应用动态时变参数多层递阶法进行地震预报研究

本文研究了动态时变参数多层递阶法的原理及其在地震预报中应用的具体实施步骤。该方法充分考虑了系统的时变特性,使内符精度较高,在较小的震级误差范围内一步预报结果与实际情况相吻合。因此该方法有一定的应用价值,值得进一步推广。     

准噶尔盆地四棵树凹陷侏罗系烃源岩特征及油源分析

侏罗系是四棵树凹陷油气勘探的重要目的层,进一步查明侏罗系油气来源,落实生烃中心,对今后勘探选区选带十分重要。本文在对侏罗系烃源岩有机质丰度、类型、成熟度以及埋藏史和生烃潜力分析的基础上,开展了原油分类、油源对比及油气运移分析研究。结果表明,下侏罗统八道湾组主要发育湖相泥岩和河沼—三角洲相煤系两类烃源岩,有机质类型较好,丰度较高,主体处于低成熟—成熟阶段,局部演化程度高,生气潜力大;八道湾组具晚期快速埋藏生烃特点,四棵树凹陷主体以生油为主;生物标志化合物特征及其指纹对比发现,中侏罗统头屯河组含A、B两类原油,A类原油主要源自八道湾组中段湖相泥岩,生油母质以低等水生生物为主,B类原油的生油母质主要为高等植物,应主要来自八道湾组上、下段煤系地层;据三环萜烷/五环三萜烷和重排甾烷/规则甾烷反映出的运移效应推断,卡因迪克构造带以南至西湖构造之间存在八道湾组烃源岩的生油中心,是卡6井区和西湖1井头屯河组原油的主要供烃区,该区域是今后侏罗系勘探的有利区带。     

南海珠江口盆地白云凹陷现今地温场与新生代构造—热演化特征

位于南海北缘的珠江口盆地深水区作为我国海洋油气勘探的重点区域,具有良好的油气勘探前景。本文利用钻井地热测量数据分析了珠江口盆地深水区现今地温场及岩石圈热结构特征,通过古温标反演和拉张盆地模型正演相结合的方法定量揭示了白云凹陷新生代以来的热史,总结了不同地热地质条件对油气生成的影响。研究结果表明：珠江口盆地大地热流分布特征具有北低南高的特点,同时具有“热幔冷壳”的特征。珠江口盆地深水区始新世以来经历了两期拉张过程,第一期（47.8～33.9 Ma）拉张自始新世发生,拉张强度较大,凹陷中心基底热流快速上升至～82 mW/m²;第二期（23～13.8 Ma）拉张发生于中新世,此次拉张在白云凹陷南部更强烈,白云凹陷主体在 13.8 Ma达到最高古基底热流,此后进入热沉降阶段,基底热流值一直缓慢下降。磷灰石裂变径迹、磷灰石（U-Th）/He及锆石（U-Th）/He联合反演给出了最高古地温在13.8 Ma附近达到,后期温度基本稳定。     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

层序地层研究产生的地层学新观点、新概念和新方法——兼论建立新一代年代地层表

层序地层学在地层划分、对比、分类和级别体系等地层学根本理论问题上给地层学带来了新认识、新概念和新方法。全球层型剖面和点(GSSP)可建在层序界面的整合部位,从而将传统的自然界线(或不整合面)、层序界面和GSSP三者有机结合起来,使得年代地层界线成为可在野外识别和追索的界线。论证了层序地层是独立存在于岩石地层和年代地层之间的地层类别和包含这三个基本地层类别的新的三重地层分类方案。阐述用层序地层界线优化各类原有年代地层和岩石地层界线的原理和方法,探讨和阐述了新的地层学体系和建立新一代年代地层表的途径和方法。     

鄂西清江下游主要活动断层分段、分形与地震活动

在地质调查的基础上,初步厘定了清江下游主要活动断层的现今几何轨迹结构,并从几何形态、结构特性和现今活动性三方面对其进行自然段划分;进而利用分形分维分析,估算活动断层不同区段轨迹结构的分维值。计算结果表明：每一个断层段具有一个特征性的分维值,轨迹结构越复杂,分维值越高,现今活动性越强;其中,仙女山断层带中段分维值最高, Ｄ＝ １２５７,而松园坪断层北段最低, Ｄ＝ １０１８。结合地震活动分析发现：仙女山断层带是清江下游现今活动最强的活动断裂;仙女山断层带的中小地震活动,具有间歇式 分段振荡迁移的特性;时间上地震活动期为１～５ａ,相对平静期为１０ａ 左右;空间上地震活动从南段开始,振荡迁移到北段,然后又向中段迁移,目前地震活动似乎正在向中南段边界迁移;并且,中南段断裂轨迹结构比北段复杂,分维值也高,地震活动强度相对较大,因此,未来仙女山断层带可能发生的中强地震（ Ｍｓ＝ ５０ 级左右）将主要集中于中南段,而不是北段。     

我国浅成热液金矿的分类探讨

陆相浅成热液金矿是个大概念,是数类金矿的统称。目前对其的分类,不适应理论和应用研究的需要。本文主张以成矿地球动力学环境和矿床本质特征为准则,实施浅成热液金矿的分类。对类型的划分努力体现成因类型和工业类型相结合的原则,并充分反映我国的特点。在矿床类型具体命名时,突出成矿时的浅成深度。文中将我国浅成热液金矿分为浅成脉型、浅成斑岩型和浅成矽卡岩型等三大类八个亚类。陆相浅成热液金矿在我国有广阔的找矿前景,而且在地质产状和成矿作用等方面与国外的殊为不同,值得对其作深入的理论与应用研究。     

正确认识现代企业制度

从分析现代企业制度的含义出发,主要阐明：现有国有企业通过股份制改造并不等于建成了现代企业制度;现有股分制企业在运营中出现的问题不应该归罪于现代企业制度。并从理论和实践两方面进行了论证。     

Distribution of ionospheric O<Superscript>+</Superscript> ion in synchronous altitude region

Based on satellite observation data, using dynamics equation, the ionospheric O⁺ ion’s distribution in the synchronous altitude region for different geomagnetic activity indexK _p is studied by theoretical modeling and numerical analyzing, and semi-empirical models for the O⁺ ion’s density and flux versus longitude in the synchronous altitude region for differentK _p are given. The main results show that in the synchronous altitude region: (i) The O⁺ ion’s density and flux in day-side are larger than those in nightside. (ii) With longitude changing, the higher the geomagnetic activity indexK _p is, the higher the O⁺ ion’s density and flux, and their variation amplitude will be. The O⁺ ion’s density and flux whenK _{p ≥} 6 will be about ten times as great as that whenK _p = 0. (iii) WhenK _p = 0 orK _{p ≥} 6, the O⁺ ion’s density reaches maximum at longitudes 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail. WhenK _p = 3−5, the O⁺ ion’s density gets to maximum at longitude 0°, and minimum in the magnetotail. However, the O⁺ ion’s flux reaches maximum at longitude 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail for anyK _p value.     

Morphological response of tidal marshes,flats and channels of the Outer Yangtze River mouth to a major storm

Systematic morphological changes of the coastline of the outer Yangtze River mouth in response to storms versus calm weather were documented by daily surveys of tidal marshes and flats between April 1999 and May 2001 and by boat surveys offshore during this and earlier periods. The largest single event during 1999 to 2001 was Typhoon Paibaian, which eroded the unvegetated tidal flat and lower marsh and led to accretion on the middle-to-upper marsh and in the subtidal channel. The greatest erosion of 21 cm occurred at the border between the marsh and the unvegetated flat due to the landward retreat of the marsh edge during the storm. Strong waves on the flats increased suspended sediment concentration by 10–20 times. On the upper marsh, where the frequency of submergence by astronomical tides is only 3%, Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian and other large storms in the 1990s caused over 50 cm of accretion along the deep axis of the river mouth outlet channel. During calm weather, when hydrodynamic energy was dominated by tides, deposition was centered on the unvegetated flats and lower, marsh with little deposition on the high marsh and erosion in the subtidal channel. Depositional recovery of the tidal flat from typhoon-induced erosion took only several days, whereas recovery of the subtidal channel by erosion took several weeks. A conceptual model for the morphological responses of tidal marshes, flats, and subtidal channels to storms and calm weather is proposed such that sediment continually moves from regions of highest near-bed energy towards areas of lower energy.