A Conceptual Framework for Uncertainty Investigation in Map‐based Land Cover Change Modelling

Uncertainty research represents a research stream of high interest within the community of geographical information science. Its elements, terminology and typology are still under strong discussion and adopted methods for analysis are currently under intensive development. This paper presents a conceptual framework for systematic investigation of uncertainty which occurs in applications of land cover change modelling in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based on historical map data. Historical, in this context, means the map is old enough to allow identification of changes in landscape elements of interest, such as vegetation. To date such analyses are rarely conducted or not satisfactorily carried out, despite the fact that historical map data represent a potentially rich information source. The general validity and practicability of the framework for related applications is demonstrated with reference to one example in which forest cover change in Switzerland is investigated. The conceptual model consists of three domains in which main potential sources of uncertainty are systematically exposed. Existing links between data quality research and uncertainty are investigated to access the complex nature of uncertainty and to characterise the most suitable concepts for analysis. In accordance with these concepts appropriate methods and procedures are suggested to assess uncertainty in each domain. One domain is the production‐oriented amount of uncertainty which is inherent in the historical map. Vagueness and ambiguity represent suitable concepts for analysis. Transformation‐oriented uncertainty as the second domain occurs owing to editing and processing of digital data. Thereby, the suitable concept of uncertainty is error. The third domain is the application‐oriented uncertainty which occurs in comparing semantically different data. This domain relates to multi‐temporal discord which assumes the assessment of ‘equi‐temporal’ ambiguity and is thus connected to the production‐oriented domain. The framework provides an estimation of the overall amount of uncertainty. This can be linked to subsequent assessment of ‘fitness for use’. Thus the model provides a practicable and systematic approach to access the complex nature of uncertainty in the scope of land cover change modelling.     

Simultaneous normal faulting and extensional flexuring during rifting: an example from the southernmost Upper Rhine Graben

The southern end of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is formed by a major continental transfer zone, which was localised by the reactivation of ENE-oriented basement faults of Late Palaeozoic origin. A combination of subcrop data (derived from exploration wells and reflection seismic lines) and palaeostress analysis provided new constraints on the timing and kinematics of interacting basement faults. Rifting in the southern URG began in the Upper Priabonian under regional WNW–ESE-directed extension, oriented roughly perpendicular to the graben axis. In the study area, this led to the formation of NNE-trending half-grabens. Simultaneously, ENE-trending basement faults, situated in the area of the future Rhine-Bresse Transfer Zone (RBTZ), were reactivated in a sinistrally transtensive mode. In the sedimentary cover the strike-slip component was accommodated by the development of en-échelon aligned extensional flexures. Flexuring and interference between the differently oriented basement faults imposed additional, but locally confined extension in the sedimentary cover, which deviated by as much as 90° from the regional WNW–ESE extension. The interference of regional and local stresses led to a regime approaching radial extension at the intersection between the URG and RBTZ.     

Fluid flow impact on slope failure from 3D seismic data: a case study in the Storegga Slide

Analysis of three‐dimensional (3D) seismic data from the headwall area of the Storegga Slide on the mid‐Norwegian margin provides new insights into buried mass movements and their failure mechanisms. These mass movements are located above the Ormen Lange dome, a Tertiary dome structure, which hosts a large gas reservoir. Slope instabilities occurred as early as the start of the Plio‐Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles. The 3D seismic data provide geophysical evidence for gas that leaks from the reservoir and migrates upward into the shallow geosphere. Sediments with increased gas content might have liquefied during mobilization of the sliding and show different flow mechanisms than sediments containing less gas. In areas where there is no evidence for gas, the sediments remained intact. This stability is inherited by overlying strata. The distribution of gas in the shallow subsurface (<600 m) may explain the shape of the lower Storegga headwall in the Ormen Lange area.     

Earth hummocks (thúfur): new insights to their thermal characteristics and development in eastern Lesotho,southern Africa

The aspect‐controlled variations in soil freezing within earth hummocks of eastern Lesotho (southern Africa) are analysed. Ground thermal data were measured for an earth hummock from late autumn to early spring in 1995 and 1996, using Tinytalk? data loggers. During 1995, ground temperatures were recorded at 15 and 20 cm depth on the hummock north, east, south and west aspects, whilst in 1996 temperatures were recorded at 1 cm, 5 cm and 10 cm on the north and south aspects. The data from 1995 indicate that soil freezing commences on the hummock southern aspects and gradually progresses towards the western and northern aspects, whilst the eastern aspect remained unfrozen throughout winter. The data from 1996 indicate that a thick snow cover almost nullifies the temperature differences between the hummock northern and southern aspects. However, given the relative absence of snow during contemporary winters, freeze intensity and duration is longest on the hummock southern and western aspects, which helps explain earth hummock deformation (elongation and coalescence) in a southwesterly direction on slope gradients ≤3°. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

North Atlantic Oscillation – Concepts And Studies

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of previous studies and concepts concerning the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its recent homologue, the Arctic Oscillation/Northern Hemisphere annular mode (AO/NAM), are the most prominent modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter climate. The NAO teleconnection is characterised by a meridional displacement of atmospheric mass over the North Atlantic area. Its state is usually expressed by the standardised air pressure difference between the Azores High and the Iceland Low. ThisNAO index is a measure of the strength of the westerly flow (positive with strong westerlies, and vice versa). Together with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the NAO is a major source of seasonal to interdecadal variability in the global atmosphere. On interannual and shorter time scales, the NAO dynamics can be explained as a purely internal mode of variability of the atmospheric circulation. Interdecadal variability maybe influenced, however, by ocean and sea-ice processes.     

Local environmental action plans and the `glocalisation' of post-socialist governance: The Macedonian experience

Local Environmental Action Plans (LEAPs) are a useful starting point for the theoretical and empirical unravelling of the global post-Fordist socio-economic drive, within the framework of environmental policy devolution in Transition. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify the interconnected economic, social and political specifities involved in the formulation and institutionalisation of such projects in the Republic of Macedonia. Seven LEAPs - broadly representative of the immense micro-scale physical and social diversity of the country - have been selected for detailed review, so as to provide more fine-tuned insights that should be relevant for the wider LEAP process in Macedonia and beyond. Preliminary evidence about the realisation of these initiatives indicates that comprehensive implementation is highly dependent upon the realistic political and economic abilities (and interests) of local and national elites, plus international organisations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A diatomaceous origin for long-chain diols and mid-chain hydroxy methyl alkanoates widely occurring in quaternary marine sediments: indicators for high-nutrient conditions

For the first time a biological source for the long-chain alkyl 1,14-diols and 12-hydroxy methyl alkanoates, lipids widely occurring in the marine water column and sediments, has been identified. Cultures of Proboscia indica and Proboscia alata, rhizosolenoid diatoms belonging to the widespread diatom genus Proboscia, contain C₂₈, C_28:1, C₃₀, and C_30:1 alkyl 1,14-diols, and C₂₇ and C₂₉ 12-hydroxy methyl alkanoates as major neutral lipids. These components form a substantial fraction of lipid fractions from sediment traps or sediments, especially in areas with an elevated primary production such as upwelling regions. Examination of literature data reveals that as much as 20 to 35% of the total lipid flux in the Arabian Sea is derived from Proboscia diatoms during the start of the upwelling season. Their rapid transfer to the water-sediment interface may explain why corresponding 1,14-keto-ols, inferred oxidation products of diols, are hardly formed. These interpretations are supported by compound-specific carbon isotopic analysis of long-chain keto-ols and diols in surface sediments of the Arabian Sea. The data indicate that long-chain alkyl 1,14-diols and 12-hydroxy methyl alkanoates can be applied as indicators for high-nutrient conditions in the photic zone.     

Assessment of the atmospheric nitrogen and sulphur inputs into the North Sea using a Lagrangian model

The atmospheric chemistry and deposition model has been applied for calculation of nitrogen and sulphur depositions to the entire North Sea area for the year 1999. The total atmospheric nitrogen and sulphur depositions to the North Sea area were determined to 709 kton (kt) N and 551 kt S, respectively. Since the North Sea area was calculated to be 747,988 km², this is equivalent to an average deposition of 0.9 ton N km^?2 and 0.7 ton S km^?2, respectively. The depositions decrease strongly from the south end (about 2–3 kt N km^?2) to the north end (about 0.2 kt N km^?2) of the North Sea, due to increasing distance to the large source areas in the northern part of the European continent. The territorial waters of Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany receive about 50% higher deposition densities than the average value for the entire North Sea area. For the remaining territorial waters of the North Sea the depositions follow more or less the fraction of the area. The results furthermore show that about 60% of the total nitrogen deposition is related to emissions from combustion sources (nitrogen oxides) and about 40% from emissions related to agricultural activities (ammonia).