site located in Norman, Oklahoma, are used as verification for the ISBA. Research presented in this study outlines the challenges in developing, maintaining, and using in-situ data for model validation. Such problems as instrument error, surface heterogeneity, and non-closure of the surface energy budget limit data accuracy. Preliminary results of model validation focus on the sensitivity of the soil physics within the ISBA scheme. Model sensitivity to vegetation cover, surface roughness, and soil type are investigated. Furthermore, several recent improvements to ISBA are evaluated and compared to observations. This study concludes that the sensitivity of the ISBA to a priori soil and vegetation type is detrimental for this scheme to be used in a mesoscale model without improved treatment of surface heterogeneity. Received November 18, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001     

Late Cretaceous reactivation of major crustal shear zones in northern Namibia: constraints from apatite fission track analysis

Namibia's passive continental margin records a long history of tectonic activity since the Proterozoic. The orogenic belt produced during the collision of the Congo and Kalahari Cratons in the Early Proterozoic led to a zone of crustal weakness, which became the preferred location for tectonism during the Phanerozoic. The Pan-African Damara mobile belt forms this intraplate boundary in Namibia and its tectonostratigraphic zones are defined by ductile shear zones, where the most prominent is described as the Omaruru Lineament–Waterberg Thrust (OML–WT). The prominance of the continental margin escarpment is diminished in the area of the Central and Northern Zone of the Damara belt where the shear zones are located. This area has been targeted with a set of 66 outcrop samples over a 550-km-long, 60-km-broad coast-parallel transect from the top of the escarpment in the south across the Damara sector to the Kamanjab Inlier in the north. Apatite fission track age and length data from all samples reveal a regionally consistent cooling event. Thermal histories derived by forward modelling bracket this phase of accelerated cooling in the Late Cretaceous. Maximum palaeotemperatures immediately prior to the onset of cooling range from ca. 120 to ca. 60 °C with the maximum occurring directly south of the Omaruru Lineament. Because different palaeotemperatures indicate different burial depth at a given time, the amount of denudation can be estimated and used to constrain vertical displacements of the continental crust. We interpret this cooling pattern as the geomorphic response to reactivation of basement structures caused by a change in spreading geometry in the South Atlantic and South West Indian Oceans.     

Genesis and distribution of mineral waters as a consequence of recent lithospheric dynamics: the Rhenish Massif,Central Europe

Three major, interdependent processes control the genesis and distribution of mineral and thermal waters in the Rhenish Massif, Central Europe: (a) Magmatic processes in the upper mantle provide most of the CO₂ to produce bicarbonate waters in shallow aquifers. (b) Extension of the brittle upper crust enables the ascent of sodium chloride waters. (c) Uplift and erosion shape the massif's relief, which determines the extent of flow systems and the distribution of thermal springs. The chemistry of mineral waters further depends on the aquifers' mineral composition. A comprehensive set of hydrological, chemical, tectonic and geophysical data on the Rhenish Massif has been compiled. It was used to classify the mineral waters and to map the spatial distribution of water properties. The composition of cuttings from several representative wells producing different water types shows that the hydrothermal alteration of the aquifer rocks consists mainly of kaolinization of chlorite and dissolution of feldspar. Numerical transport simulations favour two modes of groundwater flow: topography-driven flow and the pressure-driven ascent of basement brines along active faults. Thermal convection is less important.