Lattice strain across Na–K interdiffusion fronts in alkali feldspar: an electron back-scatter diffraction study

Cation exchange experiments between gem quality sanidine \((X_\mathrm{Or} = 0.85)\) and KCl melt produced chemical alteration of alkali feldspar starting at the grain surface and propagating inwards by highly anisotropic Na–K interdiffusion on the alkali sublattice. Diffusion fronts developing in b-direction are very sharp, while diffusion fronts within the a–c-plane are comparatively broad. Due to the composition dependence of the lattice parameters of alkali feldspar, the diffusion induced compositional heterogeneity induces coherency stress and elastic strain. Electron back-scatter diffraction combined with the cross-correlation technique was employed to determine the lattice strain distribution across the Na–K interdiffusion fronts in partially exchanged single crystals of alkali feldspar. The strain changes gradually across the broad fronts within the a–c-plane, with a successive extension primarily in a-direction conferring to the composition strain in unstressed alkali feldspar. In contrast, lattice strain characterised by pronounced extension in b-direction is localised at the sharp diffusion fronts parallel to b, followed by a slight expansion in a-direction in the orthoclase-rich rim. This strain pattern does not confer with the composition induced lattice strain in a stress-free alkali feldspar. It may rather be explained by the mechanical coupling of the exchanged surface layer and the mechanically strong substratum. The lattice distortion localised at the sharp diffusion front may have an influence on the diffusion process and appears to produce a self-sharpening feedback, leading to a local reduction of component mobilities.     

Large and small numbers: options for quantifying the costs of extremes on transport now and in 40 years

The past 15 years has been characterized by a high density of record-breaking weather extremes in Europe. These include the extratropical cyclones Lothar, Kyrill and Xynthia across western and mid Europe; the major floods in the UK, Germany and eastern Europe; the heat waves in 2003 and 2007 and, after a long period of mild winters, the heavy winter seasons in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Inspired by the rising trends in weather-related damages worldwide and the studies on the topic carried out in overseas, the EC funded the sister projects such as Weather Extremes-Assessing the Impacts on Transport and Hazards for European Regions (WEATHER), EWENT and ECCONET to determine the magnitude of current and future risks to the European transport sector and to assess suitable adaptation strategies. This paper presents the assessment framework of the WEATHER project and the results of weather-inflicted damage costs now and in 2040–2050. Total annual damages are found to be around €2.5 billion, which largely attribute to road traffic. However, broken down to passenger and ton kilometers the highest risk is borne by rail traffic due to its expensive infrastructures and its comparably complex operating structure. This indication even amplifies when looking four decades ahead: while average road transport costs will only raise by 7 % due to milder winters, rail traffic costs may increase by up to 80 % due to more floods and less predictable winter periods. A comparison with the results of the EWENT study uncovers a high range of uncertainty concerning methodological approaches and data treatment. Thus, the final figures might even be much higher.     

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.     

An integrative hierarchical monitoring approach applied at a natural analogue site to monitor CO2 degassing areas

This paper introduces an integrative hierarchical monitoring concept allowing for the detection and assessment of possible leakages from geological storage formations into the shallow subsurface or atmosphere. The concept introduced in this paper combines various investigation methods working at different scales and with varying resolutions. This approach will allow large spatial areas to be consistently covered, to enable efficient monitoring. Experience gained from the adoption of these tools for naturally occurring CO₂ deposits (analogue sites) is helpful for the evaluation and adoption of the methods to the requirements of storage projects.     

Reduced order models for many-query subsurface flow applications

Inverse modeling involves repeated evaluations of forward models, which can be computationally prohibitive for large numerical models. To reduce the overall computational burden of these simulations, we study the use of reduced order models (ROMs) as numerical surrogates. These ROMs usually involve using solutions to high-fidelity models at different sample points within the parameter space to construct an approximate solution at any point within the parameter space. This paper examines an input–output relational approach based on Gaussian process regression (GPR). We show that these ROMs are more accurate than the linear lookup tables with the same number of high-fidelity simulations. We describe an adaptive sampling procedure that automatically selects optimal sample points and demonstrate the use of GPR to a smooth response surface and a response surface with abrupt changes. We also describe how GPR can be used to construct ROMs for models with heterogeneous material properties. Finally, we demonstrate how the use of a GPR-based ROM in two many-query applications—uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis—significantly reduces the total computational effort.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112000424

Subcooled liquid solubility is the water solubility for a hypothetical state of liquid.It is an important parameter for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids(NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs),which can exist as liquids even though most of the solutes are solid in their pure form at ambient temperature.So far,subcooled liquid solubilities were estimated from the solid water solubility and fugacity ratio of the solid and(subcooled) liquid phase,but rarely derived from experimental data.In our study,partitioning batch experiments were performed to determine the subcooled liquid solubility of PAHs in NAPL-water system.For selected PAH,a series of batch experiments were carried out at increased mole fractions of the target component in the NAPL and at a constant NAPL/ water volume ratio.The equilibrium aqueous PAH concentrations were measured with HPLC and/or GCMS. The subcooled liquid solubility was derived by extrapolation of the experimental equilibrium aqueous concentration to a mole fraction of unity.With the derived subcooled liquid solubility,the fugacity ratio and enthalpy of fusion of the solute were also estimated.Our results show a good agreement between the experimentally determined and published data.     

Effect of particle friction and polydispersity on the macroscopic stress–strain relations of granular materials

The macroscopic mechanical behavior of granular materials inherently depends on the properties of particles that compose them. Using the discrete element method, the effect of particle contact friction and polydispersity on the macroscopic stress response of 3D sphere packings is studied. The analytical expressions for the pressure, coordination number and fraction of rattlers proposed for isotropically deformed frictionless systems also hold when the interparticle coefficient of friction is finite; however, the numerical values of the parameters such as the jamming volume fraction change with varying microscopic contact and particle properties. The macroscopic response under deviatoric loading is studied with triaxial test simulations. Concerning the shear strength, our results agree with previous studies showing that the deviatoric stress ratio increases with particle coefficient of friction μ starting from a nonzero value for μ = 0 and saturating for large μ. On the other hand, the volumetric strain does not have a monotonic dependence on the particle contact friction. Most notably, maximum compaction is reached at an intermediate value of the coefficient of friction μ ≈ 0.3. The effect of polydispersity on the macroscopic stress–strain relationship cannot be studied independent of initial packing conditions. The shear strength increases with polydispersity when the initial volume fraction is fixed, but the effect of polydispersity is much less pronounced when the initial pressure of the packings is fixed. Finally, a simple hypoplastic constitutive model is calibrated with numerical test results following an established procedure to ascertain the relation between particle properties and material coefficients of the macroscopic model. The calibrated model is in good qualitative agreement with simulation results.     

An experimental study of the Fe oxidation states in garnet and clinopyroxene as a function of temperature in the system CaO–FeO–Fe2O3–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2: implications for garnet–clinopyroxene geothermometry

Samples with eclogitic composition in the system CaO–FeO–Fe₂O₃–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ were produced from various kinds of starting materials held in graphite-lined Pt capsules at a pressure of 2.5–3.0 GPa and temperatures of 800–1,300 °C using a piston-cylinder or Belt apparatus. Garnets and clinopyroxenes were characterized by analytical transmission electron microscopy and electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA). Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios determined by electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) decrease in clinopyroxene from 22.2 ± 3.4 % at 800 °C to 13.3 ± 5.4 % at 1,300 °C, while in garnet, they vary between 10.8 ± 1.5 and 15.4 ± 4.7 %, respectively. Temperature estimates according to Krogh (Contrib Mineral Petrol 99:44–48, 1988) reproduce the experimental temperature to ±60 °C without systematic deviations if total iron is used in the calculation. If only the Fe²⁺ content is used, which was obtained by combining EPMA and EELS results, the experimental temperature is underestimated by 33 °C on average at 800–1,200 °C and overestimated by 77 °C on average at 1,300 °C. These systematic deviations can be explained by the temperature-dependent ratio of Fe²⁺/ΣFe in garnet divided by that in clinopyroxene. Since the difference between the calculated and experimental temperature is relatively small, a Fe²⁺-based recalibration of the thermometer appears not to be necessary for the investigated system in the range of pressure, temperature and composition covered by the experiments of this study.     

Mesan, an operational mesoscale analysis system

A system for mesoscale analyses of selected variables has been developed. The analysed parameters are of general interest in operational weather forecasting, but normally not available from NWP systems, or available, but with a significantly lower quality than achieved by the mesoscale analysis system. A supplementary objective is to produce initial information to be used for now-casting techniques. Examples of parameters are precipitation, temperature, humidity, visibility, wind and clouds. The basis of the analysis system is the optimal interpolation technique (OI). The use of observations from automatic stations, radars and satellites have been investigated. The investigation indicates that a dense network of ordinary precipitation gauge measurements can produce more accurate analyses than more elaborate systems like radar that suffers from anomalous echoes and other errors.