铜街子电站水库诱发地震的判定及最大可能诱发地震震级的估计

对于水库围堰后猛然增加的地震活动，人们普遍关心两个问题，第一是这些地震的成因，第二是这些地震能对大坝安全性带来多大的影响。位于四川省乐山地区的铜街子电站在蓄水后地震活动骤然增高。本文通过对地震活动的分布范围、震源深度、震源机制解以及地震活动与库水水位变化之间的关系判定这些地震系铜街子电站蓄水后所诱发的地震。为了估计该水库所诱发地震的震级上限，本文通过定性预测方法和定量预测方法试图对诱震震级上限给出一个估计，但各手段所给出的结果却不完全一致，这说明目前的预测手段的不完善。在对各手段给出的结果进行综合分析之后，认为铜街子电站最大可能诱发地震震级上限在５．０级左右。当然，也可能以较小震级的震群型形式出现。     

潮汐韵律层的研究进展及其天文地质意义

潮汐沉积物记录着一系列的潮汐周期。本文简要介绍了几种主要的现代潮汐周期，在此基础上回顾了最近十余年来国外对周期性潮汐沉积物，特别是潮汐韵律层的研究进展，系统介绍了几种从古代沉积物中识别出来的潮汐周期，包括基本潮汐（半日潮、全日潮和混合潮），大－小潮周期以及一些长期周波动等。最后对潮汐韵律层在推测地史时期地－月系的演化历史中的意义作了评述。     

地震空间分维Dq及b值的临震变化特征及其非线性机制分析

对云南省几个不同地区的强震孕震阶段及临震时的地震空间分维Ｄｑ（ｑ＝０，１，２，）及ｂ值进行了计算和研究，发现虽然在孕震阶段各地区的Ｄｑ及ｂ值均有着共同的下降主趋势，但临震时不同区域的Ｄｑ及ｂ的变化形态却存在着差异，大地震可能发生在Ｄｑ及ｂ值均降至最低时，也可能发生在Ｄｑ及ｂ值下降后又回升之时，还可能发生在Ｄｑ回升而ｂ值仍保持最低时。本着重对Ｄｑ及ｂ值的临震变化特征及其个体差异从非线性的角度作了物     

The Geothermal Study of the Mid-Segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone and Its Neighboring Region

In this paper,25 new terrestrial heat flow values newly observed along the mid-segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone are listed.With these geothermal data and 37 other terrestrial heat flow values(previously published),we describe the distribution features of terrestrial heat flows in the area.In this research,the two-dimensional temperature structure from the surface to lithospheric bottom of the Huaibei-Sixian-Jinhu profile is inferred by using the finite-element method and the temperature and heat flow of sedimentary,granitic,and basaltic layers is calculated.     

Three-dimensional MHD simulation of interplanetary magnetic field changes at 1 AU as a consequence of simulated solar flares

A fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, MHD interplanetary global model (3D IGM) has been used, for the first time, to study the relationship between different forms of solar activity and transient variations of the north-south component, B_z, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at 1 AU. One form of solar activity, the flare, is simulated by using a pressure pulse at different locations near the solar surface and observing the simulated IMF evolution of B (=-B_z) at 1 AU. Results show that, for a given pressure pulse, the orientation of the corresponding transient variation of B_z has a strong relationship to the location of the pressure pulse and the initial conditions of the IMF. Two initial IMF conditions are considered: a unipolar Archimedean spiral with outward polarity and a flat heliospheric current sheet (HCS) with outward polarity in the northern hemisphere and which gradually reverses polarity in the solar equatorial plane to inward polarity in the southern heliospheric hemisphere. The wave guide effect of the HCS is also demonstrated.     

Generation and evolution of interplanetary slow shocks

It is well known that most MHD shocks observed within 1 AU are MHD fast shocks. Only a very limited number of MHD slow shocks are observed within 1 AU. In order to understand why there are only a few MHD slow shocks observed within 1 AU, we use a one-dimensional, time-dependent MHD code with an adaptive grid to study the generation and evolution of interplanetary slow shocks (ISS) in the solar wind. Results show that a negative, nearly square-wave perturbation will generate a pair of slow shocks (a forward and a reverse slow shock). In addition, the forward and the reverse slow shocks can pass through each other without destroying their characteristics, but the propagating speeds for both shocks are decreased. A positive, square-wave perturbation will generate both slow and fast shocks. When a forward slow shock (FSS) propagates behind a forward fast shock (FFS), the former experiences a decreasing Mach number. In addition, the FSS always disappears within a distance of 150R_⊙ (where R_⊙ is one solar radius) from the Sun when there is a forward fast shock (with Mach number \geq1.7) propagating in front of the FSS. In all tests that we have performed, we have not discovered that the FSS (or reverse slow shock) evolves into a FFS (or reverse fast shock). Thus, we do not confirm the FSS-FFS evolution as suggested by Whang (1987).     

Inversion of Q value structure beneath the Tibet Plateau

A total of 11 earthquakes with 15 Rayleigh wave paths, recorded at 11 broadband digital PASSCAL seismometers installed in the Tibet Plateau by the Sino-U.S. joint research group, were used to determine the phase velocity and attenuation coefficient of surface waves in periods of 10–130 s. The average shear wave velocity and quality factor {ie271-1} structures in the crust and upper mantle were obtained in this region. The result shows the average {ie271-2} is low and there exists a high attenuation ({ie271-3}=93–141) layer in the crust. The depth range of the low {ie271-4} value layer (16–42 km) is consistent with the range of low velocity layer (21–51 km) in the crust. Below 63 km in the lower crust, {ie271-5} decreases with depth from 114 to 34 at depth of 180 km. The low shear wave velocity and low value of {ie271-6} at the same depth range in the crust indicate that the rocks in the range is probably melted or partially melted. According to the shear wave velocity structure, the average thickness of the crust is about 71 km and a clear velocity discontiniuty appears at the depth of 51 km. The low-velocity zone (4. 26 km/s) at depth of 96–180 km may be corresponding to the asthenosphere. Contribution No. 96A0047, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

地震序列的有序度及多分形特征

为研究不同类型地震序列物理过程的差异，我们研究了１５１例国内外的地震序列主震后早期的地震有序度和多分形特征的差异。主要结果为：能量分配的不同是序列主震后早期的主要分类标志。地震序列的能量熵值可作为序列早期分类的定量指标．序列蠕变熵值的变化速率可作为后续强余震的预测依据之一．对于主震型序列，由于介质的均匀性相对较好，余震破裂可以充分扩展，子系统作用顺利，从而导致能量分配比较集中（Ｑｃ值较低），时间结构的多重分形Ｄｑ变化幅度较大。反之，对于震群序列，由于震源区存在多个障碍体，使得子系统的作用受到一定程度的阻碍，破裂不能顺利扩展，因此，可能会造成能量分配比例失调，表现为大事件增多，Ｑｃ值较高，余震过程相对拉长，时间多重分形Ｄｑ差值变小．由此可见，不同类型的地震序列在主震后早期能量分配的集中程度的差异以及时间多重分形跨度的变化，很可能反映了余震区破裂扩展的充分程度。     

首都圈年累积释放地震能量的拓扑预测

拓补预测实际上是ＧＭ（１，１）模型群的预测。将首都圈年累积释放地震能量的统计结果作为建模的基本数据，建立相应的拓扑预测模型，对２０００年以前首都圈年累积释放地震能量的发展趋势作出初步预测。     

Identification of Fei-Tsui arch dam from both ambient and seismic response data

This purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic characteristics of the Fei-Tsui arch dam using the seismic response data and the ambient vibration data. For the identification of dam properties from seismic response data, the multiple inputs from the abutment of the dam to represent the nonuniform excitations of seismic input motion are considered, and the ARX model is applied using the discrete-time linear filtering approach with least-squares approximation to identify the dynamic characteristics of the dam. The system modal dampings, natural frequencies and frequency response functions are identified. A comparison of the identified modal parameters is made among different seismic events. Post-earthquake safety evaluation of the dam can be made based on the identified model. Finally, the ambient vibration test of the dam is performed to identify the mode shapes along the dam crest.