Deterministic earthquake damage and loss assessment for the city of Bucharest, Romania

On March 4, 1977, an earthquake with a moment magnitude M _w 7.4 at a hypocentral depth of 94 km hit the Vrancea region (Romania). In Bucharest alone, the earthquake caused severe damage to 33,000 buildings while 1,424 people were killed. Under the umbrella of the SAFER project, the city of Bucharest, being one of the larger European cities at risk, was chosen as a test bed for the estimation of damage and connected losses in case of a future large magnitude earthquake in the Vrancea area. For the conduct of these purely deterministic damage and loss computations, the open-source software SELENA is applied. In order to represent a large event in the Vrancea region, a set of deterministic scenarios were defined by combining ranges of focal parameters, i.e., magnitude, focal depth, and epicentral location. Ground motion values are computed by consideration of different ground motion prediction equations that are believed to represent earthquake attenuation effects in the region. Variations in damage and loss estimates are investigated through considering different sets of building vulnerability curves (provided by HAZUS-MH and various European authors) to characterize the damaging behavior of prevalent building typologies in the city of Bucharest.     

Uniformly rotating homogeneous and polytropic rings in Newtonian gravity

An analytical method is presented for treating the problem of a uniformly rotating, self-gravitating ring without a central body in Newtonian gravity. The method is based on an expansion about the thin ring limit, where the cross-section of the ring tends to a circle. The iterative scheme developed here is applied to homogeneous rings up to the 20th order and to polytropes with the index   n = 1  up to the third order. For other polytropic indices no analytic solutions are obtainable, but one can apply the method numerically. However, it is possible to derive a simple formula relating mass to the integrated pressure to leading order without specifying the equation of state. Our results are compared with those generated by highly accurate numerical methods to test their accuracy.     

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.     

Numerical analysis of synthetic granulate deposition in a physical model study

The current study focuses on the application of a three-dimensional numerical model for the prediction of morphological bed changes. The sediment deposition in a reservoir during a 10-year-flood was investigated and the results of the simulation were validated with data derived from a physical model study. Because of the small grain sizes in the prototype, synthetic granulate was used in the physical model. The numerical computation domain was a reproduction of the physical model, including the grain sizes and the density of the particles, in order to ensure comparability. The CFD code SSIIM, which solves the RANS-equations in three-dimensions, was used for the simulations. The sediment transport in SSIIM is divided into suspended sediment transport, computed by solving the convection-diffusion equation, and bed-load transport, calculated by an empirical formula. The results of the numerical simulation correspond well to the results of the physical model study. The simulated location and the pattern of the sediment deposition in the reservoir are an accurate representation of the observed distribution in the physical model.     

Nonlinear Flow Process: A New Package to Compute Nonlinear Flow in MODFLOW

A new MODFLOW package (Nonlinear Flow Process; NLFP) simulating nonlinear flow following the Forchheimer equation was developed and implemented in MODLFOW‐2005. The method is based on an iterative modification of the conductance calculated and used by MODFLOW to obtain an effective Forchheimer conductance. The package is compatible with the different layer types, boundary conditions, and solvers as well as the wetting capability of MODFLOW. The correct implementation is demonstrated using four different benchmark scenarios for which analytical solutions are available. A scenario considering transient flow in a more realistic setting and a larger model domain with a higher number of cells demonstrates that NLFP performs well under more complex conditions, although it converges moderately slower than the standard MODFLOW depending on the nonlinearity of flow. Thus, this new tool opens a field of opportunities to groundwater flow simulation with MODFLOW, especially for core sample simulation or vuggy karstified aquifers as well as for nonlinear flow in the vicinity of pumping wells.     

Comparison of electronic and mechanical Schmidt hammers in the context of exposure‐age dating: are Q‐ and R‐values interconvertible?

Application of Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) to landforms has substantially increased in recent years. The original mechanical Schmidt hammer records R‐(rebound) values. Although the newly introduced electronic Schmidt hammer (SilverSchmidt) facilitates greatly improved data processing, it measures surface hardness differently, recording Q‐(velocity) values that are not a priori interconvertible with R‐values. This study is the first to compare the performance of both instruments in the context of field‐based exposure‐age dating with a particular focus on the interconvertibility of R‐values and Q‐values. The study was conducted on glacially polished pyroxene‐granulite gneiss, Jotunheimen, southern Norway. Results indicate that mean Q‐values are consistently 8–10 units higher than mean R‐values over the range of values normally encountered in the application of SHD to glacial and periglacial landforms. A convenient conversion factor of ±10 units may, therefore, be appropriate for all but the softest rock types close to the technical resolution of the instruments. The electronic Schmidt hammer should therefore be regarded as a useful complement and potential replacement for the mechanical Schmidt hammer. Conversion of published R‐values data to Q‐values requires, however, careful control and documentation of instrument calibration. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ultraviolet SN observations with Swift

Ultraviolet (UV) data are powerful tools to understand supernovae (SNe). Currently, the Swift satellite is the best suited telescope available for SN UV studies, due to its photometric and spectroscopic capabilities and its fast response. We present recent results obtained with the Swift SN program, demonstrating the importance of the UV emission, which provides fundamental information about SN explosion mechanism, its environment and progenitor structure.     

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: a case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia

A comparison of two approaches for determining probabilistic climate change impacts is presented. In the first approach, ensemble climate projections are applied directly as inputs to an impact model and the risk of impact is computed from the resulting ensemble of outcomes. As this can involve large numbers of projections, the approach may prove to be impractical when applied to complex impact models with demanding input requirements. The second approach is to construct an impact response surface based on a sensitivity analysis of the impact model with respect to changes in key climatic variables, and then to superimpose probabilistic projections of future climate onto the response surface to assess the risk of impact. To illustrate this comparison, an impact model describing the spatial distribution of palsas in Fennoscandia was applied to estimate the risk of palsa disappearance. Palsas are northern mire complexes with permanently frozen peat hummocks, located at the outer limit of the permafrost zone and susceptible to rapid decline due to regional warming. Probabilities of climate changes were derived from an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections using a re-sampling method. Results indicated that the response surface approach, though introducing additional uncertainty, gave risk estimates of area decline for palsa suitability that were comparable to those obtained using multiple simulations with the original palsa model. It was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that a decline of area suitable for palsas to less than half of the baseline distribution will occur by the 2030s and likely (>66%) that all suitable areas will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century under scenarios of medium (A1B) and moderately high (A2) emissions. For a low emissions (B1) scenario, it was more likely than not (>50%) that conditions over a small fraction of the current palsa distribution would remain suitable until the end of the twenty-first century.     

Assessing links between upper atmospheric vorticity patterns and directional changes in hurricane tracks

Links between hurricane track changes and upper atmospheric potential vorticity (PV) anomaly patterns were identified qualitatively and analytically between 1990 and 2005 in the Western Atlantic. Strong track changes of hurricanes, particularly the constellations that triggered northward acceleration of the storm systems, were associated with upper-air PV patterns characterized by strongly positive anomalies to the northeast in combination with weak PV to the north of the system center. Constellations that triggered eventual eastward acceleration were associated with strongly positive PV anomalies to the northwest in combination with weak PV to the northeast of the system center. These results may assist hurricane forecasters and modelers in identifying possible signatures of future tropical cyclone tracks.