Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4^°) and regional (resolution 1/10^°) domains with forecast ranges of +?7 and +?3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing +?10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.     

A GIS-Based GOD Model and Hazard Index Analysis: The Quaternary Coastal Collo Aquifer (NE-Algeria)

The quaternary coastal Collo aquifer in northeast Algeria (NE Algeria) marks an important local water resource supporting domestic, industrial and agricultural activities. The aquifer shows signs of contamination due to the existence of various pollution sources, especially nitrogen compounds. Focusing the local identification of key vulnerable zones and related main hazard types for wise future water management, the present study highlights results from a coupled analysis of the well-established Geographical Information System (GIS)-based GOD (groundwater occurrence, overall aquifer class, depth to groundwater) hazard index analysis and the COST Action 620 plan. Most prevalent hazard types in the study area were identified as the urban/residential areas without public sewage systems, landfill and agricultural/pasturing areas. Regarding the vulnerability analysis particularly the northern aquifer region is endangered, dominated by high (22.4%) and moderate (27.4%) vulnerability classes. Central, western and southern aquifer regions are characterized by low (23.3%) and very low (26.9%) vulnerability classes. Overall, these GOD-derived results are in good agreement with earlier results obtained by the more complex DRASTIC approach. Final risk assessment and validation related to 2014/2015 nitrate sampling campaigns indicate that “high risk” and “very high risk” classes only apply to a small part of the study area in the northern sector (8%), whereas the main part (>60%) broadly affecting the central, western and southern sector only bears a low to very low risk of water pollution. Apart from a future-oriented groundwater abstraction strategy it is recommended to update the evaluation regularly to effectively consider dynamic changes of local anthropogenic activities and hazards.     

Postglacial to Holocene landscape evolution and process rates in steep alpine catchments

Climate change and high magnitude mass wasting events pose adverse societal effects and hazards, especially in alpine regions. Quantification of such geomorphic processes and their rates is therefore critical but is often hampered by the lack of appropriate techniques and the various spatiotemporal scales involved in these studies. Here we exploit both in situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) and carbon-14 (¹⁴C) nuclide concentrations for deducing exposure ages and tracing of sediment through small alpine debris flow catchments in central Switzerland. The sediment cascade and modern processes we track from the source areas, through debris flow torrents to their final export out into sink regions with cosmogenic nuclides over an unprecedented five-year time series with seasonal resolution. Data from a seismic survey and a 90 m core revealed a glacially overdeepened basin, filled with glacial and paraglacial sediments. Surface exposure dating of fan boulders and radiocarbon ages constrain the valley fill from the last deglaciation until the Holocene and show that most of the fan existed in early Holocene times already. Current fan processes are controlled by episodic debris flow activity, snow (firn) and rock avalanches. Field investigations, digital elevation models (DEMs) of difference and geomorphic analysis agree with sediment fingerprinting with cosmogenic nuclides, highlighting that the bulk of material exported today at the outlet of the subcatchments derives from the lower fans. Cosmogenic nuclide concentrations steadily decrease from headwater sources to distal fan channels due to the incorporation of material with lower nuclide concentrations. Further downstream the admixture of sediment from catchments with less frequent debris flow activity can dilute the cosmogenic nuclide signals from debris flow dominated catchments but may also reach thresholds where buffering is limited. Consequently, careful assessment of boundary conditions and driving forces is required when apparent denudation rates derived from cosmogenic nuclide analysis are upscaled to larger regions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Feasibility of utilizing wavelet phase to map the CO2 plume at the Ketzin pilot site,Germany

Spectral decomposition is a powerful tool that can provide geological details dependent upon discrete frequencies. Complex spectral decomposition using inversion strategies differs from conventional spectral decomposition methods in that it produces not only frequency information but also wavelet phase information. This method was applied to a time‐lapse three‐dimensional seismic dataset in order to test the feasibility of using wavelet phase changes to detect and map injected carbon dioxide within the reservoir at the Ketzin carbon dioxide storage site, Germany. Simplified zero‐offset forward modelling was used to help verify the effectiveness of this technique and to better understand the wavelet phase response from the highly heterogeneous storage reservoir and carbon dioxide plume. Ambient noise and signal‐to‐noise ratios were calculated from the raw data to determine the extracted wavelet phase. Strong noise caused by rainfall and the assumed spatial distribution of sandstone channels in the reservoir could be correlated with phase anomalies. Qualitative and quantitative results indicate that the wavelet phase extracted by the complex spectral decomposition technique has great potential as a practical and feasible tool for carbon dioxide detection at the Ketzin pilot site.     

High spatio-temporal resolution measurements of cohesive sediment erosion

In this study, we present a novel approach to measure fundamental processes of cohesive sediment erosion. The experimental setup consists of a laboratory erosion flume (SETEG) and a photogrammetric method to detect sediment erosion (PHOTOSED). Detailed data are presented for three erosion experiments, which were conducted with a natural non-cohesive/cohesive sediment mixture at increasing sediment depths (4, 8, 16 cm). In each experiment, the sediment was exposed to a set of incrementally increasing shear stresses and the erosion was measured dynamically, pixel-based, and approximate to the process scale given the resolution of PHOTOSED. This enables us to distinguish between (i) individual emerging erosion spots caused by surface erosion and (ii) large holes torn open by detached aggregate chunks. Moreover, interrelated processes were observed, such as (iii) propagation of the erosion in the longitudinal and lateral direction leading to merging of disconnected erosion areas and (iv) progressive vertical erosion of already affected areas. By complementing the (bulk) erosion volume profiles with additional quantitative variables, which contain spatial information (erosion area, specific deepening, number of disconnected erosion areas), conclusions on the erosion behaviour (and the dominant processes) can be drawn without requiring qualitative information (such as visual observations). In addition, we provide figures indicating the spatio-temporal erosion variability and the (bulk) erosion rates for selected time periods. We evaluate the variability by statistical quantities and show that significant erosion is mainly confined to only a few events during temporal progression, but then considerably exceeds the time-averaged median of the erosion (factors between 7.0 and 16.0). Further, we point to uncertainties in using (bulk) erosion rates to assess cohesive sediment erosion and particularly the underlying processes. As a whole, the results emphasise the need to measure cohesive sediment erosion with high spatio-temporal resolution to obtain reliable and robust information. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Towards the representation of groundwater in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle with significant interactions with soil hydrological processes. Recent studies have demonstrated that incorporating groundwater hydrology in land surface models (LSMs) considerably improves the prediction of the partitioning of water components (e.g., runoff and evapotranspiration) at the land surface. However, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), an LSM developed in the United Kingdom, does not yet have an explicit representation of groundwater. We propose an implementation of a simplified groundwater flow boundary parameterization (JULES-GFB), which replaces the original free drainage assumption in the default model (JULES-FD). We tested the two approaches under a controlled environment for various soil types using two synthetic experiments: (1) single-column and (2) tilted-V catchment, using a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrological model (ParFlow) as a benchmark for JULES’ performance. In addition, we applied our new JULES-GFB model to a regional domain in the UK, where groundwater is the key element for runoff generation. In the single-column infiltration experiment, JULES-GFB showed improved soil moisture dynamics in comparison with JULES-FD, for almost all soil types (except coarse soils) under a variety of initial water table depths. In the tilted-V catchment experiment, JULES-GFB successfully represented the dynamics and the magnitude of saturated and unsaturated storage against the benchmark. The lateral water flow produced by JULES-GFB was about 50% of what was produced by the benchmark, while JULES-FD completely ignores this process. In the regional domain application, the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) for the total runoff simulation showed an average improvement from 0.25 for JULES-FD to 0.75 for JULES-GFB. The mean bias of actual evapotranspiration relative to the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) product was improved from −0.22 to −0.01 mm day⁻¹. Our new JULES-GFB implementation provides an opportunity to better understand the interactions between the subsurface and land surface processes that are dominated by groundwater hydrology.     

Ceres’ spectral link to carbonaceous chondrites—Analysis of the dark background materials

Ceres’ surface has commonly been linked with carbonaceous chondrites (CCs) by ground‐based telescopic observations, because of its low albedo, flat to red‐sloped spectra in the visible and near‐infrared (VIS/NIR) wavelength region, and the absence of distinct absorption bands, though no currently known meteorites provide complete spectral matches to Ceres. Spatially resolved data of the Dawn Framing Camera (FC) reveal a generally dark surface covered with bright spots exhibiting reflectance values several times higher than Ceres’ background. In this work, we investigated FC data from High Altitude Mapping Orbit (HAMO) and Ceres eXtended Juling (CXJ) orbit (~140 m/pixel) for global spectral variations. We found that the cerean surface mainly differs by spectral slope over the whole FC wavelength region (0.4–1.0 μm). Areas exhibiting slopes ?1 constitute only ~3% of the cerean surface and mainly occur in the bright material in and around young craters, whereas slopes ≥?10% μm^?1 occur on more than 90% of the cerean surface; the latter being denoted as Ceres’ background material in this work. FC and Visible and Infrared Spectrometer (VIR) spectra of this background material were compared to the suite of CCs spectrally investigated so far regarding their VIS/NIR region and 2.7 μm absorption, as well as their reflectance at 0.653 μm. This resulted in a good match to heated CI Ivuna (heated to 200–300 °C) and a better match for CM1 meteorites, especially Moapa Valley. This possibly indicates that the alteration of CM2 to CM1 took place on Ceres.     

Laboratory characterization of bent monocrystal wafers for Bragg X-ray spectroscopy

We describe our laboratory procedures for precise measurements of lattice surface profile, where Bragg reflection takes place, of bent monocrystal wafers. A comparison of X-ray spectrometer characteristics for perfect and real crystals is presented. The described procedures will be used to measure the properties of the crystals that will be used as the dispersive elements in the future solar X-ray spectrometers SolpeX and ChemiX.     

The planet formation imager

The Planet Formation Imager (PFI, www.planetformationimager.org) is a next-generation infrared interferometer array with the primary goal of imaging the active phases of planet formation in nearby star forming regions. PFI will be sensitive to warm dust emission using mid-infrared capabilities made possible by precise fringe tracking in the near-infrared. An L/M band combiner will be especially sensitive to thermal emission from young exoplanets (and their disks) with a high spectral resolution mode to probe the kinematics of CO and H₂O gas. In this paper, we give an overview of the main science goals of PFI, define a baseline PFI architecture that can achieve those goals, point at remaining technical challenges, and suggest activities today that will help make the Planet Formation Imager facility a reality.     

New insights into Southern Caucasian glacial–interglacial climate conditions inferred from Quaternary gastropod fauna

In the present study, we performed gastropod analyses on loess–palaeosol sequences from northeast Armenia (Southern Caucasia) covering at least three glacial–interglacial cycles. The elaborated ecostratigraphy shows significant patterns of species composition related to the succession of pedocomplexes and loess, respectively. Pedocomplexes included species that can be associated with high-grass to forest-steppe biomes, indicating increased humidity for these sections compared to the loess layers. In contrast, loess layers that relate to glacial periods are associated with gastropod species of semidesert environments with shrub- and shortgrass-steppes, indicating semiarid to arid conditions. Furthermore, the loess deposits do not show any evidence for cold-adapted gastropod species. Therefore, we suggest that average July temperatures in the study area were above 10 °C, even during periods of loess deposition. Consequently, we propose that the limiting factor for tree growth during glacial periods was aridity, rather than temperature. In addition, we observe environmental differences between the various glacial times, with our results indicating a trend towards steadily increasing aridity in Southern Caucasia across the Middle to Late Pleistocene.