Seismic response of lined tunnels in the half-plane with surface topography

In this work, we examine the seismic response of multiple tunnels reinforced with liners and buried within the elastic homogeneous half-plane in the presence of surface relief. The seismic waves are upward propagating, time-harmonic, horizontally polarized shear (SH) waves. More specifically, we examine: (a) the scattered wave fields along the free surface and inside the half-plane with the embedded tunnels; (b) the dynamic stress concentration factors that develop at the soil-liner interfaces; (c) the stresses and displacements that develop inside the tunnel liners. We use a sub-structuring technique that is based on the direct boundary element method to model each constituent part of the problem separately. Then, assembly of the full problem is accomplished through the imposition of compatibility and equilibrium conditions at all interfaces. Next, a detailed verification study is carried out based on comparisons against available analytical and/or numerical results for a series of test examples. Subsequently, detailed numerical simulations are conducted and the results of these parametric studies reveal the influence of the following key parameters on the soil-tunnel system response: (a) the shape of the free-surface relief; (b) the depth of placement of the tunnels and their separation distance; (c) the SH-wavelength to tunnel diameter ratio; (d) the elastic properties of the tunnel lining rings and (e) the dynamic interaction effects between the free-surface relief and the tunnels.     

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.     

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.