Rincón de la Vieja volcano, Guanacaste province, Costa Rica: geology of the southwestern flank and hazards implications

Acid rain and ongoing eruptive activity at Rincón de la Vieja volcano in northwestern Costa Rica have created a triangular, deeply eroded “dead zone” west-southwest of the Active Crater. The barren, steep-walled canyons in this area expose one of the best internal stratigraphic profiles of any active or dormant volcano in Costa Rica. Geologic mapping along the southwestern flank of the volcano reveals over 300 m of prehistoric volcanic stratigraphy, dominated by tephra deposits and two-pyroxene andesite lavas. Dense tropical forests and poor access preclude mapping elsewhere on the volcano. In the “dead zone” four stratigraphic groups are distinguished by their relative proportions of lava and tephra. In general, early volcanism was dominated by voluminous lava emissions, with explosive plinian eruptions becoming increasingly more dominant with time. Numerous phreatic eruptions have occurred in historic times, all emanating from the Active Crater. The stratigraphic sequence is capped by the Río Blanco tephra deposit, erupted at approximately 3500 yr B.P. Approximately 0.25 km³ (0.1 km³ DRE) of tephra was deposited in a highly asymmetrical dispersal pattern west-southwest of the source vent, indicating strong prevailing winds from the east and east-northeast at the time of the eruption. Grain-size studies of the deposit reveal that the eruption was subplinian, attaining an estimated column height of 16 km. A qualitative hazards assessment at Rincón de la Vieja indicates that future eruptions are likely to be explosive in style, with the zone of greatest hazard extending several kilometers north from the Active Crater.     

How does landscape structure influence catchment transit time across different geomorphic provinces?

Despite an increasing number of empirical investigations of catchment transit times (TTs), virtually all are based on individual catchments and there are few attempts to synthesize understanding across different geographical regions. Uniquely, this paper examines data from 55 catchments in five geomorphic provinces in northern temperate regions (Scotland, United States of America and Sweden). The objective is to understand how the role of catchment topography as a control on the TTs differs in contrasting geographical settings. Catchment inverse transit time proxies (ITTPs) were inferred by a simple metric of isotopic tracer damping, using the ratio of standard deviation of δ¹⁸O in streamwater to the standard deviation of δ¹⁸O in precipitation. Quantitative landscape analysis was undertaken to characterize the catchments according to hydrologically relevant topographic indices that could be readily determined from a digital terrain model (DTM). The nature of topographic controls on transit times varied markedly in different geomorphic regions. In steeper montane regions, there are stronger gravitational influences on hydraulic gradients and TTs tend to be lower in the steepest catchments. In provinces where terrain is more subdued, direct topographic control weakened; in particular, where flatter areas with less permeable soils give rise to overland flow and lower TTs. The steeper slopes within this flatter terrain appear to have a greater coverage of freely draining soils, which increase sub‐surface flow, therefore increasing TTs. Quantitative landscape analysis proved a useful tool for inter‐catchment comparison. However, the critical influence of sub‐surface permeability and connectivity may limit the transferability of predictive tools of hydrological function based on topographic parameters alone. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA

Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s^?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s^?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change.     

Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States

A February 2012 survey of almost 5,000 farmers across a region of the U.S. that produces more than half of the nation’s corn and soybean revealed that 66 % of farmers believed climate change is occurring (8 % mostly anthropogenic, 33 % equally human and natural, 25 % mostly natural), while 31 % were uncertain and 3.5 % did not believe that climate change is occurring. Results of initial analyses indicate that farmers’ beliefs about climate change and its causes vary considerably, and the relationships between those beliefs, concern about the potential impacts of climate change, and attitudes toward adaptive and mitigative action differ in systematic ways. Farmers who believed that climate change is occurring and attributable to human activity were significantly more likely to express concern about impacts and support adaptive and mitigative action. On the other hand, farmers who attributed climate change to natural causes, were uncertain about whether it is occurring, or did not believe that it is occurring were less concerned, less supportive of adaptation, and much less likely to support government and individual mitigative action. Results suggest that outreach with farmers should account for these covariances in belief, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation.