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551.
Carlo?CauzziEmail author Yannik?Behr Thomas?Le?Guenan John?Douglas Samuel?Auclair Jochen?Woessner John?Clinton Stefan?Wiemer 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2495-2512
Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT. 相似文献
552.
A new MODFLOW package (Nonlinear Flow Process; NLFP) simulating nonlinear flow following the Forchheimer equation was developed and implemented in MODLFOW‐2005. The method is based on an iterative modification of the conductance calculated and used by MODFLOW to obtain an effective Forchheimer conductance. The package is compatible with the different layer types, boundary conditions, and solvers as well as the wetting capability of MODFLOW. The correct implementation is demonstrated using four different benchmark scenarios for which analytical solutions are available. A scenario considering transient flow in a more realistic setting and a larger model domain with a higher number of cells demonstrates that NLFP performs well under more complex conditions, although it converges moderately slower than the standard MODFLOW depending on the nonlinearity of flow. Thus, this new tool opens a field of opportunities to groundwater flow simulation with MODFLOW, especially for core sample simulation or vuggy karstified aquifers as well as for nonlinear flow in the vicinity of pumping wells. 相似文献
553.
Ultraviolet (UV) data are powerful tools to understand supernovae (SNe). Currently, the Swift satellite is the best suited telescope available for SN UV studies, due to its photometric and spectroscopic capabilities and its fast response. We present recent results obtained with the Swift SN program, demonstrating the importance of the UV emission, which provides fundamental information about SN explosion mechanism, its environment and progenitor structure. 相似文献
554.
Stefan Fronzek Timothy R. Carter Jouni Räisänen Leena Ruokolainen Miska Luoto 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):515-534
A comparison of two approaches for determining probabilistic climate change impacts is presented. In the first approach, ensemble climate projections are applied directly as inputs to an impact model and the risk of impact is computed from the resulting ensemble of outcomes. As this can involve large numbers of projections, the approach may prove to be impractical when applied to complex impact models with demanding input requirements. The second approach is to construct an impact response surface based on a sensitivity analysis of the impact model with respect to changes in key climatic variables, and then to superimpose probabilistic projections of future climate onto the response surface to assess the risk of impact. To illustrate this comparison, an impact model describing the spatial distribution of palsas in Fennoscandia was applied to estimate the risk of palsa disappearance. Palsas are northern mire complexes with permanently frozen peat hummocks, located at the outer limit of the permafrost zone and susceptible to rapid decline due to regional warming. Probabilities of climate changes were derived from an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections using a re-sampling method. Results indicated that the response surface approach, though introducing additional uncertainty, gave risk estimates of area decline for palsa suitability that were comparable to those obtained using multiple simulations with the original palsa model. It was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that a decline of area suitable for palsas to less than half of the baseline distribution will occur by the 2030s and likely (>66%) that all suitable areas will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century under scenarios of medium (A1B) and moderately high (A2) emissions. For a low emissions (B1) scenario, it was more likely than not (>50%) that conditions over a small fraction of the current palsa distribution would remain suitable until the end of the twenty-first century. 相似文献
555.
Stefan Becker M. L. Büker C. J. Matyas R. V. Rohli 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,102(3-4):379-392
Links between hurricane track changes and upper atmospheric potential vorticity (PV) anomaly patterns were identified qualitatively and analytically between 1990 and 2005 in the Western Atlantic. Strong track changes of hurricanes, particularly the constellations that triggered northward acceleration of the storm systems, were associated with upper-air PV patterns characterized by strongly positive anomalies to the northeast in combination with weak PV to the north of the system center. Constellations that triggered eventual eastward acceleration were associated with strongly positive PV anomalies to the northwest in combination with weak PV to the northeast of the system center. These results may assist hurricane forecasters and modelers in identifying possible signatures of future tropical cyclone tracks. 相似文献
556.
This study presents the first 19th century cold season climate chronology for the Kingdom of Lesotho in southern Africa. The
chronology is constructed using a variety of documentary sources including letters, diaries, reports, monographs and newspaper
articles obtained from southern African and British archives. Information relating to cold season weather phenomena during
the austral autumn, winter and early spring months were recorded verbatim. Each of the cold seasons from 1833 to 1900 was
then classified as “very severe”, “severe” or “normal/mild”, with a confidence rating ranging from low (1) to high (3) awarded
against each annual classification. The accuracy of the document-derived chronology was verified against temperature data
for Maseru for the period 1893–1900. Excellent correspondence of the document-derived chronology with the Maseru instrumental
data and also with other global proxy temperature records for the 19th century is achieved. The results indicate 12 (18% of
the total) very severe, 16 (23%) severe and 40 (59%) normal/mild cold seasons between 1833 and 1900. The overall trend is
for more severe and snow-rich cold seasons during the early part of the study period (1833–1854) compared with the latter
half of the 19th century (with the exception of the 1880s). A reduction in the duration of the frost season by over 20 days
during the 19th century is also tentatively identified. Several severe to very severe cold seasons in Lesotho follow after
major tropical and SH volcanic eruptions; such years are usually characterized by early frosts, and frequent and heavy snowfalls.
The blocking of solar radiation and the enhanced northward displacement of polar fronts that are directly or indirectly associated
with volcanic events, may account for many of the most severe Lesotho winters during the 19th century. 相似文献
557.
Comparison of Phytoscreening and Direct‐Push‐Based Site Investigation at a Rural Megasite Contaminated with Chlorinated Ethenes 下载免费PDF全文
Arno Rein Olaf Holm Stefan Trapp Steffen Popp‐Hofmann Martin Bittens Carsten Leven Peter Dietrich 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2015,35(4):45-56
The reliable characterization of subsurface contamination of spatially extended contaminated sites is a challenging task, especially with an unknown history of land use. Conventional technologies often fail due to temporal and financial constraints and thus hinder the redevelopment of abandoned areas in particular. Here we compare two site screening techniques that can be applied quickly at relatively low cost, namely Direct Push (DP)‐based groundwater sampling and tree core sampling. The effectiveness of both methods is compared for a rural megasite contaminated with chlorinated hydrocarbons. Unexpected pollution hot spots could be identified using both of these methods, while tree coring even enabled the delineation of the contaminant plume flowing into an adjacent wetland inaccessible for DP units. Both methods showed a good agreement in revealing the spatial pattern of the contamination. The correlation between groundwater concentrations and equivalent concentrations in wood was linear and highly significant for trichloroethene. Correlation was less obvious for its metabolite cis‐dichloroethene, but still significant. As outcome of our study we recommend tree coring and for initial screening in combination with a DP sampling to retrieve quantitative data on groundwater pollutants in order to assess the contamination situation of a non‐ or only partly investigated site. The subsequent placement of monitoring wells for long‐term monitoring of contamination levels is recommended. A combination of methods would achieve more relevant information at comparable or possibly even lower efforts in comparison to a conventional site investigation. 相似文献
558.
Tree Coring as a Complement to Soil Gas Screening to Locate PCE and TCE Source Zones and Hot Spots 下载免费PDF全文
Mette Algreen Stefan Trapp Pernille Rehné Jensen Mette Martina Broholm 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2015,35(4):57-66
Preliminary risk assessment for prioritisation of site investigations requires efficient screening to reveal type and level of contamination. The screening methods, tree coring and soil gas sampling were applied and compared at two forested sites contaminated with tetrachloroethylene (PCE) or trichloroethylene (TCE) to evaluate their ability to locate source zones and contaminant hot spots. One test site represented a relatively homogeneous sandy soil and aquifer, and the second a more heterogeneous geology with both sandy and less permeable clay till layers overlying a chalk aquifer. Tree cores from different tree species were sampled and analysed, and compared to soil gas measurements and existing soil gas data. Both methods were found useful as screening tools to locate hot spots of PCE and TCE in the shallow subsurface. Tree coring was found to be particularly beneficial as a complement to soil gas sampling at sites with low permeable soils, and where contamination was located in the capillary rise or shallow groundwater. The shorter time required for tree coring reduced the costs compared to soil gas sampling, but the sensitivity and precision of tree coring were lower. However, this did not affect the feasibility of using tree coring to locate the hot spots. Moreover, a combination of the two methods can help to focus any subsequent investigations like soil or groundwater sampling. The use of tree coring to complement soil gas sampling for pre‐screening is expected to result in higher certainty for revealing hot spots and source zones at contaminated sites. 相似文献
559.
Sonja Schuh Roberto Silvotti Ronny Lutz Björn Loeptien Elizabeth M. Green Roy H. Østensen Silvio Leccia Seung-Lee Kim Gilles Fontaine Stéphane Charpinet Myriam Francœur Suzanna Randall Cristina Rodríguez-López Valerie van Grootel Andrew P. Odell Margit Paparó Zsófia Bognár Péter Pápics Thorsten Nagel Benjamin Beeck Markus Hundertmark Thorsten Stahn Stefan Dreizler Frederic V. Hessman Massimo Dall’Ora Dario Mancini Fausto Cortecchia Serena Benatti Riccardo Claudi Rimvydas Janulis 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2010,329(1-2):231-242
In 2007, a companion with planetary mass was found around the pulsating subdwarf B star V391 Pegasi with the timing method, indicating that a previously undiscovered population of substellar companions to apparently single subdwarf B stars might exist. Following this serendipitous discovery, the EXOTIME (http://www.na.astro.it/~silvotti/exotime/) monitoring program has been set up to follow the pulsations of a number of selected rapidly pulsating subdwarf B stars on time scales of several years with two immediate observational goals:
- determine $\dot{P}$ of the pulsational periods P
- search for signatures of substellar companions in O–C residuals due to periodic light travel time variations, which would be tracking the central star’s companion-induced wobble around the centre of mass
560.
A multi-technique approach for characterizing the SVN49 signal anomaly, part 2: chip shape analysis 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Steffen Thoelert Michael Meurer Stefan Erker Oliver Montenbruck André Hauschild Pat Fenton 《GPS Solutions》2012,16(1):29-39
Due to a satellite internal reflection at the L5 test payload, the SVN49 (PRN1) GPS satellite exhibits a static multipath
on the L1 and L2 signals, which results in elevation-dependent tracking errors for terrestrial receivers. Using a 30-m high-gain
antenna, code and carrier phase measurements as well as raw in-phase and quadrature radio frequency samples have been collected
during a series of zenith passes in mid-April 2010 to characterize the SVN49 multipath and its impact on common users. Following
an analysis of the receiver tracking data and the IQ constellation provided in Part 1 of this study, the present Part 2 provides
an in-depth investigation into chip shapes for the L1 and L2 signals. A single reflection model is found to be compatible
with the observed chip shape distortions and key parameters for an elevation dependent multipath model are derived. A good
agreement is found between multipath parameters derived independently from raw IQ-samples and measurements of a so-called
Vision Correlator. The chip shapes and their observed variation with elevation can be used to predict the multipath response
of different correlator types within a tracking receiver. The multipath model itself is suitable for implementation in a signal
simulator and thus enables laboratory testing of actual receiver hardware. 相似文献