Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Xenon Isotopic Activity Ratios

A global monitoring system for atmospheric xenon radioactivity is being established as part of the International Monitoring System that will verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) once the treaty has entered into force. This paper studies isotopic activity ratios to support the interpretation of observed atmospheric concentrations of ¹³⁵Xe, ^133mXe, ¹³³Xe and ^131mXe. The goal is to distinguish nuclear explosion sources from civilian releases. Simulations of nuclear explosions and reactors, empirical data for both test and reactor releases as well as observations by measurement stations of the International Noble Gas Experiment (INGE) are used to provide a proof of concept for the isotopic ratio based method for source discrimination.     

Examining the physical components of boundary shear stress for water‐worked gravel deposits

It is argued in this commentary that, in order to understand better the physical mechanisms that generate boundary shear stress over water‐worked gravel beds, flow velocity data should be re‐evaluated by spatial averaging the Reynolds equations to produce time‐ and space‐averaged (double‐averaged) momentum equations. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted in which the flow velocities were measured using a PIV system over two water‐worked gravel deposits. Combined with detailed data on the bed surface topography and vertical porosity, the physical components of shear stress were obtained. This enabled the various momentum transfer mechanisms present above, within and at the interface of a porous, fluvial deposit, to be quantified. This included the examination of the relevant contributions of temporal and spatial fluctuations in velocity and surface drag to the overall momentum transfer. It is demonstrated that double‐averaging represents a logical framework for assessing the fluid forces responsible for sediment entrainment and for investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange mechanisms within the roughness layer in water‐worked gravel deposits. By considering the physical components of shear stress and their relative sizes it was possible to provide a physically based explanation for existing observations of enhanced mobility of gravel–sand mixtures and the transfer of solutes into porous, gravel deposits. This analysis reveals the importance of obtaining co‐located, high quality spatial data on the flow field and bed surface topography in order to gain a physical understanding of the mechanisms which generate boundary shear stress. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developments in optically stimulated luminescence age control for geoarchaeological sediments and hearths in western New South Wales,Australia

Research conducted by the Western New South Wales Archaeology Program (WNSWAP) provides the opportunity to assess the reliability of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial sediments and burnt stone samples from arid zone geoarchaeological contexts. A large number of radiocarbon age determinations of charcoal preserved in heat retainer hearths provides independent chronological control at these contexts. We describe a rapid OSL methodology for dating burnt hearth stones to complement previously applied radiocarbon methods, which we have tested using 37 samples from hearths with radiocarbon determinations. We propose a geoarchaeological model in which these hearths were constructed by people whose activity took place on an archaeological surface, formed by the earlier deposition of fluvial sediments. Here we demonstrate the veracity of this model by dating sediments lying stratigraphically below the hearths, and use the radiocarbon age control and chronological consistency to assess the accuracy and reliability of both small aliquot and single grain single aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) OSL dating. While small aliquot age estimates are in most cases in agreement with independent control, the single grain determinations using a finite mixture model (FMM) appear to provide improved chronological resolution. Using single grains, we note some problems in the application of the FMM and in the dating of young samples in the range of 1–100 years. As many samples may have resided close to the surface since deposition, we have developed a mathematical function to describe gamma and cosmic dose rate contributions at burial depths down to 40 cm. These OSL age estimates allow us to reject the model of intensification of human activity as responsible for the observed pattern of archaeological radiocarbon determinations in this part of the Australian arid zone.     

Apparent dynamic stability of the southeast African coast despite sea level rise

The coast of southeast Africa is dominated by sandy beaches that tend to be confined within log‐spiral or headland‐bound embayments. Investigations using serendipitous air imagery data set have been previously undertaken and conclusions drawn about the stability of the coast. We show that conclusions drawn from this data, with respect to the high water mark (HWM) position are fraught with errors, which include tidal state, pressure regime, beach slope, high‐swell erosion, seasonal and multi‐annual changes. We highlight and discuss these sources of error, together with their magnitudes. The most significant of these are the high‐swell, seasonal and multi‐annual variations. From case studies we show that the seasonal beach rotation and long‐term beach width variation are responsible for tens of metres of unaccounted HWM variation, 30 to 50 m is common, with maximums reaching 60 to 100 m. Overall the southeast African coastline appears to be in a state of long‐term dynamic equilibrium. There is no evidence of any sea‐level rise‐forced transgression in the coastal sediment budget, despite sea‐level rise (SLR). If such a signal is, in fact present, it is lost within the beach width variation. Some southeast African coastal reaches are suffering chronic erosion, but these are related to anthropogenic impacts. The extreme difficulty of placing a HWM, with any temporal validity on this coast precludes the routine use of the Bruun Rule. Although no transgressive signature is found, there is evidence of a decreasing coastal sand budget as a result of anthropogenic or natural climate change, or both. This decrease in the coastal sand volume is likely to result in increased future erosion. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of river restoration on catchment scale flood risk and flood hydrology

A rising exposure to flood risk is a predicted consequence of increased development in vulnerable areas and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change. In the face of this challenge, a continued reliance on engineered at‐a‐point flood defences is seen as both unrealistic and undesirable. The contribution of ‘soft engineering’ solutions (e.g. riparian forests, wood in rivers) to integrated, catchment scale flood risk management has been demonstrated at small scales but not larger ones. In this study we use reduced complexity hydrological modelling to analyse the effects of land use and channel changes resulting from river restoration upon flood flows at the catchment scale. Results show short sections of river‐floodplain restoration using engineered logjams, typical of many current restoration schemes, have highly variable impacts on catchment‐scale flood peak magnitude and so need to be used with caution as a flood management solution. Forested floodplains have a more general impact upon flood hydrology, with areas in the middle and upper catchment tending to show reductions in peak magnitude at the catchment outflow. The most promising restoration scenarios for flood risk management are for riparian forest restoration at the sub‐catchment scale, representing 20–40% of the total catchment area, where reductions in peak magnitude of up to 19% are observed through de‐synchronization of the timings of sub‐catchment flood waves. Sub‐catchment floodplain forest restoration over 10–15% of total catchment area can lead to reductions in peak magnitude of 6% at 25 years post‐restoration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation and propagation of volcanic source parameter uncertainty in an ash transport and dispersal model: application to the Eyjafjallajokull plume of 14–16 April 2010

Data on source conditions for the 14 April 2010 paroxysmal phase of the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption, Iceland, have been used as inputs to a trajectory-based eruption column model, bent. This model has in turn been adapted to generate output suitable as input to the volcanic ash transport and dispersal model, puff, which was used to propagate the paroxysmal ash cloud toward and over Europe over the following days. Some of the source parameters, specifically vent radius, vent source velocity, mean grain size of ejecta, and standard deviation of ejecta grain size have been assigned probability distributions based on our lack of knowledge of exact conditions at the source. These probability distributions for the input variables have been sampled in a Monte Carlo fashion using a technique that yields what we herein call the polynomial chaos quadrature weighted estimate (PCQWE) of output parameters from the ash transport and dispersal model. The advantage of PCQWE over Monte Carlo is that since it intelligently samples the input parameter space, fewer model runs are needed to yield estimates of moments and probabilities for the output variables. At each of these sample points for the input variables, a model run is performed. Output moments and probabilities are then computed by properly summing the weighted values of the output parameters of interest. Use of a computational eruption column model coupled with known weather conditions as given by radiosonde data gathered near the vent allows us to estimate that initial mass eruption rate on 14 April 2010 may have been as high as 10⁸?kg/s and was almost certainly above 10⁷?kg/s. This estimate is consistent with the probabilistic envelope computed by PCQWE for the downwind plume. The results furthermore show that statistical moments and probabilities can be computed in a reasonable time by using 9⁴?=?6,561 PCQWE model runs as opposed to millions of model runs that might be required by standard Monte Carlo techniques. The output mean ash cloud height plus three standard deviations??encompassing c. 99.7?% of the probability mass??compares well with four-dimensional ash cloud position as retrieved from Meteosat-9 SEVIRI data for 16 April 2010 as the ash cloud drifted over north-central Europe. Finally, the ability to compute statistical moments and probabilities may allow for the better separation of science and decision-making, by making it possible for scientists to better focus on error reduction and decision makers to focus on ??drawing the line?? for risk assessment.     

Contrasting pyroclast density spectra from subaerial and submarine silicic eruptions in the Kermadec arc: implications for eruption processes and dredge sampling

Pyroclastic deposits from four caldera volcanoes in the Kermadec arc have been sampled from subaerial sections (Raoul and Macauley) and by dredging from the submerged volcano flanks (Macauley, Healy, and the newly discovered Raoul SW). Suites of 16–32?mm sized clasts have been analyzed for density and shape, and larger clasts have been analyzed for major element compositions. Density spectra for subaerial dry-type eruptions on Raoul Island have narrow unimodal distributions peaking at vesicularities of 80–85%, whereas ingress of external water (wet-type eruption) or extended timescales for degassing generate broader distributions, including denser clasts. Submarine-erupted pyroclasts show two different patterns. Healy and Raoul SW dredge samples and Macauley Island subaerial-emplaced samples are dominated by modes at ~80–85%, implying that submarine explosive volcanism at high eruption rates can generate clasts with similar vesicularities to their subaerial counterparts. A minor proportion of Healy and Raoul SW clasts also show a pink oxidation color, suggesting that hot clasts met air despite 0.5 to >1?km of intervening water. In contrast, Macauley dredged samples have a bimodal density spectrum dominated by clasts formed in a submarine-eruptive style that is not highly explosive. Macauley dredged pyroclasts are also the mixed products of multiple eruptions, as shown by pumice major-element chemistry, and the sea-floor deposits reflect complex volcanic and sedimentation histories. The Kermadec calderas are composite features, and wide dispersal of pumice does not require large single eruptions. When coupled with chemical constraints and textural observations, density spectra are useful for interpreting both eruptive style and the diversity of samples collected from the submarine environment.     

Carbon dioxide fluxes and DOC concentrations of eroding blanket peat gullies

UK peatlands are affected by severe gully erosion with consequent impacts on ecosystem services from these areas. Incision into the peat can damage the vegetation and hydrology and lead to increases in carbon loss and sediment transfer downstream. Gullies represent then a conduit for and a hotspot of carbon loss but the relatively high water tables of gullies have meant that they have been identified as areas with a high restoration potential because of easily restored peat‐forming conditions. This study uses a series of gully sites, subject to different restoration interventions, to investigate differences in carbon pathways (DOC, CO₂) and hydrology between restoration strategies and gully position. The results show that the position within the gully (interfluve, gully side, or gully floor) does not significantly affect water quality but that it plays a significant role in CO₂ exchange. Gully floors are areas of high photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration, though net ecosystem exchange is not significantly different across the gully. While gully position plays a role in the cycling of some carbon species, this study highlights the importance of vegetation as a key control on carbon cycling. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Roles of financial innovation and information technology: Lessons from US sub-prime mortgage crisis and its implications for China

The mortgage loan has evolved from a local lending instrument into a major global security and its role is unparallel to other financial instruments in the process of financial globalization.This paper explains how technology and financial innovation transformed the mortgage loan from a local security into a premier global security traded worldwide.It examines the fundamental flaws of this process and why it does not work in regards to mortgage lending and the re-securitization products that were created through financial innovation.The findings show that regulation was unable to keep pace with financial innovation,which created an environment where actors in the financial service sector were able to behave geographically irresponsibly by using information asymmetries to their advantage by participating in moral hazard activities and engaging in other immoral and unethical business practices that were centered around localized geography,which ultimately contributed to the global financial crisis.It also examines the roll of financial innovation in regard to the Lehman Brothers Mini-Bond in Hong and its role as a driving force behind China’s newly emerging shadow banking sector.It concludes with a policy recommendation and its implication for China’s continued economic development.     

Sediment transport mechanics

The Editor of Acta Geophysica and the Guest Editors wish to dedicate this Topical Issue on Sediment Transport Mechanics to the memory of Stephen Coleman, who died recently. During his career, Stephen had made an outstanding scientific contribution to the topic of Sediment Transport. The level of his contribution is demonstrated in the paper by Aberle, Coleman, and Nikora included in this issue, on which he started working before becoming aware of the illness that led to his untimely death. For scholars and colleagues Stephen remains an example of intellectual honesty and scientific insight.