Probabilistic simulations of the impact of increasing leaf-level atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global land surface

Using a climate model with a sophisticated land surface scheme, simulations were conducted to explore the impact of increases in leaf-level carbon dioxide (CO₂) on evaporation, temperature and other land surface quantities. Fifty-one realizations were run, for each of four Januarys and four Julys for CO₂ concentrations at leaf-level of 280, 375, 500, 650, 840 and 1,000 ppmv. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration was held constant at 375 ppmv in all experiments. Statistically significant decreases in evaporation and increases in temperature occur in specific regions as leaf-level CO₂ is increased from 280 to 375 ppmv. These same areas expand geographically, and the magnitude of the changes increase as leaf-level CO₂ is increased further suggesting that changes are caused by the increase in leaf-level CO₂ and are not internal model variability. As leaf-level CO₂ is increased further, larger areas of the continental surface are affected by increasing amounts and a statistically significant change in precipitation is seen. The increase in leaf-level CO₂ from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv causes statistically significant changes in the evaporation over 12% of continental surfaces in July. This increases to 25% at 500 ppmv, 35% at 650 ppmv, 41% at 840 ppmv and 47% at 1,000 ppmv. This affects temperature and rainfall by similar amounts, generally in coincident regions. An analysis of these results over key regions shows that the probability density functions of the latent heat flux and temperature are affected non-uniformly. There is a shift in the latent heat flux probability density function to lower values, mainly through the reduction in the upper tail of the distribution. The temperature probability density function shifts to higher values, mainly through an increase in the upper tail of the distribution indicating that the impact is focussed on extremes. Given that there are a suite of well evaluated land surface models that include the biogeochemical effects of increasing CO₂ we suggest that the inclusion of such a model should be a recommended component of climate models used in future assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Regional climate and atmospheric circulation controls on the discharge of two British rivers, 1974–97

Summary ¶The dependence of the discharge (Q) of two contrasting UK rivers (Itchen, Ewe) on concurrent and lagged regional climate (RC) and atmospheric circulation (AC) variations was assessed over the period 1974–97. RC variables used were temperature and precipitation; the AC indicators used were 850hPa water vapour flux anomalies (VF) at five western European stations, and the Arctic (AOI) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAOI) indices. Correlation analyses were performed to assess Q-RC and Q-AC relationships before two sets of multiple linear regression models were developed to specify monthly Q values from RC and AC. Q-RC associations were generally stronger and more seasonally consistent than Q-AC relationships, with the flow of the Itchen (southern England) and Ewe (northern Scotland) being most sensitive to temperature (TEMP) and precipitation (PPT) respectively. In most months, discharge values of both rivers were positively associated to zonal and vector VF anomalies over the British Isles and northern France, but inversely related to vector VF over Iceland. The AOI and NAOI were significantly related to the Ewes flow only; relationships were strongest in the winter half-year. Monthly AC regression models explained 14.8–81.0% (25.0–90.9%) of the discharge variability of the Itchen (Ewe). Strong AC forcing of the Itchens discharge is confined to the winter (DJF), since the Itchens direct meteorological signal is attenuated by groundwater dynamics in other seasons. Analysis of anomalous flow periods (e.g. 1988–92 and 1995–7) revealed that discharge does not always respond in the same manner to a given RC/AC forcing, as the relationships themselves vary inter-annually as well as between the two rivers.     

Crocodile crimes: people versus wildlife and the politics of postcolonial conservation on Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe

This article is about the politics of conservation in postcolonial Southern Africa. It focuses on the process and consequences of redefining the Nile crocodile as an endangered species and explores the linked local and international, commercial and conservationist interests that allowed the animal to re-establish itself in state-protected waterways in colonial and postcolonial contexts. It investigates the effects of the animal’s successful re-accommodation by examining conflicts between crocodiles and the fishing communities sharing space on Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. Fishermen’s hostile representations of the animal emphasize competition for fish, harassment, fear, loss of assets and loss of life. Their fear of crocodiles is heightened by the animal’s entanglement in local social life, through its association with witchcraft. The article emphasizes the importance of considering both hegemonic and marginalized ideas about animals in the light of the material interactions, relations of power and historical contexts that shape them. Understanding the attitudes and circumstances of the local communities who bear the physical and economic costs of living with dangerous animals is important--it threatens the future of conservation programmes and reveals the potential for significant abuses to accompany the conservation of wildlife in postcolonial contexts.     

Mobilization and attenuation of heavy metals within a nickel mine tailings impoundment near Sudbury, Ontario, Canada

 The oxidation and the subsequent dissolution of sulfide minerals within the Copper Cliff tailings area have led to the release of heavy metals such as Fe, Ni, and Co to the tailings pore water. Dissolved concentrations in excess of 10 g/l Fe and 2.2 g/l Ni have been detected within the shallow pore water of the tailings, with increasing depth these concentrations decrease to or near analytical detection limits. Geochemical modelling of the pore-water chemistry suggests that pH-buffering reactions are occurring within the shallow oxidized zones, and that secondary phases are precipitating at or near the underlying hardpan and transition zones. Mineralogical study of the tailings confirmed the presence of goethite, jarosite, gypsum, native sulfur, and a vermiculite-type clay mineral. Goethite, jarosite, and native sulfur form alteration rims and pseudo-morphs of the sulfide minerals. Interstitial cements, composed of goethite, jarosite, and gypsum, locally bind the tailings particles, forming hardpan layers. Microprobe analyses of the goethite indicate that it contains up to 0.6 weight % Ni, suggesting that the goethite is a repository for Ni. Other sinks detected for heavy metals include jarosite and a vemiculite-type clay mineral which locally contains up to 1.6 weight % Ni. To estimate the mass and distribution of heavy metals associated with the secondary phases within the shallow tailings, a series of chemical extractions was completed. The experimental design permitted four fractions of the tailings to be evaluated independently. These four fractions consisted of a water-soluble, an acid-leachable, and a reducible fraction, as well as the whole-rock total. Twenty-five percent of the total mass of heavy metals was removed in the acid-leaching experiments, and 100% of the same components were removed in the reduction experiments. The data suggest that precipitation/coprecipitation reactions are providing an effective sink for most of the heavy metals released by sulfide mineral oxidation. In light of these results, potential decommissioning strategies should be evaluated with the recognition that changing the geochemical conditions may alter the stability of the secondary phases within the shallow tailings. Received: 9 April 1997 · Accepted: 21 July 1997     

CASPIR: A cryogenic array spectrometer imager for the MSSSO 2.3 m telescope

CASPIR is a near-infrared spectrometer/imager being built for the Mount Stromlo and Siding Spring Observatories' 2.3 m telescope. The instrument is based on a SBRC 256×256 InSb detector array and uses AR-coated Sapphire, MgO, CaF₂, and BaF₂ optics to produce two imaging focal plane scales with 0.5/pixel and 0.25/pixel. Spectral resolving powers of 500 will be achieved through a 1×128 slit with three grisms designed for the J, H, and K bands. IJ, JH, and HK cross-dispersed échelle grisms will achieve resolving powers of 1100 through a 1×15 slit. Coronograph and imaging polarimetry modes will also be available. The various observing configurations are selected via five remotely controlled wheels. The instrument design and system architecture are discussed, and preliminary detector performance figures reported.     

Downscaling over Vietnam using the stretched-grid CCAM: verification of the mean and interannual variability of rainfall

Rainfall over Vietnam is highly variable from north to south, due to the interaction of the monsoonal winds with the terrain. There is high rainfall from April to September, and little rainfall from October to March (except along the central Vietnam coast). In order to study the ability of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation stretched-grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to capture the climatic and interannual variability of rainfall, downscaled simulations at approximately 20 km horizontal resolution over the region were produced for the period 1979–2001. A scale-selective digital filter was used to force the winds, temperature and sea-level pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis for length scales greater than about 700 km. For wind and temperature, the forcing is applied for pressure-sigma levels above about 0.9. ERA-Interim sea surface temperatures were used over the oceans. The simulations were primarily validated against the gridded Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of the Water Resources rainfall dataset and station observations using standard statistical methods. It was found that CCAM reproduces well the amount and spatial variability of rainfall, with an area-averaged bias for the entire study domain of less than 1 mm day^?1; CCAM is also able to capture the rainfall pattern under different El Niño Southern Oscillation phases reasonably well for the dry season. For interannual variability, the simulation generally performed better for North and Central Vietnam than for South Vietnam, where rainfall variability was overestimated.     

Investigating the relationship of meteorological/climatological conditions and wildfires in Greece

During the last decades, wildfires have received growing attention because of their major impact on the natural and anthropogenic infrastructures worldwide. The present paper focuses on investigating the relationship between the meteorological/climatological conditions and wildfires in Greece on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. This is performed through the identification of the mean surface temperature, the sea-level pressure, and the absolute humidity anomalies during wildfires at 26 meteorological stations covering both maritime and land environments in the Greek domain and the subsequent construction of the derived GIS surface contour maps. A case study analysis through composite anomaly maps of temperature, pressure, precipitable water, 500-hPa geopotential height, specific humidity, and vector wind is also performed. It is concluded that positive surface temperature, absolute/specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential height, and vector wind anomalies are observed during wildfires while sea-level pressures are anomalously negative. Furthermore, western regions display lower magnitude anomalies compared to the more central and central-eastern regions during wildfires. The above meteorological/climatological findings in conjunction with medium range to seasonal climate forecasts could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy and thus benefit many aspects of the natural and built environment.