Progress in simplifying hydrologic model parameterization for broad applications to post-wildfire flooding and debris-flow hazards

Predicting the timing of overland flow in burned watersheds can help to estimate debris-flow timing and the location of debris-flow initiation. Numerical models can produce flow predictions, but they are limited by our knowledge of appropriate model parameters. Moreover, opportunities to test and calibrate model parameters in post-wildfire settings are limited by available data (measurements of debris-flow timing are rare). In this study, we use a unique data set of rainfall and flow-timing data to test the extent to which model parameters can be generalized from an individual watershed to other watersheds (0.01 km ² to >1km ²) within a burned area. Simulations suggest that a single, low, saturated hydraulic conductivity value can be used in post-wildfire landscapes with reasonable results. By contrast, we found that watershed-scale effective Manning roughness parameter values decrease as a power-law function of basin drainage area. Thus a Manning roughness parameter calibrated for a single basin within a burned area may not provide adequate results in a different watershed. However, when flow velocity is modeled independently for hillslopes and channels, and different roughness parameters are used for those morphometric units, there is no drainage-area dependence on the roughness parameters. Moreover, we found that it was possible to use field-measured grain size data to parameterize the roughness for both hillslopes and channels. Thus our results show that, employing this generalizable approach, it is possible to use field measurements to fully parameterize a model that produces peak flow timing to within a few minutes in storms lasting several hours. Further, we demonstrate how model simulations can be leveraged to identify areas within a watershed that are most susceptible to debris flows. This modeling approach could be used for decision making in hazardous burned areas and would be especially useful in ungaged basins. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Screening‐Level Sensitivity Analysis for the Design of Pump‐and‐Treat Systems

Pump‐and‐treat systems can prevent the migration of groundwater contaminants and candidate systems are typically evaluated with groundwater models. Such models should be rigorously assessed to determine predictive capabilities and numerous tools and techniques for model assessment are available. While various assessment methodologies (e.g., model calibration, uncertainty analysis, and Bayesian inference) are well‐established for groundwater modeling, this paper calls attention to an alternative assessment technique known as screening‐level sensitivity analysis (SLSA). SLSA can quickly quantify first‐order (i.e., main effects) measures of parameter influence in connection with various model outputs. Subsequent comparisons of parameter influence with respect to calibration vs. prediction outputs can suggest gaps in model structure and/or data. Thus, while SLSA has received little attention in the context of groundwater modeling and remedial system design, it can nonetheless serve as a useful and computationally efficient tool for preliminary model assessment. To illustrate the use of SLSA in the context of designing groundwater remediation systems, four SLSA techniques were applied to a hypothetical, yet realistic, pump‐and‐treat case study to determine the relative influence of six hydraulic conductivity parameters. Considered methods were: Taguchi design‐of‐experiments (TDOE); Monte Carlo statistical independence (MCSI) tests; average composite scaled sensitivities (ACSS); and elementary effects sensitivity analysis (EESA). In terms of performance, the various methods identified the same parameters as being the most influential for a given simulation output. Furthermore, results indicate that the background hydraulic conductivity is important for predicting system performance, but calibration outputs are insensitive to this parameter (K_BK). The observed insensitivity is attributed to a nonphysical specified‐head boundary condition used in the model formulation which effectively “staples” head values located within the conductivity zone. Thus, potential strategies for improving model predictive capabilities include additional data collection targeting the K_BK parameter and/or revision of model structure to reduce the influence of the specified head boundary.     

Exceptionally Long MTBE Plumes of the Past Have Greatly Diminished

Studies published in the late 1990s and early 2000s identified the presence of exceptionally long methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) plumes (more than 600 m or 2000 feet) in groundwater and have been cited in technical literature as characteristic of MTBE plumes. However, the scientific literature is incomplete in regard to the subsequent behavior and fate of these MTBE plumes over the past decade. To address this gap, this issue paper compiles recent groundwater monitoring records for nine exceptional plumes that were identified in prior studies. These nine sites exhibited maximum historical MTBE groundwater plume lengths ranging from 820 m (2700 feet) to 3200 m (10,500 feet) in length, exceeding the lengths of 99% of MTBE plumes, as characterized in multiple surveys at underground storage tank sites across the United States. Groundwater monitoring data compiled in our review demonstrate that these MTBE plumes have decreased in length over the past decade, with five of the nine plumes exhibiting decreases of 75% or more compared to their historical maximum lengths. MTBE concentrations within these plumes have decreased by 93% to 100%, with two of the nine sites showing significant decreases (98% and 99%) such that the regulatory authority has subsequently designated the site as requiring no further action.     

Granulite xenoliths from western Saudi Arabia: the lower crust of the late Precambrian Arbian-Nubian Shield

Mafic and intermediate granulite xenoliths, collected from Cenozoic alkali basalts, provide samples of the lower crust in western Saudi Arabia. The xenoliths are metaigneous two-pyroxene and garnet granulites. Mineral and whole rock compositions are inconsistent with origin from Red Sea rift-related basalts, and are compatible with origin from island arc calc-alkaline and low-potassium tholeiitic basalts. Most of the samples are either cumulates from mafic magmas or are restites remaining after partial melting of intermediate rocks and extraction of a felsic liquid. Initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are less than 0.7032, except for two samples at 0.7049. The Sm-Nd data yield T_DM model ages of 0.64 to 1.02 Ga, similar to typical Arabian-Nubian Shield upper continental crust. The isotopic data indicate that the granulites formed from mantle-derived magmas with little or no contamination by older continent crust. Calculated temperatures and pressures of last reequilibration of the xenoliths show that they are derived from the lower crust. Calculated depths of origin and calculated seismic velocities for the xenoliths are in excellent agreement with the crustal structure model of Gettings et al. (1986) based on geophysical data from western Saudi Arabia. Estimation of mean lower crustal composition, using the granulite xenoliths and the Gettings et al. (1986) crustal model, suggests a remarkably homogeneous mafic lower crust, and an andesite or basaltic andesite bulk composition for Pan-African juvenile continental crust.     

A catchment water balance assessment of an abrupt shift in evapotranspiration at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest,New Hampshire,USA

Small catchments have served as sentinels of forest ecosystem responses to changes in air quality and climate. The Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire has been tracking catchment water budgets and their controls – meteorology and vegetation – since 1956. Water budgets in four reference catchments indicated an approximately 30% increase in the evapotranspiration (ET) as estimated by the difference between precipitation (P) and runoff (RO) starting in 2010 and continuing through 2019. We analyzed the annual water budgets, cumulative deviations of the daily P, RO and water budget residual (WBR = P − RO), potential ET (PET) and indicators of subsurface storage to gain greater insight into this shift in the water budgets. The PET and the subsurface storage indicators suggest that this change in WBR was primarily due to increasing ET. While multiple long-term hydrological and micrometeorological data sets were used to detect and investigate this change in ET, additional measurements of groundwater storage and soil moisture would enable better estimation of ET within the catchment water balance. Increasing the breadth of long-term measurements across small gauged catchments allows them to serve as more effective sentinels of substantial hydrologic changes like the ET increase that we observed.     

GRS evidence and the possibility of paleooceans on Mars

The Gamma Ray Spectrometer (Mars Odyssey spacecraft) has revealed elemental distributions of potassium (K), thorium (Th), and iron (Fe) on Mars that require fractionation of K (and possibly Th and Fe) consistent with aqueous activity. This includes weathering, evolution of soils, and transport, sorting, and deposition, as well as with the location of first-order geomorphological demarcations identified as possible paleoocean boundaries. The element abundances occur in patterns consistent with weathering in situ and possible presence of relict or exhumed paleosols, deposition of weathered materials (salts and clastic minerals), and weathering/transport under neutral to acidic brines. The abundances are explained by hydrogeology consistent with the possibly overlapping alternatives of paleooceans and/or heterogeneous rock compositions from diverse provenances (e.g., differing igneous compositions).     

An improvement to the volcano-scan algorithm for atmospheric correction of CRISM and OMEGA spectral data

The observations of Mars by the CRISM and OMEGA hyperspectral imaging spectrometers require correction for photometric, atmospheric and thermal effects prior to the interpretation of possible mineralogical features in the spectra. Here, we report on a simple, yet non-trivial, adaptation to the commonly-used volcano-scan correction technique for atmospheric CO₂, which allows for the improved detection of minerals with intrinsic absorption bands at wavelengths between 1.9 and 2.1 μm. This volcano-scan technique removes the absorption bands of CO₂ by ensuring that the Lambert albedo is the same at two wavelengths: 1.890 and 2.011 μm, with the first wavelength outside the CO₂ gas bands and the second wavelength deep inside the CO₂ gas bands. Our adaptation to the volcano-scan technique moves the first wavelength from 1.890 μm to be instead within the gas bands at 1.980 μm, and for CRISM data, our adaptation shifts the second wavelength slightly, to 2.007 μm. We also report on our efforts to account for a slight ∼0.001 μm shift in wavelengths due to thermal effects in the CRISM instrument.     

Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, USA

Climate change is projected to result, on average, in earlier snowmelt and reduced summer flows in the Pacific Northwest, patterns not well represented in historical observations used in water planning. We evaluate the sensitivities of water supply systems in the Puget Sound basin cities of Everett, Seattle, and Tacoma to historical and projected future streamflow variability and water demands. We simulate streamflow for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s using the distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM), driven by downscaled ensembles of climate simulations archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. We use these streamflow predictions as inputs to reservoir system models for the three water supply systems. Over the next century, under average conditions all systems are projected to experience declines and eventual disappearance of the springtime snowmelt peak. How these shifts affect management depends on physical characteristics, operating objectives, and the adaptive capacity of each system. Without adaptations, average seasonal drawdown of reservoir storage is projected to increase in all three systems throughout the 21st century. Reliability of all systems in the absence of demand increases is robust through the 2020s however, and remains above 98% for Seattle and Everett in the 2040s and 2080s. With demand increases, however, reliability of the systems in their current configurations and with current operating policies progressively declines through the century.     

A novel ATR‐FTIR technique for identifying colloid composition in natural waters

Although understanding colloid composition has been frequently cited as essential to predicting contaminant transport in natural waters, most current methods to collect and identify colloid composition chemically alter the colloids prior to analysis and fail to identify colloid mineralogy and organic components. This paper presents a new, low‐cost method employing attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR‐FTIR) to identify colloids including organic material in concentrated suspensions. The concentration method employing tangential ultrafiltration at a steady temperature prevents redistribution of dissolved phase and suspended sediments into the colloidal fraction through post‐sampling reactions. ATR‐FTIR allows for direct analysis of concentrated suspensions rather than requiring drying that may alter composition in the colloidal phase, for example, by precipitating carbonates in samples from karst waters. The ability of this technique to monitor variation in colloidal composition is demonstrated through the examination of colloids under two different flow conditions in a karst aquifer and the West Branch of the Susquehanna River in Central Pennsylvania. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.