Analysis of the reliability of a statistical oil spill response model

A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning.     

A multi-disciplinary study of the 2002–03 Etna eruption: insights into a complex plumbing system

The 2002–03 Mt Etna flank eruption began on 26 October 2002 and finished on 28 January 2003, after three months of continuous explosive activity and discontinuous lava flow output. The eruption involved the opening of eruptive fissures on the NE and S flanks of the volcano, with lava flow output and fire fountaining until 5 November. After this date, the eruption continued exclusively on the S flank, with continuous explosive activity and lava flows active between 13 November and 28 January 2003. Multi-disciplinary data collected during the eruption (petrology, analyses of ash components, gas geochemistry, field surveys, thermal mapping and structural surveys) allowed us to analyse the dynamics of the eruption. The eruption was triggered either by (i) accumulation and eventual ascent of magma from depth or (ii) depressurisation of the edifice due to spreading of the eastern flank of the volcano. The extraordinary explosivity makes the 2002–03 eruption a unique event in the last 300 years, comparable only with La Montagnola 1763 and the 2001 Lower Vents eruptions. A notable feature of the eruption was also the simultaneous effusion of lavas with different composition and emplacement features. Magma erupted from the NE fissure represented the partially degassed magma fraction normally residing within the central conduits and the shallow plumbing system. The magma that erupted from the S fissure was the relatively undegassed, volatile-rich, buoyant fraction which drained the deep feeding system, bypassing the central conduits. This is typical of most Etnean eccentric eruptions. We believe that there is a high probability that Mount Etna has entered a new eruptive phase, with magma being supplied to a deep reservoir independent from the central conduit, that could periodically produce sufficient overpressure to propagate a dyke to the surface and generate further flank eruptions.Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan     

Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment: case study of the historic city centre of Coimbra, Portugal

Seismic risk evaluation of built-up areas involves analysis of the level of earthquake hazard of the region, building vulnerability and exposure. Within this approach that defines seismic risk, building vulnerability assessment assumes great importance, not only because of the obvious physical consequences in the eventual occurrence of a seismic event, but also because it is the one of the few potential aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings and the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to reduce the levels of physical damage, loss of life and the economic impact of future seismic events. Vulnerability studies of urban centres should be developed with the aim of identifying building fragilities and reducing seismic risk. As part of the rehabilitation of the historic city centre of Coimbra, a complete identification and inspection survey of old masonry buildings has been carried out. The main purpose of this research is to discuss vulnerability assessment methodologies, particularly those of the first level, through the proposal and development of a method previously used to determine the level of vulnerability, in the assessment of physical damage and its relationship with seismic intensity. Also presented and discussed are the strategy and proposed methodology adopted for the vulnerability assessment, damage and loss scenarios for the city centre of Coimbra, Portugal, using a GIS mapping application.     

Quasi-periodic fluctuations in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas region in a coupled climate model

We report an analysis of the mechanisms responsible for interannual variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in a control integration of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) is dominated by a quasi-periodic ∼7-year signal. Analyses show that the mechanism involves a competition between convection and advection. Advection carries cold, fresh, Arctic water over warm, salty, Atlantic water, while convection periodically mixes these two water masses vertically, raising SST. Convection is able to raise SST because of the presence of a subsurface temperature maximum. The GIN Seas convection in HadCM3 is forced by wind stress anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The consequent SST anomalies feedback positively to force the atmosphere, resulting in a weak spectral peak (at ∼7 years) in GIN Seas sea level pressure. Although there is no evidence of a similar oscillation in reality, key aspects of the simulated mechanism may be relevant to understanding variability in the real GIN Seas. In particular, the potential for increases in convection to raise SST offers a possible new explanation for increases in SST that occurred between the 1960s and the late 1980s/early 1990s. These SST increases may have contributed to the observed sea-ice retreat. In addition, a positive feedback between GIN Seas SST and the atmosphere could contribute to the persistence of the NAO, potentially helping to explain its red spectrum or recent northeastward shift.

Magmatic source and metamorphic grade of metavolcanic rocks from the Granjeno Schist: was northeastern Mexico a part of Pangaea?

The geochemistry of the metavolcanic rocks from the Granjeno Schist in northeastern Mexico indicates an origin in different tectonic environments: mid‐ocean ridge and ocean island. High ratios of Hf/Th and Th/Nb (4.4–14 and 0.08–0.15), low ratios of LaN/YbN and LaN/SmN (0.74–1.7 and 0.60–1.4) and depleted LREE patterns in metabasalt display mid‐ocean ridge characteristics. In contrast, the pattern of trace‐element ratios and REEs in metabasalt and metapillow lava 60 km to the west indicates a magma source with ocean‐island basalt characteristics. Both areas were metamorphosed during the Late Carboniferous (300 ± 4 Ma). Estimated metamorphic conditions deduced from white mica and chlorite compositions, distinguish greenschist facies (350 °C and 4 kbar) for the mid‐ocean ridge basalt, and prehnite–pumpellyite facies (250 °C and 2.5 kbar) for the ocean‐island‐type basalt. This metamorphism took place at an active continental margin during Pennsylvanian time. Our new tectonic model, which differs from earlier models, suggests that the origin of the Granjeno Schist is related to a subduction zone located at the western margin of Pangaea, active after Laurentia–Gondwana collision. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical and isotopic characterization of hydrocarbon gas traces in porewater of very low permeability rocks: The example of the Callovo-Oxfordian argillites of the eastern part of the Paris Basin

A methodology has been developed to determine chemical and carbon isotopic compositions of trace amounts of hydrocarbon gas compounds (methane, ethane, propane, iso- and normal-butane) present as dissolved compounds in the porewater of the low permeability Callovo-Oxfordian argillites in eastern Paris Basin, France. Results indicate that the studied hydrocarbons contain significant amounts of ethane, butane and propane, in addition to methane. Carbon isotopic compositions reflect primarily thermogenic origin (thermal cracking of organic matter), and lack of any significant biodegradation. Because temperature did not exceed 50 °C in the studied argillites, investigated hydrocarbons must have originated in hotter/deeper organic-bearing formations, possibly Stephanian coals. Data supports the predominance of high maturity thermogenic gas in the upper part of the Callovo-Oxfordian, and low maturity thermogenic gas mixed with minor bacterially produced methane in the lower part of the formation. A mixing between three end-member gases models quite well the data: one thermogenic gas with a low maturity (42% methane, with a δ¹³C of − 53‰), a gas with higher maturity (55% methane, with a δ¹³C of − 47‰) and a bacterial gas (99.45% methane, with a δ¹³C of − 80‰). This study illustrates that migration of hydrocarbon gases can take place in rocks with very low permeability and porosity, such as compacted mudrocks, given enough time. It further suggests that the studied fluid migration and transfer in aquitards would help characterization and understanding of fluid movements in sedimentary basins, as a complement to studies focused on water aquifers and hydrocarbon reservoirs. Chemical and isotopic composition of dissolved hydrocarbons in porewater can be used as natural tracers of fluid circulation in sedimentary basins, in addition to more conventional tracers.     

Household perceptions of climate change and preferences for mitigation action: the case of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in Australia

The study aims to reveal Australian households?? perceptions of climate change and their preferences for mitigation action. A web-based survey was conducted in November 2008 in which over 600 households from the state of New South Wales were asked for their willingness to bear extra household expenditure to support the ??Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme??, an emissions trading scheme proposed by the Australian government. The results of the study can be summarized in four key findings. First, respondents?? willingness to pay for climate change mitigation is significantly influenced by their beliefs of future temperature rise. Support for the policy increased at a decreasing rate as the perceived temperature change rose. Second, perceptions of policy failure have a significant negative impact on respondents?? support for the proposed mitigation measure. The higher the perceived likelihood that the measure would not deliver any outcome, the lower was the likelihood that respondents would support the policy. Third, respondent preferences for the proposed policy are influenced by the possibility of reaching a global agreement on emissions reduction. Sample respondents stated significantly higher values for the policy when the biggest polluting countries implement a similar scheme. Finally, respondents?? willingness to take action against climate change, both at the national and household level, is found to be influenced by their level of mass-media exposure. Particularly, those respondents who watched ??An Inconvenient Truth?? were significantly more likely to act for climate change mitigation than others.     

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.     

Lava discharge during Etna's January 2011 fire fountain tracked using MSG-SEVIRI

Etna's January 2011 eruption provided an excellent opportunity to test the ability of Meteosat Second Generation satellite's Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) sensor to track a short-lived effusive event. The presence of lava fountaining, the rapid expansion of lava flows, and the complexity of the resulting flow field make such events difficult to track from the ground. During the Etna's January 2011 eruption, we were able to use thermal data collected by SEVIRI every 15 min to generate a time series of the syn-eruptive heat flux. Lava discharge waxed over a ~1-h period to reach a peak that was first masked from the satellite view by a cold tephra plume and then was of sufficient intensity to saturate the 3.9-μm channel. Both problems made it impossible to estimate time-averaged lava discharge rates using the syn-eruptive heat flux curve. Therefore, through integration of data obtained by ground-based Doppler radar and thermal cameras, as well as ancillary satellite data (from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer), we developed a method that allowed us to identify the point at which effusion stagnated, to allow definition of a lava cooling curve. This allowed retrieval of a lava volume of ~1.2 × 10⁶ m³, which, if emitted for 5 h, was erupted at a mean output rate of ~70 m³ s⁻¹. The lava volume estimated using the cooling curve method is found to be similar to the values inferred from field measurements.