PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME-AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES —A NATURALLY OCCURRING ANALOGUE STUDY

Naturally occurring analogues between the monthly averaged data of 1000,500 and 100 hPa geopotential height and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans during the period January 1956-December 1972 are used to study the potential predictability levels of forecasting the monthly mean ocean/atmosphere variables.It is found that in the ocean-atmosphere system the forecast of geopotential height may be more difficult than SST,and that the predictability level of monthly mean geopotential height anomaly calculated from the corresponding monthly mean SST appears relatively poor,but it can be improved by using the past observational data of monthly mean SST/geopotential fields.     

Measurements of level-crossing statistics of concentration fluctuations in plumes dispersing in the atmospheric surface layer

The statistics of level crossings and local extremes in concentration fluctuations in plumes dispersing in the atmosphere have been investigated. A set of concentration fluctuation tracer experiments has been utilized to measure the statistical propertics of the upcrossing interval (inter-arrival time between consecutive concentration bursts), excursion duration (persistence or width of concentration bursts), and concentration amplitude (difference between the maximum and minimum concentrations between successive upcrossings) with respect to a range of concentration crossing levels. In particular, the effect of downwind distance and atmospheric stratification on the level-crossing statistics has been studied in detail. It is shown that the effect of increasing atmospheric stability on level-crossing statistics is similar to the effect of increasing distance from the source in the sense that level-crossing statistics of concentration fluctuations in stable stratification resemble those in neutral stratification, but at a greater downwind distance. It is also found that the distribution of the interval between consecutive upcrossings of a concentration level, as well as the duration of an excursion across a concentration level, can be approximated by a lognormal distribution, whereas the distribution of the concentration amplitude is best characterized by a gamma distribution. Some implications of these results for the modeling of level-crossing statistics of concentration fluctuations are discussed.     

Community perception and participation,prospects in management of forests in marginal lands of Sudan

Fuelwood Development for Energy in Sudan project (GCP/SUD/033/NET) is undertaking research to formulate management plans for Sudan ecologically marginal forests. Rawashda and Wad Kabu forests are taken as examples to initiate sound plans. It is believed that the study of socio-economic parameters of forests users is an essential component to achieve such plan. This study is also fundamental for attaining an integrated land use system, as a prime option of natural resource use. This study is, consequently, aiming at:

1. Providing the base line information of the different communities identified in Tab 3 and using the two forests.
2. Examine people's attitude, perception, participation options in maintenance and management of the two forests. Such parameters are also vital for adoption of an integrated land use strategy in the future.
3. Based on (i) and (ii) to outline broadly the most relevant plan of management land use strategy to be adopted, based on community self-generated options of institutions and objectives of use.

The main findings in this context can be summarized in the following:

1. A complex pattern of economic activities (Tab 3) ranging from pure pastoral nomadism to modern mechanized farming, still characterized by combination of related activities of agricultural/livestock breeding, agriculture/forest resource use, etc. This diversity in activities, which is mostly dependent on the natural resource base, gives a sound base for any option of an integrated land use system.
2. Perception and attitude analysis have revealed a growing awareness of the role of the forest resources in the economy as source of grazing, domestic needs and source of income. This awareness is supported by willingness to participate in any integrated land use plan, yet from a different stand point and objective. Preference of self-generated channels is quite evident, but with a specified role of the government.
3. The major finding is that, and among all communities, the situation is mature for action, although at different levels.

Therefore, each community could be approached along relevant lines of action, as an initial phase before attaining a comprehensive land use plan. On-farm trials (OFTs) or in-herd trials seem to be more relevant compared with expert controlled trials. Any plan of action needs to be preceded by revision of present land tenure systems, establishing grass-root institutions, reorientation of concerned government departments, intensive extension programme and careful formulation of projects, execution and follow-up plans. Such steps need to be geared to narrow the ‘Perception gap’ of development between participants or users and planners.     

Pneumatic beneficiation of coal fines using the counter-current fluidized cascade

The counter-current gas-fluidized cascade (CFC) is a novel pneumatic device for separating mixed granular solids according to specific gravity. The possible utility of the CFC for beneficiation of coal in all size-ranges is presently under investigation, and in this paper some results are reported on pyrite beneficiation of synthetic pyrite-coal mixtures, and also on pyrite and ash beneficiation of as-received coal. The (geometric) mean particle size, by weight, of the coal used with added pyrite was 153 μm, and of the natural coal 233 μm. Preliminary results on the concentration of pyrite and ash in the reject streams indicate that CFC has some potential of being a simple and low-cost device for coal beneficiation.     

Water supply problems in the Butana region-central Sudan with special emphasis on Jebel Qeili area

The Butana region of central Sudan is famous for its animal wealth and extensive pastures. Yet scarcity of water resources in the area especially during the dry seasons handicaps the proper utilization of these pastures. The area is occupied by non-water-bearing basement rocks and the only source of water is from direct run-off. Thus large numbers of small-size water reservoirs, haffirs, were constructed, but these are inadequate to provide enough water for the growing human and animal population. An all-year lake is here proposed to be constructed utilizing the ring-structure the Jebel Qeili igneous complex, central Butana. This lake is expected to solve the present water problem and meet the future demand of central Butana at the present rate of human and animal growth.     

Subliquidus glass-glass immiscibility along the albite-diopside join

A calorimetric study has shown that glasses along the albite-diopside join in the system albiteanorthite-diopside have positive enthalpies of mixing. Thermodynamic calculations based on these data describe a nearly symmetric, metastable, subliquidus irascibility gap along the join with a critical temperature at 910 K. The existence of the miscibility gap was tested experimentally by annealing an Ab₅₀Di₅₀ glass at 748 K and 823 K. Annealed glasses were examined by optical microscopy and by scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The glasses showed morphological and chemical features consistent with unmixing of two glass phases. The apparent mechanism of phase separation involves initial spinodal decomposition followed by coarsening to produce 0.1 μm–0.3 μm spherical glass phases.     

Possible Evidence of Long-Term Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere

We have obtained the temporal correlation function, Q(t), from time sequences of Caii K filtergrams and Dopplergrams from Antarctica, Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Q(t) gives the time evolution of the pattern under examination, supergranulation in this case. It has been found that Q(t) shows oscillatory signals of both 5-min and long-term periods. The 5-min oscillations are suppressed by averaging the images over 10 min. An exponential decay curve which represents the lifetime trend of supergranules, is fitted to Q(t) and subtracted out. The Q(t) residuals thus obtained contain the oscillatory component and are then subjected to a periodogram analysis. Significant periodicities in the range of 1.4–10 hours have been noted. The causes of these oscillations are not fully known at present, but the instrumental and atmospheric factors can be ruled out, pointing to solar origin. Various possibilities are discussed. Some of the observed periodicities may be considered as probable candidates for long-term oscillations in the Sun, such as the elusive gravity modes.     

Feasible groundwater allocation scenarios for land subsidence area of Pingtung Plain,Taiwan

Land subsidence basically is the deprivation of water and earth resources, further inducing social and economical undesirable impact. The principal direction of land subsidence prevention is properly management of groundwater. However groundwater management should be developed on the basis of combined technical, economical, social and institutional approaches to management that reflect local conditions and can be adapted and evolved. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to make land subsidence prevention strategies for government to refer. Before year 1969, agriculture was the main land utilization business in Pingtung Plain. Due to intensive development of fish breeding after 1970’s, the aquaculture area along the estuary region of Pingtung Plain have been dramatically increased. Groundwater thus became the main fresh water resource for aquacultural water diluting and flushing because of the insufficiency in surface water supply. The uncontrolled development of groundwater resources has led to undesirable effects, especially in the south where aquaculture is concentrated. These effects are land subsidence, saline water intrusion, lowering of water tables and reductions in well yields. Government stressed on the improvement of breeding technology in the past, which mainly focused on the water quality control in order to raise the culture density, however, it neglected the impact to the environment and quantity control. This paper promotes a reasonable aquacultural water consumption policy aims at finding out the most suitable breeding species considering water consumption and its reasonable breeding area under the premise that it will not depress the original profit of aquatic products trading. Published in Russian in Vodnye Resursy, 2007, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2007, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 281–289. The text was submitted by the authors in English.