提为反问题的数值预报方法与试验 I. 三类反问题及数值解法

提为初值问题的数值预报在通过改进数值模式、观测手段及分析方法而改进预报的同时,仍然面临着两大困难,即模式误差和初值不完整。然而我们有大量的气候演变的历史观测资料,其中蕴含着关于气候系统的信息。本文针对这两个困难,系统地提出充分利用历史资料反演订正模式和初值进而改进数值预报的三类反问题,并给出数值解法。最后将三类反问题应用于一个简单模式进行反演预报的数值试验,其数值试验结果将在本文的第二部分给出。     

Urbanization and sustainable metropolitan development in China: Patterns, problems and prospects*

The path of urbanization in the People's Republic of China is largely shaped by the nation's industrial development strategies. In the first three decades of socialist construction, and especially after the Sino-Soviet rift at the end of the 1950s, the adoption of strategies of self-reliance had led to urban biased patterns of development. The introduction of economic reforms and the open door policy in 1978 paved the way for and facilitated national economic development. Two issues, which feature significantly in the processes of development in China, are assessed. The first is the relationship between economic development and the protection of arable land. The second is the quest for a coordinated hyper-development in both urban and rural areas. This paper concludes by proposing a sustainable metropolitan development strategy that suits the case of China. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

苏南太湖流域地下水过度开采引起的地面沉降及其防治对策

因地下水过量开采而引起的地面沉降是重要的地质灾害和生态环境问题,据最新统计资料,全国96个城市或地区发生了不同程度的地面沉降。苏南太湖流域由于城镇用水和工业用水的迅速增加,大量开采地下水,导致区域内出现了5000km^2的地区地面沉降,有些地区累计沉降量超过2．0m。地面沉降已经影响到区域的供水安全和生态安全,增加了基础设施建设成本,加快区域供水步伐,调整工业结构,加强水资源综合规划和管理是防治地面沉降的重要措施。     

基于植物昼夜释氧变化规律的复合垂直流人工湿地氮形态

为了研究植物根系释氧规律对人工湿地中硝化与反硝化作用的影响,采用传统连续运行方式及根据释氧规律调节的新型运行方式(白天连续进水、夜间停水),在复合垂直流人工湿地小试系统中进行实验,采用代表性的挺水植物香蒲作为湿地植物,水力负荷为0.71 m3/(m2.d).结果表明:系统内白天以好氧的硝化作用为主,夜间以厌氧、缺氧的反硝化作用为主,且在新型运行方式下,系统内白天亚硝酸盐氮累积量为传统运行方式的5倍,硝酸盐氮累积量为其2倍,夜间亚硝酸盐氮和硝酸盐氮减少量又分别比传统运行方式高64%和26%.这说明在新型运行方式下,人工湿地脱氮效果优于传统运行方式.     

Establishing absorbed energy spectra—an attenuation approach

For energy‐based seismic design, energy demand in the form of absorbed energy spectra was established by an attenuation relationship. The absorbed energy is proposed for evaluating the energy demand in an inelastic system because the absorbed energy is directly related to the pseudo‐velocity in the elastic case. Based on a total of 273 ground motion records from 15 significant earthquakes in California, an attenuation relationship of the absorbed energy was established from a two‐stage non‐linear regression analysis. This relationship was established for a given earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, site class, and ductility factor. A similar expression for the normalized absorbed energy was also developed. This study showed that the absorbed energy for near‐field ground motions can be significantly larger than that predicted by the attenuation relationship for normal ground motions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈全国第二次土地调查项目的几个关键环节

介绍了全国第二次土地调查项目中调绘底图生产、土地调查、田坎系数测定、农村宅基地调查等关键环节,结合实际生产,分析了各环节的重要性及实施情况。     

青海玉树地震差分干涉雷达同震形变测量

2010-04-14青海玉树发生7.1级地震后,作者利用震前和震后获取的日本ALOS卫星PALSAR遥感数据,开展了差分干涉雷达(D-InSAR)地震同震形变测量与分析。结果表明:玉树地震引起较大范围地表变形,地震变形沿玉树—甘孜断裂带向南东东方向扩展,在N33.7°,E96.81°附近达到最大形变量,D-InSAR监测到雷达视向上的最大形变量为35cm。地表形变特征对于评价玉树地震破坏程度、推断断层性质、研究地震形变和地震孕育特征具有重要的参考价值。     

变化环境下半干旱草原流域径流变化特征及其影响因子定量分析

地表水文过程在气候波动和人类活动的作用下发生了不可忽视的变化,这种变化对于内蒙古半干旱草原流域来说更为显著。采用改进的M-K趋势检验法、双累积曲线法、累积距平法和小波变换法对典型半干旱草原流域——锡林河流域1963～2015年径流序列的变化特征进行了剖析,并以社会经济指标量化流域内人类活动影响及细化降水特征因素,运用统计检验和主成分分析进行了变化环境下流域径流主要影响因素的定量分析。结果表明,锡林河流域径流量在水文年、季尺度呈现显著(p0.05)减少趋势;流域径流的突变年份为1998年,在其前后影响径流变化的主导因素发生变化,1998年以后径流受到人类活动和气候变化的双重影响;水文年和枯水季径流序列均存在6年、25年左右的周期,而丰水季径流不存在显著周期变化;尽管气候因素中的降水、蒸发、相对湿度及所有人类活动因素与径流显著相关而影响径流,但其中人类活动为径流变化的主导因素。     

Principal stress rotation and cyclic shear strength for an elliptical rotation stress path

Based on the analytical solutions for wave-induced soil response in an unsaturated anisotropic seabed of finite thickness, an elliptical, i.e., noncircular rotation stress path is proven to be a more common state in a soil element with the cyclic shear stresses due to the traveling linear wave. The influence of an elliptical stress path on the characterization of failure strength is analyzed using three new parameters representing the shape, size, and the orientation of the ellipse. A series of cyclic rotational shear tests on the reconstituted specimens of Chinese Fujian Standard Sand have been performed to investigate the effect of elliptical stress path. A strength function in term of failure cycles is derived to quantify the failure strength of a given sand within a seabed subjected to regular wave loading. The results provide a basis for the evaluation of liquefaction potential of seabed but also point to a unique backbone cycle shear strength curve for soil under principal stress rotation.     

Constitutive model for cyclic behaviour of cohesionless sands

This paper presents a constitutive model for describing the stress-strain response of sands under cyclic loading. The model, formulated using the critical state theory within the bounding surface plasticity framework, is an upgraded version of an existing model developed for monotonic behaviour of cohesionless sands. With modification of the hardening law, plastic volumetric strain increment and unloading plastic modulus, the original model was modified to simulate cyclic loading. The proposed model was validated against triaxial cyclic loading tests for Fuji River sand, Toyoura sand and Nigata sand. Comparison between the measured and predicted results suggests that the proposed modified model can capture the main features of cohesionless sands under drained and undrained cyclic loading.