含不同随机缺陷数目岩样的破坏过程、前兆及全部变形特征

利用拉格朗日元法模拟了平面应变单轴压缩条件下具有初始随机材料缺陷的岩石试样的破坏过程、前兆和宏观力学响应.利用若干FISH函数于岩样内部规定初始缺陷并计算全部变形特征.比密实岩石弱的缺陷在破坏之后经历理想塑性行为.密实岩石在破坏之后先是经历线性应变软化行为,然后是理想塑性行为.随着缺陷数目的增加,剪切带间距缩小;岩样的强度下降.在应变软化阶段,最大不平衡力的明显的突增是由于被剪切带切割的试样块体发生了沿剪切带方向的运动.试样内部的缺陷数目越少,应变软化阶段最大不平衡力的峰值越高.无论从单元破坏角度,还是从侧向应变-轴向应变曲线、体积应变-轴向应变曲线、计算得到的泊松比-轴向应变曲线角度,都得到了相同的结论（即,缺陷越多,破坏前兆越明显）.采用两条倾斜的扫描线对岩样最终的破坏形态进行了扫描,发现当扫描线间距等于半个至1个单元长度时,初始随机缺陷位置与岩样最终破坏形态具有很好的相关性.     

中年男性用力肺活量正常参考值的地理分布规律

为制定中国中年男性用力肺活量正常参考值的统一标准提供科学依据,收集了国内189个单位测定的16461例中年男性用力肺活量正常参考值,应用SPSS统计软件,运用相关分析和回归分析的方法,研究了其与8项地理因素指标的关系。结果发现期间存在很显著的相关关系;用逐步回归分析的方法推导出回归方程,如果知道某地的地理因素,就可以用回归方程计算该地区的中年男性用力肺活量正常参考值。依据中年男性用力肺活量正常参考值与地理因素的依赖关系,把中国分为8个区。     

贵州典型森林植被群落营养元素生物循环空间信息模型构建

将生态过程模型中营养元素生物循环数值模拟、基于过程的植被生产力模型与遥感驱动的光能利用率模型相耦合,构建森林植被营养元素生物循环空间信息模型。模型弥补了营养元素生物循环过程模型中空间分析和参数获取复杂的不足,并在植被生产力光能利用率模型中引入营养元素胁迫的定量表达。将模型模块化,耦合于自主开发的EcoHAT系统(EcoHydrology Assessment Tools),以贵州典型森林群落为研究对象,对群落生产力和营养元素生物循环的关键过程的时空演变模式进行了模拟和研究。运用实验数据进行验证,取得良好的效果,可见模型计算可以较为真实地反映区域营养元素生物循环关键过程的时空格局。     

Flow-induced vegetation uprooting in a meandering bend:Experimental investigation

Vegetation uprooting is a complex process which depends on many interrelated factors. In this paper,attention is focused on the flow-induced uprooting in river bends, where the flow characteristics vary as effected by the channel’s curvature and its continuous changing in the downstream direction. Results are presented by an experimental work done in a high-amplitude meandering flume with mature herbaceous vegetation on the bed. In the first part of the paper, the variation along the bend of the...     

Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves and Down-Hole Tests in the Archeological “Palatine Hill” Area (Rome,Italy): Evaluation and Influence of 2D Effects on the Shear Wave Velocity

A joint analysis of down-hole (DH) and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) measurements offers a complete evaluation of shear wave velocity profiles, especially for sites where a strong lateral variability is expected, such as archeological sites. In this complex stratigraphic setting, the high “subsoil anisotropy” (i.e., sharp lithological changes due to the presence of anthropogenic backfill deposits and/or buried man-made structures) implies a different role for DH and MASW tests. This paper discusses some results of a broad experimental program conducted on the Palatine Hill, one of the most ancient areas of the city of Rome (Italy). The experiments were part of a project on seismic microzoning and consisted of 20 MASW and 11 DH tests. The main objective of this study was to examine the difficulties related to the interpretation of the DH and MASW tests and the reliability limits inherent in the application of the noninvasive method in complex stratigraphic settings. As is well known, DH tests provide good determinations of shear wave velocities (Vs) for different lithologies and man-made materials, whereas MASW tests provide average values for the subsoil volume investigated. The data obtained from each method with blind tests were compared and were correlated to site-specific subsurface conditions, including lateral variability. Differences between punctual (DH) and global (MASW) Vs measurements are discussed, quantifying the errors by synthetic comparison and by site response analyses. This study demonstrates that, for archeological sites, V_S profiles obtained from the DH and MASW methods differ by more than 15 %. However, the local site effect showed comparable results in terms of natural frequencies, whereas the resolution of the inverted shear wave velocity was influenced by the fundamental mode of propagation.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

南海北部琼东南盆地地层结构与地壳伸展特征

琼东南盆地发育于前新生代基底之上,作为南海被动大陆边缘一部分,记录了南海北部裂陷盆地结构及其演化.利用最新钻井、反射地震、重力等资料,分析新生代盖层和前新生代基底地壳结构,建立盆地地层结构模型,然后计算全盆地地壳伸展变化特征.结果表明:新生代地层序列的盆地充填由西向东逐渐减薄,古近纪、新近纪以及第四纪期间(45 Ma~现今)最后沉积中心呈现逐渐向西或西南迁移趋势.下地壳局部表现为地震速度偏高(厚度2~4 km,v_P>7.0 km·s^-1,水平延伸范围约为40~70 km).重震联合模拟显示这里存在密度偏高特征,推测存在可能与张裂晚期和扩张早期岩浆物质底侵或混合到伸展程度较低的大陆地壳有关.计算获得的前新生代基底地壳厚度由在弱展区域陆架区约25 km,在减薄最大区域中央坳陷为3 km.伸展系数(β)最高值大于6.0出现在中央坳陷,低值小于2.0在坳陷南北两侧,说明地壳在盆地中央拉伸比较剧烈.     

The 3640–3510 BC rhyodacite eruption of Chachimbiro compound volcano,Ecuador: a violent directed blast produced by a satellite dome

Based on geochronological, petrological, stratigraphical, and sedimentological data, this paper describes the deposits left by the most powerful Holocene eruption of Chachimbiro compound volcano, in the northern part of Ecuador. The eruption, dated between 3640 and 3510 years BC, extruded a ～650-m-wide and ～225-m-high rhyodacite dome, located 6.3 km east of the central vent, that exploded and produced a large pyroclastic density current (PDC) directed to the southeast followed by a sub-Plinian eruptive column drifted by the wind to the west. The PDC deposit comprises two main layers. The lower layer (L1) is massive, typically coarse-grained and fines-depleted, with abundant dense juvenile fragments from the outgassed dome crust. The upper layer (L2) consists of stratified coarse ash and lapilli laminae, with juvenile clasts showing a wide density range (0.7–2.6 g cm^?3). The thickness of the whole deposit ranges from few decimeters on the hills to several meters in the valleys. Deposits extending across six valleys perpendicular to the flow direction allowed us to determine a minimum velocity of 120 m s^?1. These characteristics show striking similarities with deposits of high-energy turbulent stratified currents and in particular directed blasts. The explosion destroyed most of the dome built during the eruption. Subsequently, the sub-Plinian phase left a decimeter-thick accidental-fragment-rich pumice layer in the Chachimbiro highlands. Juvenile clasts, rhyodacitic in composition (SiO₂?=?68.3 wt%), represent the most differentiated magma of Chachimbiro volcano. Magma processes occurred at two different depths (～14.4 and 8.0 km). The hot (～936 °C) deep reservoir fed the central vent while the shallow reservoir (～858 °C) had an independent evolution, probably controlled by El Angel regional fault system. Such destructive eruptions, related to peripheral domes, are of critical importance for hazard assessment in large silicic volcanic complexes such as those forming the Frontal Volcanic Arc of Ecuador and Colombia.     

Investigating soil moisture sensitivity to precipitation and evapotranspiration errors using SiB2 model and ensemble Kalman filter

Accurate soil moisture information is useful in agricultural practice, weather forecasting, and various hydrological applications. Although land surface modeling provides a viable approach to simulating soil moisture, many factors such as errors in the precipitation can affect the accuracy of soil moisture simulations. This paper examined how precipitation rate and evapotranspiration rate affect the accuracy of soil moisture simulation using simple biosphere model with and without data assimilation through ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). For each of the two variables, seven levels of relative errors (?20, ?10, ?5, 0, 5, 10 and 20 %) were introduced independently, thus a total of 49 combined cases were investigated. Observations from Wudaogou Hydrology Experimental site in the Huaihe River basin, China, were used to drive and verify the simulations. Results indicate that when the error of precipitation rate is within 10 % of the observations, the resulting error in soil moisture simulations is less significant and manageable, thus the simulated precipitation can be used to drive hydrological models in poorly gauged catchments when observations are not available. When the error of evapotranspiration rate is within 20 % of the observations, which is partly caused by model structural and parameterization errors, its impact on soil moisture simulation is less significant and can be acceptable. This study also demonstrated that the EnKF can perform consistently well to improve soil moisture simulation with less sensitivity to precipitation errors.     

Assessment of the performance of hysteretic energy dissipation bracing systems

The advantages of passive supplemental dampers for performance enhancement of new and existing structures have been demonstrated extensively in the past. The big amount of experimental tests carried out all over the world on framed structures upgraded by energy dissipating bracing (EDB) systems based on hysteretic dampers (HDs), have shown their effectiveness in reducing seismic effects on buildings. The mechanical characteristics of the HDs in some cases may be different from those arising by the design procedure due to industrial tolerance or because of some damage suffered during previous earthquakes. In order to assess the robustness of this technique, in terms of capacity of seismic vibrations control even for significant changes in the mechanical characteristics of the EDB system respect to the design ones, in this paper experimental tests and parametric nonlinear time history analysis have been carried out changing the characteristics of the HD stiffness and strength. The experimental results refer to the shaking table tests performed at the Structural Laboratory of the University of Basilicata within a wide research program, named Joint Experimental Testing on Passive and semiActive Control Systems. The program has been completely funded by the Italian Department of Civil Protection within the activity of the Research Line 7 of the ReLUIS (Italian Network of University Laboratories of Earthquake Engineering) 2005–2008 project. A displacement-focused design procedure has been considered to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of the dissipating system, with the aim of limiting inter-storey drifts after frame yielding. From the experimental point of view, two design solutions have been tested for chevron braces equipped with HD, assuming the same stiffness but different values of both ductility demand and yield strength of the HDs. Moreover, parametric studies have been performed through numerical simulations. This paper provides an overview of the experimental set up and briefly summarizes the experimental outcomes and the comparison with the results of numerical nonlinear time history analysis. Moreover, the results of the parametric analysis for the assessment of the performances of the dissipating system in controlling structural response are presented.