中国人海经济系统环境适应性演化及预警

基于敏感性-稳定性-响应3维要素构建指标体系,运用熵值法和ARIMA-BP组合预测模型研究中国人海经济系统环境适应性的演化及预警。结果表明：① 2001~2016年中国人海经济系统环境适应性呈稳定上升态势,总体集中于中警状态,期间经历了“人海环境系统比较优势阶段→耦合协调阶段→人海经济系统比较优势阶段”的双螺旋适应过程,预计2017~2020年再次进入相互契合的轻警状态;② 16 a间中国人海经济系统环境适应性波动存在上升期短-衰退期长现象,预计未来4 a人海经济系统环境适应性在经济下行和生态约束背景下的速率不容乐观;③ 权衡人海经济系统和人海环境系统的关系,追求总体效益最大化,延长适应性周期波动中扩张期活动,差别化和灵活性的适应行为是未来主要排警对策。     

等效沙厚度研究进展

风、沉积物和地表覆盖是控制沙丘地貌的三大要素.沉积物尤其是沙源供应对沙丘地貌的影响仍有待深入研究.沙丘体积的研究促使了等效沙厚度(equivalent sand thickness,EST)概念的提出.EST研究经历了多个沙丘和亚沙丘尺度2个研究阶段.多个沙丘EST研究发现,EST与沙丘高度之间具有较好的一致性,其与方...     

Characteristics of water exchange in the Luzon Strait during September 2006

The Luzon Strait is the only deep channel that connects the South China Sea(SCS) with the Pacific.The transport through the Luzon Strait is an important process influencing the circulation,heat and water budgets of the SCS.Early observations have suggested that water enters the SCS in winter but water inflow or outflow in summer is quite controversial.On the basis of hydrographic measurements from CTD along 120° E in the Luzon Strait during the period from September 18 to 20 in 2006,the characteristics of t...     

Urban three-dimensional expansion and its driving forces —A case study of Shanghai, China

Urban expansion is a phenomenon of urban space increase, and an important measuring index of the process of urbanization. Taking Shanghai as an example, the changes of urban average height and built-up area were studied to represent city’s vertical and horizontal increases respectively, and statistical methods were used to analyze the driving forces of urban expansion. The research drew following conclusions: 1) The urban expansion process of Shanghai from 1985 to 2006 had a clear periodic feature, and could be divided into three stages: vertical expansion in dominance, coordinated vertical and horizontal expansion, and horizontal expansion in dominance. 2) The average height and quantity of buildings in core city were significantly bigger than those in suburbs, but the changing speed of the latter was faster. And 3) urbanization process was the major driving force for the city’s horizontal expansion, while industrial structure improvement was the key driving factor for the vertical expansion. Those two driving forces were simultaneously affected by city’s political factors.     

潍坊市耕地资源动态变化及驱动力分析

潍坊市是国家重要的农副产品生产基地。近几年来,随着经济的发展,耕地资源迅速退化和流失,使得人口与耕地的矛盾日渐突出。通过对相关数据的分析,揭示了潍坊市自改革开放以来耕地资源的变化趋势。运用定性和定量的方法对耕地数量变化的驱动因子进行了分析;并结合潍坊市耕地资源利用的具体情况,提出保护耕地的对策与建议。     

长江口外海域三维水动力模拟结果及与观测的比较

Base on ECOMSED model, a theree-dimensional hydrodynamic model is developed in the offshore area near the Changjing Estuary in the East China Sea. This model in driven by tide and wind,as well as inflow and outflowcurrents such as Kuroshio,Changjing runoff. The horizontal resolution is 1/20_°. There have 11 layers on the verticaldirection. The numerical results of 4 main constituents of tide(M²,S²,K¹,O¹)and currents are in good agreement with observation data. Compared with 20 gauge stations,the mean absolute erroe between the caluclated M² tidal amplitude and the observed oned is only 6.72cm; the mean absolute error of phased-lag is 5.23_°.For S²,the mean absolute errors of amplitude and phased-lag are 3.67cm and 7.21_°,respectively. The mean absolute errors of amplitude and phased-lag for K¹ are 3.25cm and 6.63_° For O¹,the mean absolute error of calculation and observation is relatively small, amwith observation data measured during Aug., 2006 in the East China Sea.The correlation coeffiients of current between simulation and observation are greater than 0.75 generally. The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model develiped by this paper can well describe the characters of elevation and current in the offshore near the Changjiang Estuary and can be used as hydrodynamic background to simulate the suspend sediment transport in this sea area.     

江苏省“十一五”省级基础测绘规划实施方案研究

在分析了江苏基础测绘状况的基础上,介绍了"十一五"基础测绘的原则、目标和任务,提出了组织实施方案和保障措施.     

Discussion of “Wave setup and setdown generated by obliquely incident waves” by T.-W. Hsu et al., Coastal Engineering, 53, 865–877, 2006

In the recent paper by Tai-Wen Hsu, John R.-C. Hsu, Wen-Kai Weng, Swun-Kwang Wang, and Shan-Hwei Ou (Coastal Engineering, 53, 865–877, 2006), the authors derived theoretical formulations for calculating the wave setup and setdown induced by obliquely incident waves on a beach. The derivation of an expression for setdown contains errors which would lead to an imbalance in longshore momentum flux outside the surfzone. We correct their derivation and give results in terms of the radiation stress concept in a general case including an oblique wave incidence. We also point out that the correct form of wave setdown is important to describe the zero-net force in the momentum balance outside the surfzone.     

加蓬G4-188区块钻井技术实践认识

加蓬G4-188区块是一个新的海外勘探区块,在钻井过程中遇到了井壁垮塌、气侵、井斜控制困难等诸多难题,影响了钻井施工的速度。针对这些难题,实施了解决G4-188区块钻井施工难点的各项技术措施,为G4-188区块后续钻井施工提供了有益的技术支持。     

正理庄高89-1区块CO2混相驱参数优化数值模拟研究

为了确保高89-1区块CO2混相驱项目的顺利实施,依据该区块的精细油藏描述成果,在优化适于CO2混相驱模型基础上,建立了符合油藏地质特点的三维地质模型。在此基础上对开发指标进行计算,对五个参数（井网、开发方式、压力水平、注入量和采油速度）进行优化,并提出了推荐方案,预测采收率可达23.10%,比弹性开采方式提高15.16%。