Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.     

Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.     

A comparison of local and non-local turbulence closure methods for the case of a cold air outbreak

Numerical experiments have shown that large-eddy-simulation models (LES) are able to reproduce the common features of convective boundary layers (CBL) quite well. Models which cannot resolve the convective motions due to their grid structure (1D-models or models with coarse horizontal and/or vertical resolution) have to take into account the effects of large eddies within their subgrid diffusion terms. Turbulent fluxes are frequently parameterized through first-order-closure methods (K-theory). Recently, non-local closure schemes have also been developed. In this paper we compare 1D-and 2D-models using different local and non-local first-order closure methods. The analysis is carried out for the case of an idealized cold air outbreak (CAO). One of the non-local closures is based on the so-called transilient turbulence theory. The reference states are given by a bulk-model and a 2D-model which resolves the large eddies explicitly. A comparison of the results is presented for characteristic quantities such as evolution of boundary-layer height and surface heat flux as well as mean wind and temperature profiles. It is found that simple local first-order closure does not give good agreement with the reference models. The results of the transilient turbulence model shows that a non-local closure is able to parameterize the effects of the large eddies. Comparable results are produced by a local closure where eddy diffusivities are parameterized by dimensionless gradient-functions.     

Age constraints on the evolution of the Austroalpine basement to the south of the Tauern Window

The Austroalpine basement to the south of the Tauern Window once was part of the northern margin of Gondwana. It includes the “Altkristallin” and the phyllitic Thurntaler Complex. In the Altkristallin (AMU, MPU), suites of arc-related metamafic sequences occur together with calc-alkaline metagranite. SHRIMP U–Pb dating of zircon from calc-alkaline metagranite associated with an eclogitic amphibolite give an age of 470 ± 3 Ma interpreted as the age of protolith emplacement. In the Thurntaler Complex, metaporphyroids occur together with tholeiitic as well as alkaline within-plate basalt-type metabasite. The metaryholites of this association give a crystallization SHRIMP age of 477 ± 4 Ma, which suggests contemporaneity of arc-related and extensional settings in the Austroalpine basement units. The age data demonstrate widespread magmatic activity associated with the Early-Ordovician amalgamation at the end of the 550–470 Ma subduction–accretion–collision cycle. The Pb–Pb and U–Pb systematics of step-wise leached staurolite and kyanite from the peak-metamorphic assemblage of the Altkristallin indicate that (1) step-wise leaching of staurolite and kyanite yields the age of inclusions rather than the host; (2) zircon inclusions in staurolite suggest an Ordovician or older age for the precursor of the staurolite-schists; (3) the weighted average of the ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U data of the various leaching steps yields a Variscan age for the inclusions (ilmenite, biotite, and andesine). Since these inclusions are part of the metamorphic mineral assemblage, this age provides a minimum estimate for staurolite growth, i.e., metamorphism. Thus, the Pb–Pb and U–Pb systematics of staurolite provide evidence for a Variscan metamorphism of the Austroalpine basement, e.g., MPU, AMU and Thurntaler Complex, to the south of the Tauern Window.     

The Sierra Ballena Shear Zone in the southernmost Dom Feliciano Belt (Uruguay): evolution, kinematics, and deformation conditions

The Sierra Ballena Shear Zone (SBSZ) is part of a high-strain transcurrent system that divides the Neoproterozoic Dom Feliciano Belt of South America into two different domains. The basement on both sides of the SBSZ shows a deformation stage preceding that of the transcurrent deformation recognized as a high temperature mylonitic foliation associated with migmatization. Grain boundary migration and fluid-assisted grain boundary diffusion enhanced by partial melting were the main deformation mechanisms associated with this foliation. Age estimate of this episode is >658 Ma. The second stage corresponds to the start of transpressional deformation and the nucleation and development of the SBSZ. During this stage, pure shear dominates the deformation, and is characterized by the development of conjugate dextral and sinistral shear zones and the emplacement of syntectonic granites. This event dates to 658–600 Ma based on the age of these intrusions. The third stage was a second transpressional event at about 586 to <560 Ma that was associated with the emplacement of porphyry dikes and granites that show evidence of flattening. Deformation in the SBSZ took place, during the late stages, under regional low-grade conditions, as indicated by the metamorphic paragenesis in the supracrustals of the country rocks. Granitic mylonites show plastic deformation of quartz and brittle behavior of feldspar. A transition from magmatic to solid-state microstructures is also frequently observed in syntectonic granites. Mylonitic porphyries and quartz mylonites resulted from the deformation of alkaline porphyries and quartz veins emplaced in the shear zone. Quartz veins reflect the release of silica associated with the breakdown of feldspar to white mica during the evolution of the granitic mylonites to phyllonites, which resulted in shear zone weakening. Quartz microstructures characteristic of the transition between regime 2 and regime 3, grain boundary migration and incipient recrystallization in feldspar indicate deformation under lower amphibolite to upper greenschist conditions (550–400°C). On the other hand, the mylonitic porphyries display evidence of feldspar recrystallization suggesting magmatic or high-T solid-state deformation during cooling of the dikes.     

Die altquartäre Subrosionssenke von Fürstenhagen bei Hess. Lichtenau (Nördl. Hessen)

The basin of Fürstenhagen near Kassel—resulting from the leaching of evaporites—contains more than 100 m of sediments of early Pleistocene age, which are spared from erosion. The amount of erosion during the Pleistocene period and the altitude of the early Pleistocene surface can be estimated.     

Microcracking in calcite and dolomite marble: microstructural influences and effects on properties

Microstructure‐based finite-element analysis with a microcracking algorithm was used to simulate an actual degradation phenomenon of marble structures, i.e., microcracking. Both microcrack initiation and crack propagation were characterized, as were their dependence on lattice preferred orientation (LPO), grain shape preferred orientation (SPO), grain size, marble composition (calcite and dolomite) and grain‐boundary fracture toughness. Two LPOs were analyzed: a random orientation distribution function and an orientation distribution function with strong directional crystalline texture generated from a March–Dollase distribution. Three SPOs were considered: equiaxed grains; elongated grains and a mixture of equiaxed and elongated grains. Three different grain sizes were considered: fine grains of order 200 μm (only calcitic marble); medium size grains of order 1 mm (calcitic and dolomitic marbles); and large grains of order 2 mm (only dolomitic marble). The fracture surface energy for the grain boundaries, γ_ig, was chosen to be 20 and 40 % of the fracture surface energy of a grain, γ_xtal, so that both intergranular and transgranular fracture were possible. Studies were performed on these idealized marble microstructures to elucidate the range of microcracking responses. Simulations were performed for both heating and cooling by 50 °C in steps of 1 °C. Microcracking results were correlated with the thermoelastic responses, which are indicators related to degradation. The results indicate that certain combinations of LPO, SPO, grain size, grain‐boundary fracture toughness and marble composition have a significant influence on the thermal-elastic response of marble. Microstructure with the smallest grain size and the highest degree of SPO and LPO had less of a tendency to microcrack. Additionally, with increasing SPO and LPO microcracking becomes more spatially anisotropic. A significant observation for all microstructures was an asymmetry in microcracking upon heating and cooling: more microcracking was observed upon cooling than upon heating. Given an identical microstructure and crystallographic texture, calcite showed larger thermal stresses than dolomite, had an earlier onset of microcracking upon heating and cooling, and a greater microcracked area at a given temperature differential. Thermal expansion coefficients with and without microcracking were also determined.     

Role of tropical atlantic SST variability as a modulator of El Niño teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).