大陆内部长余震序列及其对地震风险评估的启示

板块构造学说的最有力的特征之一,是已知的板块运动让我们对板块边界未来大地震的发震位置和平均复发间隔有更清晰的认识。然而,板块构造学说却不能预测板块内的地震何时何地发生,因为理想的板块内部是不会变形的。因此,板块内部的地震风险评估过于依靠如下假设：从有限的历史记录中得到的小地震发震位置能够反映出连续变形的地区,而变形将诱发未来大地震[1]。然而,本文将要说明的是,最近许多这样的小地震很可能是几百年前发生过的大地震的余震。文中将给出一个简单的模型,并由此模型得出：余震序列的长度和断层加载速率呈反比关系。发生在缓慢变形的大陆内部的余震序列,其持续时间与在快速加载的板块边界所观测到的典型的10年尺度余震序列相比要长得多。因为这些预测与观测结果相符,所以将大陆内部地震看作稳态地震活动的一般做法高估了目前地震活跃地区的地震危险性,而低估了其他地区的地震风险。     

Can sand dunes be used to study historic storm events?

Knowing the long‐term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long‐term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Variability of fluvial sediment supply to the Laptev Sea continental margin during Late Weichselian to Holocene times: implications from clay–mineral records

Three sediment cores from the Laptev Sea continental margin were investigated for their clay mineralogy by X-ray diffraction to study the fluvial sediment supply since the late Weichselian. In the study area, the clay-mineral composition of surface sediments is characterized by distinct regional variations. The source area for smectite in the eastern Eurasian Basin is the Putoran Plateau drained by the Khatanga and Yenisei rivers. Currents caused by river discharge and the inflow of Atlantic water masses along the Eurasian continental margin are responsible for sediment distribution. In the sediment cores, smectite and illite contents show an opposite trend which mainly results from variable smectite supply. During MIS 2 the amount of smectite on the Laptev Sea continental margin never exceeds 10 rel.%. Probably, reduced river discharge and the lowered sea level during MIS 2 caused a decreased sediment supply to the Laptev Sea. Additionally, the Putoran Plateau was covered by an ice sheet during the Late Weichselian preventing the erosion of smectite-rich soils. In contrast, maximum smectite contents (up to 30 rel.%) in Holocene sediments result from increased sediment input by the Khatanga River and from the Kara Sea through the Vilkitsky Strait and via St. Anna Trough into the western Laptev Sea.     

Realistic Solar Convection Simulations

We report on realistic simulations of solar surface convection that are essentially parameter-free, but include detailed physics in the equation of state and radiative energy exchange. The simulation results are compared quantitatively with observations. Excellent agreement is obtained for the distribution of the emergent continuum intensity, the profiles of weak photospheric lines, the p-mode frequencies, the asymmetrical shape of the mode velocity and intensity spectra, the p-mode excitation rate, and the depth of the convection zone. We describe how solar convection is non-local. It is driven from a thin surface thermal boundary layer where radiative cooling produces low entropy gas which forms the cores of the downdrafts in which most of the buoyancy work occurs. Turbulence and vorticity are mostly confined to the intergranular lanes and underlying downdrafts. Finally, we present some preliminary results on magneto-convection.     

Dissolved oxygen dynamics in a eutrophic estuary,Upper Newport Bay,California

Eutrophication often causes hypoxia in estuarine and coastal systems, but the mechanisms that control hypoxic events vary among estuaries and are often difficult to discern. We monitored surface and bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Upper Newport Bay (UNB), a tidally mixed estuary in southern California subject to anthropogenic nutrient loading, eutrophication and hypoxia. Our goal was to identify the environmental factors regulating DO dynamics. Six hypoxic events occurred between June and November and were associated with a combination of low solar radiation, increased freshwater discharge following precipitation, and enhanced haline stratification during reduced tidal range periods. At the head of the estuary, high macroalgal biomass and pronounced haline stratification resulted in high DO in the surface layer and low DO in the bottom layer. Oxygen-rich and oxygen-poor waters were transported down-estuary by ebb tides, resulting in DO heterogeneity throughout the UNB. Cross-wavelet analysis illustrated the down-estuary propagation of high/low DO signal correlated with the phases of diurnal photosynthetic and semi-diurnal tidal cycles.     

Monitoring glacier and supra-glacier lakes from space in Mt. Qomolangma region of the Himalayas on the Tibetan Plateau in China

Because of the large number and remoteness, satellite data, including microwave data and optical imagery, have commonly been used in alpine glaciers surveys. Using remote sensing and Geographical Information System （GIS） techniques, the paper presents the results of a multitemporal satellite glacier extent mapping and glacier changes by glacier sizes in the Mt. Qomolangma region at the northern slopes of the middle Himalayas over the Tibetan Plateau. Glaciers in this region have both retreated and advanced in the past 35 years, with retreat dominating. The glacier retreat area was 3.23 km2 （or o.75 km^2 yr^-1 during 1974 and 1976, 8.68 km^2 （or 0.36 km^2 yr^-1 during 1976 and 1992, 1.44 km^2 （or 0.12 km^2 yr^-1） during 1992-2ooo. 1.14 km^2 （or 0.22 km^2 yr^-1 during 2000-2003, and 0.52 km^2 （or 0.07 km^2 yr^-1 during 2003-2008, respectively. While supra-glacier lakes on the debris-terminus of the Rongbuk Glacier were enlarged dramatically at the same time, from 0.05 km^2 in 1974 increased to 0.71 km^2 in 2008, which was more than 13 times larger in the last 35 years. In addition, glacier changes also showed spatial differences, for example, glacier retreat rate was the fastest at glacier termini between 5400 and 5700 m a.s.l than at other elevations. The result also shows that glaciers in the middle Himalayas retreat almost at a same pace with those in the western Himalayas.     

Clay minerals as an indicator of the accumulation of the Upper Quaternary deposits in the St. Anna Trough (Kara Sea)

This paper is devoted to the studies of clay minerals from two cores collected in the northern and central regions of the St. Anna Trough, the largest trough of the Kara Sea. The Upper Quaternary glacial, glaciomarine, and marine deposits are characterized by various contents of kaolinite, chlorite, illite, and smectite. It is established that, from older to younger deposits, the amounts of kaolinite and chlorite generally decrease, while those of illite and smectite, on the contrary, increase. A joint analysis of the distributions of clay and heavy minerals over the section allowed us to refine the position of the sources for the terrigenous matter and their temporal variability. It is shown the changes in the sources of supply were directly related to the climate changes that occurred when passing from the glacial to marine sedimentation environments.     

The coupled oceanographic–tomographic analysis and prediction system: A practical means for utilizing high frequency tomography in the world's oceans

Details are presented of a methodology that utilizes acoustic travel time information in an ocean circulation model. Recent developments of this model-oriented tomography are discussed, representing some significant improvements over earlier formulations. More accurate means of determining the arrival times of specific ray paths are detailed, along with a means of estimating possible errors in the calculated travel times. The assimilation of the observed arrival time information into an ocean model is achieved using a Kalman gain, and more advanced expressions for calculating the Kalman gain are presented. A formulation to account for errors in the stated positions of a source and receiver is also presented. It is shown that the methodology performs fairly well in reproducing observed travel time anomalies. However, the model-predicted anomalies along a specific ray path may not always track the observed anomalies for that path when assimilating multiple ray path data. Results indicate that additional work is required to determine a means of handling observed arrival time data without having prior knowledge of the magnitude of errors in the observations. Results from simulation experiments provide estimates of: (1) potential errors when the travel times for ray paths are only sampled at discreet intervals as opposed to continuously and (2) to what degree acoustic data can be expected to “correct” model-predicted fields.     

A double spike for osmium analysis of highly radiogenic samples

Geologic samples containing highly radiogenic Os (molybdenites and low-level, highly radiogenic (LLHR) samples) have no internal means by which to correct for mass fractionation during isotopic measurement by mass spectrometry. We describe a double spike for use with highly radiogenic samples, created by combining isotopically enriched ¹⁸⁸Os and ¹⁹⁰Os. Spiking molybdenite and other highly radiogenic minerals with this tracer allows for a fractionation correction, as well as a more reliable determination of common Os relative to analysis using single spikes.

The precise isotopic composition of the double spike is determined by a calibration against natural Os, in which two separate measurements are necessary: one each for the pure double spike and the spike–standard mixture. An estimate of the true composition of the spike is obtained by least squares approximation, and the errors are obtained by Monte Carlo methods. Sample analyses are then much more straightforward than the calibration because isotopic compositions of all components are known a priori.

Results obtained with a mixed Re-double Os spike demonstrate an improved reproducibility over individual ¹⁸⁵Re and ¹⁹⁰Os spikes. For an Archean in-house molybdenite standard we now observe a reproducibility of 0.08%. The ability to make a fractionation correction is essential for Os measurements made by ion counting. With the double Os spike, young samples and those with low Re contents (i.e., LLHR) can now be accurately analyzed. The ¹⁸⁸Os–¹⁹⁰Os double spike also allows a determination of the common Os contents of highly radiogenic samples. Common Os is poorly determined for ancient samples with high concentrations of ¹⁸⁷Os, which fortunately are not sensitive to estimates of common Os. Common Os can be reasonably well determined for younger samples and those with low Re contents. We report a common Os concentration of 0.4±0.1 ppb for an 11 Ma molybdenite. Consideration of common Os content is important for age determination of young samples and LLHR samples, and is not possible by other published means of Os analysis.