Data-enriched interpolation for temporally consistent population compositions

This research evaluates the performance of areal interpolation coupled with dasymetric refinement to estimate different demographic attributes, namely population sub-groups based on race, age structure and urban residence, within consistent census tract boundaries from 1990 to 2010 in Massachusetts. The creation of such consistent estimates facilitates the study of the nuanced micro-scale evolution of different aspects of population, which is impossible using temporally incompatible small-area census geographies from different points in time. Various unexplored ancillary variables, including the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), the National Land-Cover Database (NLCD), parcels, building footprints and the proprietary ZTRAX® dataset are utilized for dasymetric refinement prior to areal interpolation to examine their effectiveness in improving the accuracy of multi-temporal population estimates. Different areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW), Target Density Weighting (TDW), Expectation Maximization (EM) and its data-extended approach are coupled with different dasymetric refinement scenarios based on these ancillary variables. The resulting consistent small area estimates of white and black subpopulations, people of age 18–65 and urban population show that dasymetrically refined areal interpolation is particularly effective when the analysis spans a longer time period (1990–2010 instead of 2000–2010) and the enumerated population is sufficiently large (e.g., counts of white vs. black). The results also demonstrate that current census-defined urban areas overestimate the spatial distribution of urban population and dasymetrically refined areal interpolation improves estimates of urban population. Refined TDW using building footprints or the ZTRAX® dataset outperforms all other methods. The implementation of areal interpolation enriched by dasymetric refinement represents a promising strategy to create more reliable multi-temporal and consistent estimates of different population subgroups and thus demographic compositions. This methodological foundation has the potential to advance micro-scale modeling of various subpopulations, particularly urban population to inform studies of urbanization and population change over time as well as future population projections.     

Energy and pseudomomentum of propagating disturbances on the beta-plane

The far-field amplitude of the waves generated by a steadily propagating radially symmetric disturbance on the beta-plane is calculated using Lighthill's method. From this can be obtained the fluxes of quantities such as wave energy which are radiated away from the disturbance. The radiated wave power is computed for a variety of forms of the disturbance. The rate of change of pseudomomentum in the system is also calculated: the component parallel to the motion of the disturbance is the radiated wave power divided by velocity. Results are compared to previous work and some physical issues are discussed.     

A freshwater species wintering in a brackish environment: Habitat selection and diet of Slavonian grebes in the southern Baltic Sea

After the breeding season, Slavonian grebes (Podiceps auritus) leave their freshwater breeding habitats and migrate to wintering grounds in marine or brackish waters. The most important wintering area in northwestern Europe is located in the southern Baltic Sea, with the largest concentrations in the offshore area of the Pommeranian Bight. Analysis of ship-based surveys revealed that the habitat selection of Slavonian grebes in this brackish area is significantly influenced by water depth and bottom sediment type. The grebes prefer shallow waters of 4–14 m depth and occur only over sandy sediments. While the diving depths of endothermic animals is limited due to energetic constraints and thermoregulation, sediment type is regarded to be a proxy for food choice. The diet of Slavonian grebes in the Pomeranian Bight consists mainly of demersal gobies (Gobiidae) that frequently occur over sandy bottom substrates.     

Benthic trophic status and nutrient fluxes in shallow-water sediments

Proliferation of fast-growing ephemeral macroalgae in shallow-water embayments constitutes a large-scale environmental change of coastal marine ecosystems. Since inorganic nutrients essential for the initiation and maintenance of macroalgal growth may be supplied from the underlying sediment, we investigated the coupling between benthic inorganic nutrient (mainly N and P) fluxes and sediment properties in 6 bays representing a wide gradient of sediment characteristics (grain size, organic matter content, solid phase C and N). The initial characterization of bays was made in June and also included measurements of oxygen flux and microphytobenthic and macrofaunal biomass. In September, still within the growth season of the macroalgae, complementary experiments with sediment-water incubations for benthic flux measurements of oxygen and nutrients focused on trophic status (balance between auto- and heterotrophy) as a controlling factor for rates of measured benthic nutrient fluxes. Generally, sediments rendered autotrophic by microphytobenthic photosynthesis removed nutrients from the overlying water, while heterotrophic sediments supplied nutrients to the overlying bottom water. Estimations of the green-algal nutrient demand suggested that late in the growth season, net heterotrophic sediments could cover 20% of the N-demand and 70% of the P demand. As the benthic trophic status is a functional variable more closely coupled to nutrient fluxes than the comparably conservative structural parameter organic matter content, we suggest that the trophic status is a more viable parameter to classify sediments and predict benthic nutrient fluxes in shallow-water environments.     

Flood/drought change of last millennium in the Yangtze Delta and its possible connections with Tibetan climatic changes

Flood/drought series during the past 1000 yrs in the Yangtze Delta, China, was reconstructed based on historical documents and local chronologies. Continuous wavelet transform was applied to detect the periodicity and variability of the flood/drought series. Research results indicate that: (1) Larger fluctuations of climatic changes in the Tibetan Plateau result in higher wavelet variance of flood/drought in the Yangtze Delta, for example, during 1400–1700, the proxy indicators indicate that the annual temperature in Tibet experienced larger variability and that this time interval exactly corresponds to the time when the higher and significant wavelet variance occurred; (2) Periods featured by colder temperature in the Tibetan Plateau usually correspond to periods characterized by higher wetness with higher probability of flood events; (3) Variability of heating features of the Tibetan Plateau exerted great influences on intensity and onset of Indian monsoon and south Asian summer monsoon, and these atmospheric activities are in direct connection with precipitation in Eastern China. Current global warming may alter the snow mass of Tibetan Plateau and then alters the heating features of Tibetan Plateau, which may in turn impact flood/drought conditions in the Yangtze Delta.     

Electron Transfer Between Sulfide and Humic Acid: Electrochemical Evaluation of the Reactivity of Sigma-Aldrich Humic Acid Toward Sulfide

Little is known of potential reactivity and redox properties of reduced dissolved organic matter (DOM), although DOM in anoxic environments, e.g., groundwater, peat soils, or lake sediments, can be expected to differ from DOM of oxidized environments. We therefore investigated the impact of electrochemical and wet chemical [hydrogen (H₂)/Pd catalyst] reduction in Sigma-Aldrich humic acid (HA) as a model DOM for high salinity, high ionic strength, or iron-rich systems on its reactivity toward sulfide. Mediated electrochemical measurement showed that the reactivity of HA toward sulfide decreased in the order non-reduced HA > electrochemically reduced (?0.1 V) HA > H₂/Pd-reduced HA > electrochemically reduced (?0.4 V) HA. Results indicated that measured initial values of electron-accepting capacities of HA had a strongly positive correlation with the sulfide transformation, except for the H₂/Pd treatment of HA. This latter treatment obviously changed HA structures and lead to a different reactivity toward sulfide, limiting a direct comparison to electrochemically reduced organic matter. Our result confirmed that reduced HA was still reactive toward sulfide, although to a lower extent compared with oxidized HA. Compared to electrochemical reduction, H₂/Pd pre-treatment of HA alters redox properties and reactivity of organic matter and may therefore lead to results that cannot be transferred to natural systems.     

Biomineralization of lepidocrocite and goethite by nitrate-reducing Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria: Effect of pH, bicarbonate, phosphate, and humic acids

Fe(III) solid phases are the products of Fe(II) oxidation by Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria, but the Fe(III) phases reported to form within growth experiments are, at times, poorly crystalline and therefore difficult to identify, possibly due to the presence of ligands (e.g., phosphate, carbonate) that complex iron and disrupt iron (hydr)oxide precipitation. The scope of this study was to investigate the influences of geochemical solution conditions (pH, carbonate, phosphate, humic acids) on the Fe(II) oxidation rate and Fe(III) mineralogy. Fe(III) mineral characterization was performed using ⁵⁷Fe-Mössbauer spectroscopy and μ-X-ray diffraction after oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) within Mops-buffered cell suspensions of Acidovorax sp. BoFeN1, a nitrate-reducing, Fe(II)-oxidizing bacterium. Lepidocrocite (γ-FeOOH) (90%), which also forms after chemical oxidation of Fe(II) by dissolved O₂, and goethite (α-FeOOH) (10%) were produced at pH 7.0 in the absence of any strongly complexing ligands. Higher solution pH, increasing concentrations of carbonate species, and increasing concentrations of humic acids promoted goethite formation and caused little or no changes in Fe(II) oxidation rates. Phosphate species resulted in Fe(III) solids unidentifiable to our methods and significantly slowed Fe(II) oxidation rates. Our results suggest that Fe(III) mineralogy formed by bacterial Fe(II) oxidation is strongly influenced by solution chemistry, and the geochemical conditions studied here suggest lepidocrocite and goethite may coexist in aquatic environments where nitrate-reducing, Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria are active.     

The effect of tidal asymmetry and temporal settling lag on sediment trapping in tidal estuaries

Over decades and centuries, the mean depth of estuaries changes due to sea-level rise, land subsidence, infilling, and dredging projects. These processes produce changes in relative roughness (friction) and mixing, resulting in fundamental changes in the characteristics of the horizontal (velocity) and vertical tides (sea surface elevation) and the dynamics of sediment trapping. To investigate such changes, a 2DV model is developed. The model equations consist of the width-averaged shallow water equations and a sediment balance equation. Together with the condition of morphodynamic equilibrium, these equations are solved analytically by making a regular expansion of the various physical variables in a small parameter. Using these analytic solutions, we are able to gain insight into the fundamental physical processes resulting in sediment trapping in an estuary by studying various forcings separately. As a case study, we consider the Ems estuary. Between 1980 and 2005, successive deepening of the Ems estuary has significantly altered the tidal and sediment dynamics. The tidal range and the surface sediment concentration has increased and the position of the turbidity zone has shifted into the freshwater zone. The model is used to determine the causes of these historical changes. It is found that the increase of the tidal amplitude toward the end of the embayment is the combined effect of the deepening of the estuary and a 37% and 50% reduction in the vertical eddy viscosity and stress parameter, respectively. The physical mechanism resulting in the trapping of sediment, the number of trapping regions, and their sensitivity to grain size are explained by careful analysis of the various contributions of the residual sediment transport. It is found that sediment is trapped in the estuary by a delicate balance between the M ₂ transport and the residual transport for fine sediment ( $\emph{w}_s=0.2$  mm s^???1) and the residual, M ₂ and M ₄ transports for coarser sediment ( $\emph{w}_s=2$  mm s^???1). The upstream movement of the estuarine turbidity maximum into the freshwater zone in 2005 is mainly the result of changes in tidal asymmetry. Moreover, the difference between the sediment distribution for different grain sizes in the same year can be attributed to changes in the temporal settling lag.     

Downscaling daily precipitation over the Yellow River source region in China: a comparison of three statistical downscaling methods

Three statistical downscaling methods are compared with regard to their ability to downscale summer (June–September) daily precipitation at a network of 14 stations over the Yellow River source region from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with the aim of constructing high-resolution regional precipitation scenarios for impact studies. The methods used are the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), the Generalized LInear Model for daily CLIMate (GLIMCLIM), and the non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM). The methods are compared in terms of several statistics including spatial dependence, wet- and dry spell length distributions and inter-annual variability. In comparison with other two models, NHMM shows better performance in reproducing the spatial correlation structure, inter-annual variability and magnitude of the observed precipitation. However, it shows difficulty in reproducing observed wet- and dry spell length distributions at some stations. SDSM and GLIMCLIM showed better performance in reproducing the temporal dependence than NHMM. These models are also applied to derive future scenarios for six precipitation indices for the period 2046–2065 using the predictors from two global climate models (GCMs; CGCM3 and ECHAM5) under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1scenarios. There is a strong consensus among two GCMs, three downscaling methods and three emission scenarios in the precipitation change signal. Under the future climate scenarios considered, all parts of the study region would experience increases in rainfall totals and extremes that are statistically significant at most stations. The magnitude of the projected changes is more intense for the SDSM than for other two models, which indicates that climate projection based on results from only one downscaling method should be interpreted with caution. The increase in the magnitude of rainfall totals and extremes is also accompanied by an increase in their inter-annual variability.     

Tropical versus high latitude freshwater influence on the Atlantic circulation

We investigate the model sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to anomalous freshwater flux in the tropical and northern Atlantic. Forcing in both locations leads to the same qualitative response: a positive freshwater anomaly induces a weakening of the AMOC and a negative freshwater anomaly strengthens the AMOC. Strong differences arise in the temporal characteristics and amplitude of the response. The advection of the tropical anomaly up to the deep water formation area leads to a time delayed response compared to a northern forcing. Thus, in its transient response, the AMOC is less sensitive to a constant anomalous freshwater flux in the tropics than in the north. This difference decreases with time and practically vanishes in equilibrium with constant freshwater forcing. The equilibrium response of the AMOC shows a non-linear dependence on freshwater forcing in both locations, with a stronger sensitivity to positive freshwater forcing. As a consequence, competitive forcing in both regions is balanced when the negative forcing is about 1.5 times larger than the positive forcing. The relaxation time of the AMOC after termination of a freshwater perturbation depends significantly on the AMOC strength itself. A strong overturning exhibits a faster relaxation to its unperturbed state. By means of a set of complementary experiments (pulse-perturbations, constant and stochastic forcing) we quantify these effects and discuss the corresponding time scales and physical processes.