Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events during 1951–2011 in Shandong,China and possible connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation

Analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes defined by eleven extreme precipitation indices in Shandong were conducted by utilizing the methods of linear regression, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Mann–Kendall test. The results revealed that statistically significant decreasing trends existed for almost all extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily intensity index. A periodicity of 10–15 years for precipitation extremes is detected by EEMD analysis. Greatest 5-day total rainfall (RX5day), very wet days (R95p) and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) experienced decreasing trends in the region stretching from the southeast coast to the west, while the spatial distribution of the decreasing trends for other indices was more complicated. Moreover, the frequency of occurrence in precipitation extremes at Changdao station, surrounded by the sea in the northeast region, increased in contrast to surrounding stations. This may suggest a possible effect from the local marine environment on extreme precipitation. In addition, the stations with statistically significant positive trends for CDD were mainly located in mid-west Shandong and along the southeast coast, where the extreme precipitation and total rainfall were, on the contrary, characterized by decreasing trends. These results indicate that drought or severe drought events have become more frequent in those regions. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes indicates that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height as well as decreasing strength of monsoonal flow in recent decades may have contributed to the variations in extreme precipitation in Shandong.     

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes associated with prominent ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes trends during 1958–2013

Three prominent features of ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes (THF) trends during 1958–2013 are identified based on the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data set. The associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes are further investigated based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. First, the THF are enhanced over the mid-latitude expansions of the subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs). An intensified oceanic heat transport, forced by stronger near-surface zonal wind, is likely to be the cause of such THF tendency. Second, the THF are reduced over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which is primarily caused by the decreasing near-surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), associated with a local coupled ocean-atmosphere cooling mode. Finally, the THF are reduced over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to the decreasing air-sea humidity and temperature differences as a result of the convergence of near-surface air and the divergence of ocean currents (upwelling).     

Semi-supervised least squares support vector machine algorithm: application to offshore oil reservoir

At the early stages of deep-water oil exploration and development, fewer and further apart wells are drilled than in onshore oilfields. Supervised least squares support vector machine algorithms are used to predict the reservoir parameters but the prediction accuracy is low. We combined the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm with semi-supervised learning and established a semi-supervised regression model, which we call the semi-supervised least squares support vector machine (SLSSVM) model. The iterative matrix inversion is also introduced to improve the training ability and training time of the model. We use the UCI data to test the generalization of a semi-supervised and a supervised LSSVM models. The test results suggest that the generalization performance of the LSSVM model greatly improves and with decreasing training samples the generalization performance is better. Moreover, for small-sample models, the SLSSVM method has higher precision than the semi-supervised K-nearest neighbor (SKNN) method. The new semisupervised LSSVM algorithm was used to predict the distribution of porosity and sandstone in the Jingzhou study area.     

Experiment study on RC frame retrofitted by the external structure

A new retrofitting method is proposed herein for reinforced concrete (RC) structures through attachment of an external structure. The external structure consists of a fiber concrete encased steel frame, connection slab and transverse beams. The external structure is connected to the existing structure through a connection slab and transverse beams. Pseudostatic experiments were carried out on one unretrofitted specimen and three retrofitted frame specimens. The characteristics, including failure mode, crack pattern, hysteresis loops behavior, relationship of strain and displacement of the concrete slab, are demonstrated. The results show that the load carrying capacity is obviously increased, and the extension length of the slab and the number of columns within the external frame are important influence factors on the working performance of the existing structure. In addition, the displacement difference between the existing structure and the outer structure was caused mainly by three factors: shear deformation of the slab, extraction of transverse beams, and drift of the conjunction part between the slab and the existing frame. Furthermore, the total deformation determined by the first two factors accounted for approximately 80% of the damage, therefore these factors should be carefully considered in engineering practice to enhance the effects of this new retrofitting method.     

村镇隔震砌体结构振动台试验方案设计研究

为使铅芯橡胶支座隔震技术应用于村镇砌体结构,将隔震层设置于地坪以上,本文给出了隔震构造的具体做法。选取典型村镇2层未设构造柱的砖砌体结构房屋为试验原型,按1:2缩尺,设计有隔震层和无隔震层的振动台对比试验。首先采用反应谱分析方法,对隔震和非隔震结构分别选取三条地震波,然后通过数值分析,研究隔震和非隔震结构在输入不同地震波时的地震反应规律,根据数值模拟的分析结果设计结构振动台试验中的传感器布置和加载方案。本文设计的砌体隔震振动台试验方案已试验成功,可为振动台试验设计和研究提供参考。     

Review of snow water equivalent microwave remote sensing

Accurate quantitative global scale snow water equivalent information is crucial for meteorology, hydrology, water cycle and global change studies, and is of great importance for snow melt-runoff forecast, water resources management and flood control. With land surface process model and snow process model, the snow water equivalent can be simulated with certain accuracy, with the forcing data as input. However, the snow water equivalent simulated using the snow process models has large uncertainties spatially and temporally, and it may be far from the needs of practical applications. Thus, the large scale snow water equivalent information is mainly from remote sensing. Beginning with the launch of Nimbus-7 satellite, the research on microwave snow water equivalent remote sensing has developed for more than 30 years, researchers have made progress in many aspects, including the electromagnetic scattering and emission modeling, ground and airborne experiments, and inversion algorithms for future global high resolution snow water equivalent remote sensing program. In this paper, the research and progress in the aspects of electromagnetic scattering/emission modeling over snow covered terrain and snow water equivalent inversion algorithm will be summarized.     

珠江三角洲中部晚更新世以来的有孔虫记录与古环境演化*

珠江三角洲中部钻孔PRD20和PRD17晚第四纪以来的沉积记录较为完整,尤其是晚更新世海侵记录良好。以其为研究对象,对两孔的有孔虫微体动物群记录和沉积特征进行了分析和对比,并结合前人研究成果,重建珠江三角洲晚更新世以来的古环境演变,并着重分析了晚更新世海侵事件。约44500 cal a BP以前,研究区为河流环境,发育河道砂砾沉积。约44500—21300 cal a BP,发生晚更新世海侵,形成溺谷型河口湾,两孔沉积物中有孔虫的垂直分布记录了水体条件发生的多次变化,可辨识出2次海侵海退次级旋回;其中PRD20孔中有孔虫以滨岸广盐型占绝对优势,PRD17孔中以滨岸广盐型为主、海相—半咸水型有孔虫占有一定比例,表明研究区位于溺谷湾中径流与潮流共同作用的区域,且PRD20孔受径流影响更大。约21300 cal a BP后,受末次冰盛期海退影响,研究区暴露于地表遭受风化剥蚀,风化产物在PRD20孔表现为1层褐红色砂砾,在PRD17孔表现为1层花斑黏土。约8000 cal a BP,海平面回升导致河水滞留形成沼泽环境,PRD20孔发育1层泥炭层。约8000—5500 cal a BP,PRD20孔发育受径流影响较大的河口湾湾头沉积,仅在全新世海侵最盛时含有少量有孔虫记录。约5500 cal a BP后,研究区发育三角洲平原沉积。受构造抬升影响,PRD17孔地势较高,于约4700 cal a BP才开始重新接受沉积,零星出现潮水搬运而来的有孔虫。     

基于波前构建法的时间域深度偏移——delta波包途径

作为一种基于射线的局部瞬态场,delta波包源自高斯波束,是高斯波束在时空域的对偶表示,具有高斯波束的全部优点和缺陷。基于delta波包叠加的时间域深度偏移,当射线穿过高速岩体时,受折射效应影响,密度降低,进而导致delta波包的分布密度降低,使成像质量变差,甚至无法成像。为了弥补这个缺陷,本文采用波前构建法计算射线路径。波前构建法能够以插入射线的方式保证均匀的射线分布,从而保证delta波包以均匀的分布密度覆盖整个成像靶区,进而提高成像质量。在具体实现上,采用链表结构替代以往使用的数组结构。Sigsbee 2A模型的数值试算表明,利用波前构建法可以改善高速体下方区域的成像质量,而利用链表存储波前信息要比利用数组至少节省9%的CPU耗时。     

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.