Is the astronomical forcing a reliable and unique pacemaker for climate? A conceptual model study

There is evidence that ice age cycles are paced by astronomical forcing, suggesting some kind of synchronisation phenomenon. Here, we identify the type of such synchronisation and explore systematically its uniqueness and robustness using a simple paleoclimate model akin to the van der Pol relaxation oscillator and dynamical system theory. As the insolation is quite a complex quasiperiodic signal involving different frequencies, the traditional concepts used to define synchronisation to periodic forcing are no longer applicable. Instead, we explore a different concept of generalised synchronisation in terms of (coexisting) synchronised solutions for the forced system, their basins of attraction and instabilities. We propose a clustering technique to compute the number of synchronised solutions, each of which corresponds to a different paleoclimate history. In this way, we uncover multistable synchronisation (reminiscent of phase- or frequency-locking to individual periodic components of astronomical forcing) at low forcing strength, and monostable or unique synchronisation at stronger forcing. In the multistable regime, different initial conditions may lead to different paleoclimate histories. To study their robustness, we analyse Lyapunov exponents that quantify the rate of convergence towards each synchronised solution (local stability), and basins of attraction that indicate critical levels of external perturbations (global stability). We find that even though synchronised solutions are stable on a long term, there exist short episodes of desynchronisation where nearby climate trajectories diverge temporarily (for about 50 kyr). As the attracting trajectory can sometimes lie close to the boundary of its basin of attraction, a small perturbation could quite easily make climate to jump between different histories, reducing the predictability. Our study brings new insight into paleoclimate dynamics and reveals a possibility for the climate system to wander throughout different climatic histories related to preferential synchronisation regimes on obliquity, precession or combinations of both, all over the history of the Pleistocene.     

Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

The new fifth-generation Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was driven by ERA reanalyses for the period 1984–2008 over the African continent following the CORDEX experimental protocol. Overall the model succeeds in reproducing the main features of the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and the West African Monsoon (WAM). Biases in surface temperature and precipitation are discussed in relation with some circulation defects noted in the simulation. In the African regions near the equator, the model successfully reproduces the double peak of rainfall due to the double passage of the tropical rainbelt, although it better simulates the magnitude and timing of the second peak of precipitation. CRCM5 captures the timing of the monsoon onset for the Sahel region but underestimates the magnitude of precipitation. The simulated diurnal cycle is quite well simulated for all of the regions, but is always somewhat in advance for the timing of rainfall peak. In boreal summer the CRCM5 simulation exhibits a weak cold bias over the Sahara and the maximum temperature is located too far south, resulting in a southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low. The region of maximum ascent in the deep meridional circulation of the Hadley cell is well located in the CRCM5 simulation, but it is somewhat too narrow. The core of the African Easterly Jet is of the right strength and almost at the right height, but it is displayed slightly southward, as a consequence of the southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low and the thermal wind relationship. These biases appear to be germane to the WAM rainfall band being narrower and not moving far enough northward, resulting in a dry bias in the Sahel.     

Experimental determination of coexisting iron–titanium oxides in the systems FeTiAlO, FeTiAlMgO, FeTiAlMnO, and FeTiAlMgMnO at 800 and 900°C, 1–4 kbar, and relatively high oxygen fugacity

A synthetic, low-melting rhyolite composition containing TiO₂ and iron oxide, with further separate additions of MgO, MnO, and MgO + MnO, was used in hydrothermal experiments to crystallize Ilm-Hem and Usp-Mt solid solutions at 800 and 900°C under redox conditions slightly below nickel–nickel oxide (NNO) to $\approx 3\,\log_{10} f_{{{\text{O}}_{2}}}A synthetic, low-melting rhyolite composition containing TiO₂ and iron oxide, with further separate additions of MgO, MnO, and MgO + MnO, was used in hydrothermal experiments to crystallize Ilm-Hem and Usp-Mt solid solutions at 800 and 900°C under redox conditions slightly below nickel–nickel oxide (NNO) to units above the NNO oxygen buffer. These experiments provide calibration of the FeTi-oxide thermometer + oxygen barometer at conditions of temperature and oxygen fugacity poorly covered by previous equilibrium experiments. Isotherms for our data in Roozeboom diagrams of projected %usp vs. %ilm show a change in slope at ≈ 60% ilm, consistent with the second-order transition from FeTi-ordered Ilm to FeTi-disordered Ilm-Hem. This feature of the system accounts for some, but not all, of the differences from earlier thermodynamic calibrations of the thermobarometer. In rhyolite containing 1.0 wt.% MgO, 0.8 wt.% MnO, or MgO + MnO, Usp-Mt crystallized with up to 14% of aluminate components, and Ilm-Hem crystallized with up to 13% geikielite component and 17% pyrophanite component. Relative to the FeTiAlO system, these components displace the ferrite components in Usp-Mt, and the hematite component in Ilm-Hem. As a result, projected contents of ulv?spinel and ilmenite are increased. These changes are attributed to increased non-ideality along joins from end-member hematite and magnetite to their respective Mg- and Mn-bearing titanate and aluminate end-members. The compositional shifts are most pronounced in Ilm-Hem in the range Ilm_50–80, a solvus region where the chemical potentials of the hematite and ilmenite components are nearly independent of composition. The solvus gap widens with addition of Mg and even further with Mn. The Bacon–Hirschmann correlation of Mg/Mn in Usp-Mt and coexisting Ilm-Hem is displaced toward increasing Mg/Mn in ilmenite with passage from ordered ilmenite to disordered hematite. Orthopyroxene and biotite crystallized in experiments with added MgO and MgO + MnO; their X _Fe varies with and T consistent with equilibria among ferrosilite, annite, and ferrite components, and the chemical potentials of SiO₂ and orthoclase in the liquid. Experimental equilibration rates increased in the order: Opx < Bt < Ilm-Hem < Usp-Mag.     

Internal and forced variability along a section between Greenland and Portugal in the CLIPPER Atlantic model

Numerical models are used to estimate the meridional overturning and transports along the paths of two hydrographic cruises, carried out in 1997 and 2002 from Greenland to Portugal. We have examined the influence of the different paths of the two cruises and found that it could explain 0.4 to 2 Sv of difference in overturning (the precise value is model-dependent). Models show a decrease in the overturning circulation between 1997 and 2002, with different amplitudes. The CLIPPER ATL6 model reproduces well the observed weakening of the overturning in density coordinates between the cruises; in the model, the change is due to the combination of interannual and high-frequency forcing and internal variability associated with eddies and meanders. Examination of the -coordinate overturning reveals model–data discrepancies: the vertical structure in the models does not change as much as the observed one. The East Greenland current variability is mainly wind-forced in the ATL6 model, while fluctuations due to eddies and instabilities explain a large part of the North Atlantic Current variability. The time-residual transport of dense water and heat due to eddy correlations between currents and properties is small across this section, which is normal to the direction of the main current.     

Effects of AO and Pacific SSTA on severe droughts in Luanhe River basin,China

Natural Hazards - In the (re)insurance industry, the risk from natural hazards such as earthquakes or floods is quantified by models for natural catastrophes, also called NatCat models. One...     

A Practical Approach for Collecting Large‐n Detrital Zircon U‐Pb Data sets by Quadrupole LA‐ICP‐MS

A measurement procedure for the rapid acquisition of U‐Pb dates for detrital zircons by quadrupole LA‐ICP‐MS was developed. The procedure achieves a threefold increase in measurement efficiency compared with the most commonly used methods. Utilising reduced background counting times and a shortened ablation period, a throughput of ~ 130 measurements/h can be achieved. The measurement procedure was characterised and validated using data from thirty‐nine sessions acquired over a twelve‐month period. Systematic measurement error in ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U dates for reference materials used for quality control with ages between 28.2 and 2672 Ma was < 1.5%. Average measurement uncertainty, including both random and systematic components, was 1–4% (2s). Interrogation of time‐resolved calculated dates and signal intensities for each measurement allows for the detection and elimination of portions of measurements exhibiting age heterogeneities, zoning, lead loss and contamination by common lead. The measurement procedure diminishes the need to acquire cathodoluminescence imagery for routine detrital zircon applications further increasing throughput and reducing cost. The utility of the measurement procedure is demonstrated by the measurement of samples previously characterised by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS.     

Accelerated sediment delivery to continental margins during post-orogenic rebound of mountain ranges

Changes in sediment flux to continental margins are commonly interpreted in terms of tectonic growth of topography or climatic change. Here, we show that variations in sediment yield from orogenic systems, previously considered as resulting from climate change, drainage reorganisation or mantle processes can be explained by intrinsic mechanisms of mountain belt/foreland basin systems naturally evolving during post-orogenic decay. Numerical modelling indicates an increase of sediment flux leaving the orogenic system synchronous with the cessation of deposition in the foreland basin and the transition from late syn- to post-orogenesis. Experiments highlight the importance of lithospheric flexure that causes the post-orogenic isostatic rebound of the foreland basin. Erosion of the rebounding foreland basin combined with continued sediment flux from the thrust wedge drives an acceleration in sediment outflux towards continental margins. Sediment budget records in natural settings such as the Northern Pyrenees or Western European Alps also indicate accelerated post-orogenic sediment delivery to the Bay of Biscay and Rhône Delta respectively. These intrinsic processes that determine sediment yield to continental margins must be accounted for prior to consideration of additional external tectonic or climatic controls.