Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.     

Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review

This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil’s Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March–April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century.     

Identification of mid-latitudinal regional and urban temperature variabilities based on regional reanalysis data

The objective of the study is to detect geographical and temporal variations of near surface air temperatures over Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA derived from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. In addition, the study serves to assess the usefulness of NARR temperature data to analyze regional and local temperature variations. Particular emphasis was placed on the analyses on the temperature-modifying effects of the Great Lakes and large urban environments. We analyzed annual mean, daily maximum and minimum, and January minimum and July maximum temperatures for the period 1979–2006 by using methods such as ordinary kriging, principal component analysis, and the Mann–Kendall test. On a regional scale, we found significant effects of the latitude and the Great Lakes on the spatial variability of the data. Furthermore, we found clearly identifiable effects of large urban areas in the study region (Minneapolis—Saint Paul and Milwaukee), which are more evident in the principal component scores than in the temperature data themselves. While we failed to detect significant July maximum temperature trends, we detected significantly increasing trends in January minimum and mean annual temperature datasets in the eastern part of the region. Overall, the present study has demonstrated the potential of using NARR data for urban climate research.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

The aperiodic broad-band X-ray variability of Cygnus X-3

We study the soft X-ray variability of Cygnus X-3. By combining data from the All-Sky Monitor and Proportional Counter Array instruments on the RXTE satellite with EXOSAT /Medium Energy (ME) detector observations, we are able to analyse the power density spectrum (PDS) of the source from 10⁻⁹ to 0.1 Hz, thus covering time-scales from seconds to years. As the data on the longer time-scales are unevenly sampled, we combine traditional power spectral techniques with simulations to analyse the variability in this range. The PDS at higher frequencies  (≳10⁻³ Hz)  are for the first time compared for all states of this source. We find that it is for all states well described by a power law, with index  ∼−2  in the soft states and a tendency for a less steep power law in the hard state. At longer time-scales, we study the effect of the state transitions on the PDS, and find that the variability below  ∼10⁻⁷ Hz  is dominated by the transitions. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the length of a high/soft-state episode and the time since the previous high/soft state. On intermediate time-scales, we find evidence for a break in the PDS at time-scales of the order of the orbital period. This may be interpreted as evidence for the existence of a tidal resonance in the accretion disc around the compact object, and constraining the mass ratio to   M ₂/ M ₁≲ 0.3  .     

Spectral analysis of the 91bg-like Type Ia SN 2005bl: low luminosity, low velocities, incomplete burning

The properties of underluminous Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) of the 91bg subclass have yet to be theoretically understood. Here, we take a closer look at the structure of the dim SN Ia 2005bl. We infer the abundance and density profiles needed to reproduce the observed spectral evolution between −6 d and  +12.9 d  with respect to B maximum. Initially, we assume the density structure of the standard explosion model W7; then we test whether better fits to the observed spectra can be obtained using modified density profiles with different total masses and kinetic energies. Compared to normal SNe Ia, we find a lack of burning products especially in the rapidly expanding outer layers  ( v ≳ 15 000 km s⁻¹)  . The zone between ∼8500 and 15 000 km s⁻¹ is dominated by oxygen and includes some amount of intermediate-mass elements. At lower velocities, intermediate-mass elements dominate. This holds down to the lowest zones investigated in this work. This fact, together with negligible-to-moderate abundances of Fe-group elements, indicates large-scale incomplete Si burning or explosive O burning, possibly in a detonation at low densities. Consistently with the reduced nucleosynthesis, we find hints of a kinetic energy lower than that of a canonical SN Ia: the spectra strongly favour reduced densities at  ≳13 000 km s⁻¹  compared to W7, and are very well fitted using a rescaled W7 model with original mass  (1.38 M_⊙)  , but a kinetic energy reduced by ∼30 per cent (i.e. from  1.33 × 10⁵¹  to  0.93 × 10⁵¹ erg  ).     

Melting and Sublimation of Planetary Ices Under Low Pressure Conditions: Laboratory Experiments with a Melting Probe Prototype

One possibility to explore the subsurface layers of icy bodies is to use a probe with a “hot tip", which is able to penetrate ice layers by melting. Such probes have been built and used in the past for the exploration of terrestrial polar ice sheets and may also become useful tools to explore other icy layers in the Solar System. Examples for such layers are the polar areas of Mars or the icy crust of Jupiter’s moon Europa. However, while on Earth a heated probe launched into an ice sheet always causes melting with subsequent refreezing, the behaviour of such a probe in a low pressure environment is quite different. We report on the results of some experiments with a simple “melting probe" prototype with two different kinds of hot tips in a vacuum environment. For one of the tips the probe moved into two types of ice samples: (i) compact water ice and (ii) porous water ice with a snow (firn) like texture. It was also found that the penetration behaviour was basically different for the two sample types even when the same kind of tip was used. While in the porous sample the ice was only subliming, the phase changes occurring during the interaction of the tip with the compact ice are much more complex. Here alternating phases of melting and sublimation occur. The absence of the liquid phase has severe consequences on the performance of a “melting probe" under vacuum conditions: In this environment we find a high thermal resistance between the probe surface and the underlying ice. Therefore, only a low percentage of the heat that is generated in the tip is used to melt or sublime the ice, the bulk of the power is transferred towards the rear end of the probe. This is particularly a problem in the initial phases of an ice penetration experiment, when the probe has not yet penetrated the ice over its whole length. In the compact ice sample, phases could be observed, where a high enough gas pressure had built up locally underneath the probe, so that melting becomes possible. Only during these melting periods the thermal contact between the probe and the ice is good and in consequence the melting probe works effectively.