An integrated evaluation of thirteen modelling solutions for the generation of hourly values of air relative humidity

The availability of hourly air relative humidity (HARH) data is a key requirement for the estimation of epidemic dynamics of plant fungal pathogens, in particular for the simulation of both the germination of the spores and the infection process. Most of the existing epidemic forecasting models require these data as input directly or indirectly, in the latter case for the estimation of leaf wetness duration. In many cases, HARH must be generated because it is not available in historical series and when there is the need to simulate epidemics either on a wide scale or with different climate scenarios. Thirteen modelling solutions (MS) for the generation of this variable were evaluated, with different input requirements and alternative approaches, on a large dataset including several sites and years. A composite indicator was developed using fuzzy logic to compare and to evaluate the performances of the models. The indicator consists of four modules: Accuracy, Correlation, Pattern and Robustness. Results showed that when available, daily maximum and minimum air relative humidity data substantially improved the estimation of HARH. When such data are not available, the choice of the MS is crucial, given the difference in predicting skills obtained during the analysis, which allowed a clear detection of the best performing MS. This study represents the first step of the creation of a robust modelling chain coupling the MS for the generation of HARH and disease forecasting models, including the systematic validation of each step of the simulation.     

Spatial and temporal rockfall activity in a forest stand in the Swiss Prealps—A dendrogeomorphological case study

Rockfall is a major threat to settlements and transportation routes in large parts of the Alps. While protective forest stands in many locations undoubtedly reduce rockfall risk, little is known about the exact frequency and spatial distribution of rockfall activity in a given place or about how these parameters can be assessed. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to reconstruct rockfall events with dendrogeomorphological methods and to analyse the spatial and temporal rockfall activity in a subalpine forest stand. The study site is located in the transit zone of frequently passing, rather small rockfall fragments (mean diameter of 10 to 20 cm). In all, 33 stem discs from previously felled Picea abies trees found at the foot of Schwarzenberg in Diemtigtal (Swiss Prealps) were sampled, and a total number of 301 rockfall events were dated to between A.D. 1724 and 2002.Results showed that the spatial distribution of rockfall changed slightly with time, and that rockfall activity increased considerably over the last century. In contrast, rockfall magnitude presumably remained on a comparable level. The seasonal occurrence of rockfall showed a clear peak during the dormant season of trees, most probably in early spring. Furthermore, on a 10-year moving average basis, rockfall rates were positively correlated with mean annual as well as summer and winter temperatures. This means that higher temperatures resulted in increased rockfall activity. On the other hand, no correlation with annual or seasonal precipitation totals was revealed. Overall, this study provides an appropriate method for the detailed assessment of spatial and temporal variations in rockfall activity in a given place.     

Development of water management strategies in southern Mesopotamia during the fourth and third millennium B.C.E.

The last two decades witnessed increasing scholarly interest in the history of water management in southern Mesopotamia. Thanks to many geoarchaeological research projects conducted throughout the central and southern Iraqi floodplains, a general understanding of the macrophases of anthropogenic manipulation of this vast hydraulic landscape has been achieved. However, current narratives mostly rely on studies at a regional scale and are based on excessively long chronological phases (often spanning a whole millennium). A finer-tuned analysis at a submillennial scale is needed to better appreciate the dynamics that led to the development of artificial canals and irrigation systems and the creation of harbours in cities and other navigation-related facilities. The Iraqi-Italian QADIS project is addressing this issue through a systematic geoarchaeological investigation in the south-eastern area of the Qadisiyah province. We aim to update the current narrative by analysing case studies involving specific periods of occupation. We performed 17 boreholes to propose a date on the functioning period of the hydraulic works in five selected archaeological sites of this region. This approach allowed us to understand changes in water management strategies in both the short and the medium term (i.e., on a scale of centuries). In this paper, we present the results for the fourth and third millennia B.C.E. This period witnessed a crucial passage from the basic exploitation of natural watercourses for irrigation and occasional navigation to the emergence of the first system of artificial canals and intraurban harbours.     

Looking beyond the neighbourhood: income inequality and residential segregation in Swedish metropolitan areas, 1991–2010

In recent years, residential segregation has become a major issue in the Swedish policy debate. The prevailing view is that residential segregation is a crucial contributing factor to the development of income inequality, since individual income prospects are thought to be influenced by the population characteristics of their neighbourhoods. This study takes the opposite approach and analyses the extent to which, in the period 1991–2010, rising income inequality contributed to the development of residential segregation by income in Swedish metropolitan areas. The period was characterized by unprecedented growth in income inequality, which was associated with a decline in the redistributive power of the welfare state. Residential segregation by income mirrored locally the general trend in income inequality. Another factor was the change in income dispersion in neighbourhoods, relative to the metropolitan areas as a whole, which indicates a tendency towards increased population homogeneity in neighbourhoods with respect to income.     

Climate change and uncertainty assessment over a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan

Predictions of a warmer climate over the Great Lakes region due to global change generally agree on the magnitude of temperature changes, but precipitation projections exhibit dependence on which General Circulation Models and emission scenarios are chosen. To minimize model- and scenario-specific biases, we combined information provided by the 3rd phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database. Specifically, the results of 12 GCMs for three emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 were analyzed for mid- (2046–2065) and end-century (2081–2100) intervals, for six locations of a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan. As a result of Bayesian Weighted Averaging, total annual precipitation averaged over all locations and the three emission scenarios increases by 7 % (mid-)–10 % (end-century), as compared to the control period (1961–1990). The projected changes across seasons are non-uniform and precipitation decreases by 3 % (mid-)–5 % (end-) for the months of August and September are likely. Further, average temperature is very likely to increase by 2.02–2.85 °C by the mid-century and 2.58–4.73 °C by the end-century. Three types of non-additive uncertainty sources due to climate models, anthropogenic forcings, and climate internal variability are addressed. When compared to the emission uncertainty, the relative magnitudes of the uncertainty types for climate model ensemble and internal variability are 149 and 225 % for mean monthly precipitation, and they are respectively 127 and 123 % for mean monthly temperature. A decreasing trend of the frost days and an increasing trend of the growing season length are identified. Also, a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected, with relatively more pronounced changes for heavy hourly rainfall as compared to daily events. Quantifying the inherent natural uncertainty and projecting hourly-based extremes, the study results deliver useful information for water resource stakeholders interested in impacts of climate change on hydro-morphological processes.     

Linking meteorites to their asteroid parent bodies: The capabilities of dust analyzer instruments during asteroid flybys

Linking meteorites to their asteroid parent bodies remains an outstanding issue. Space-based dust characterization using impact ionization mass spectrometry is a proven technique for the compositional analysis of individual cosmic dust grains. Here we investigate the feasibility of determining asteroid compositions via cation mass spectrometric analyses of their dust ejecta clouds during low (7–9 km s⁻¹) velocity spacecraft flybys. At these speeds, the dust grain mass spectra are dominated by easily ionized elements and molecular species. Using known bulk mineral volume abundances, we show that it is feasible to discriminate the common meteorite classes of carbonaceous chondrites, ordinary chondrites, and howardite–eucrite–diogenite achondrites, as well as their subtypes, relying solely on the detection of elements with ionization efficiencies of ≤700 or ≤800 kJ mol⁻¹, applicable to low (~7 km s⁻¹) and intermediate (~9 km s⁻¹) flyby speed scenarios, respectively. Including the detection of water ion groups enables greater discrimination between certain meteorite types, and flyby speeds ≥10 km s⁻¹ enhance the diagnostic capabilities of this technique still further. Although additional terrestrial calibration is required, this technique may allow more unequivocal asteroid-meteorite connections to be determined by spacecraft flybys, emphasizing the utility of dust instruments on future asteroid missions.     

Assessment of toxicological status of a SW Mediterranean segment population of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) using skin biopsy

Various studies have revealed high concentrations of contaminants such as organochlorines (OCs) and heavy metals in Mediterranean cetaceans. A geographical trend of contamination (PCBs and DDTs) has been found for striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba). In this study we used a non-lethal approach (skin biopsy) to investigate bioaccumulation of OCs, including polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), trace elements (Hg, Cd, Pb) and CYP1A activity (BPMO) in nine striped dolphins sampled in the Aeolian area (Sicily – Italy) in summer 2002. The arithmetic mean value of BPMO activity in this group was 43.46 AUF/g tissue/h. This value is approximately 3 times and 5 times lower, respectively, than the value found in the Ionian and in the Ligurian groups. Skin biopsies of striped dolphins emerged as a suitable material for assessing the toxicological status of the various Mediterranean groups.     

The effect of star formation on the evolution of Blue Compact Dwarf galaxies

We study the effect of different star formation regimes on the dynamical and chemical evolution of Blue Compact Dwarf galaxies. To do that, we adopt a 2-D hydrocode coupled with detailed chemical yields originating from SNeII, SNeIa and from intermediate-mass stars. We apply this kind of simulation to a model of galaxy resembling IZw18. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Lake levels in the southern Bolivian Altiplano (19°–21°S.) during the Late Glacial based on diatom studies

This study is focused on the endorheic Uyni-Coipasa Basin located in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. Stratigraphical and fossil diatom studies based on a detailed radiocarbon chrnology revealed six phases in water-level changes and paleosalinity variations. At 15,430±80 yr B.P., lacustrine conditions settled in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. A saline lake, characterized by benthic meso-metasaline species, reached +4 m altitude above the present bottom of the basin. After 15,430±80 yr B.P., the level rapidly rose to +27 m, as suggested by a tychoplanktonic mesosaline flora. Between 14,500 years and 13,000 years, finely lanminated sediments at +32 m contained successively a dominance of epiphytic mesosaline to hypersaline species and tychoplanktonic oligosaline diatoms, indicating weak fluctuations in water-level and salinity. At 13,000 years, strong changes in the diatom flora occurred; epiphytic oligo-hypersaline diatoms were replaced by planktonic meso-polysaline species. They indicate a deep salt lake (the lake reached +100 m). After 12,000 years, the lake level abruptly dropped, as suggested by fluviatile sediments with a benthic mesopolysaline diatom flora. The main lake was replaced by shallow saline ponds. A wet pulse occurred at 11,400 years, characterized by low water level (+7 m) and high salinity. This lacustrine phase remained until 10,400 yr B.P. These data indicate changes in Precipitation minus Evaporation (P-E). Our regional interpretations are based on a comparison with teh available data on the northern (Lake Titicaca) and southern (Lipez are) Bolivian Altiplano and on the northern Chilean Altiplano (Atacama Desert).     

Time evolution of complex networks: commuting systems in insular Italy

The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of the commuting system of two insular regions of Italy, Sardinia and Sicily, inspected as complex networks. The authors refer to a 20-year time period and take into account three census data sets about the work and study-driven inter-municipal origin-destination movements of residential inhabitants in 1981, 1991 and 2001. Since it is likely that the number of municipalities (in this case, the vertices of the system) does not display sharp variations, the authors direct the study to the variation of the properties emerging through both a topological and a weighted network representation of commuting in the time periods indicated.