Productivity response of climax temperate forests to elevated temperature and carbon dioxide: a north american comparison between two global models

We assess the appropriateness of using regression- and process-based approaches for predicting biogeochemical responses of ecosystems to global change. We applied a regression-based model, the Osnabruck Model (OBM), and a process-based model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to the historical range of temperate forests in North America in a factorial experiment with three levels of temperature (+0 °C, +2 °C, and +5 °C) and two levels of CO₂ (350 ppmv and 700 ppmv) at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude. For contemporary climate (+0 °C, 350 ppmv), OBM and TEM estimate the total net primary productivity (NPP) for temperate forests in North America to be 2.250 and 2.602 × 10¹⁵ g C ? yr^?1, respectively. Although the continental predictions for contemporary climate are similar, the responses of NPP to altered climates qualitatively differ; at +0 °C and 700 ppmv CO₂, OBM and TEM predict median increases in NPP of 12.5% and 2.5%, respectively. The response of NPP to elevated temperature agrees most between the models in northern areas of moist temperate forest, but disagrees in southern areas and in regions of dry temperate forest. In all regions, the response to CO₂ is qualitatively different between the models. These differences occur, in part, because TEM includes known feedbacks between temperature and ecosystem processes that affect N availability, photosynthesis, respiration, and soil moisture. Also, it may not be appropriate to extrapolate regression-based models for climatic conditions that are not now experienced by ecosystems. The results of this study suggest that the process-based approach is able to progress beyond the limitations of the regression-based approach for predicting biogeochemical responses to global change.     

Prehistoric dyke trends on Mount Etna; implications for magma transport and storage

The distributions and alignments of over 200 prehistoric dykes exposed in the walls of the Valle del Bove caldera on Mount Etna have been plotted, and samples collected from some 10% of those occurring in the southern wall. Important tectonic trends are reflected by the dykes, along which magma movement was facilitated prior to the formation of the caldera. Close directional relations between the dyke trends and the orientations of historic fissures on the volcano, point to the existence of a plexus of interconnecting subsurface fissures immediately to the south-east of the summit. A model is envisaged within which magma enters this «clearing house» from depth, and is distributed via fissures to other parts of the volcano including the summit region. Here, the interaction of fissures with the conduits of the summit craters is put forward as a mechanism to explain the behaviour of recent activity.     

Constraints on paleolake levels,spillways and glacial lake history,north-central Ontario,Canada

The recognition of ice-marginal deltas constructed during the formation of the Nakina II moraine and a previously unrecognized spillway, in the vicinity of Longlac, northern Ontario, indicates that existing concepts of ancestral lake level history and drainage systems in the Lake Superior–Lake Nipigon region is inadequate. Based on isostatically corrected digital elevation maps, ice-marginal deltas of the Nakina II moraine probably formed at the level of glacial Lake Minong, most likely Minong III, and not glacial Lake Nakina as has been commonly suggested. In addition, the presence of a spillway near Longlac indicates that lake water drained southward through the Mullet Outlet–Pic River system immediately following ice-marginal retreat from the Nakina II moraine and not eastward as previously proposed. Architectural-element analysis of exposures within the spillway indicates hyperconcentrated outbursts of meltwater produced thick channel-fill elements during flood conditions with peak-velocities exceeding 3 m/s. Subsequent retreat of ice from the Pic River valley to the east, may have allowed waters of Lake Agassiz, Lake Barlow–Ojibway, or both, to drain into post-Minong lake levels in the Lake Superior basin. These findings place major constraints on previously proposed concepts of northeastern or eastern outlets of Lake Agassiz.     

Development of a numerical groundwater flow model using SRTM elevations

Remotely-sensed elevation data are potentially useful for constructing regional scale groundwater models, particularly in regions where ground-based data are poor or sparse. Surface-water elevations measured by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) were used to develop a regional-groundwater flow model by assuming that frozen surface waters reflect local hydraulic head (or groundwater potential). Drainage lakes (fed primarily by surface water) are designated as boundary conditions and seepage lakes and isolated wetlands (fed primarily by groundwater) are used as observation points to calibrate a numerical flow model of the 900 km² study area in the Northern Highland Lakes Region of Wisconsin, USA. Elevation data were utilized in a geographic information system (GIS) based groundwater-modeling package that employs the analytic element method (AEM). Calibration statistics indicate that lakes and wetlands had similar influence on the parameter estimation, suggesting that wetlands might be used as observations where open water elevations are unreliable or not available. Open water elevations are often difficult to resolve in radar interferometry because unfrozen water does not return off-nadir radar signals.     

Incorporating nonlinear isotherms into robust multilayer sorptive barrier design

Sorptive barrier technologies have emerged as useful tools for addressing a wide range of remediation problems. When simulating barrier performance, numerous isotherm expressions are available for relating aqueous and sorbed concentrations. However, isotherm selection is non-trivial because alternative expressions may yield comparable fits to experimental data. Additionally, concentration data collected for parameter fitting is often outside the range of concentrations relevant to simulating barrier performance. This incompatibility necessitates extrapolation of isotherm behavior during simulation–optimization. Consequently, equally plausible isotherms may predict significantly different barrier performance.Numerical experiments involving organic contaminants were performed to examine the influence of isotherm selection and extrapolation on optimal barrier design. Ten isotherms were calibrated to existing experimental data and evaluated using information-theoretic selection criteria. When incorporated into simulation–optimization, extrapolation effects were clearly evident and optimal designs varied according to the chosen isotherm. To ensure robust barrier design in the presence of such variability, a simple methodology is proposed that utilizes a piecewise-minimum isotherm concept. By favoring plausible isotherms that predict the least amount of sorption, the methodology encourages conservative barrier design while respecting available data.     

Calibration of complex subsurface reaction models using a surrogate-model approach

Automatic calibration of complex subsurface reaction models involves numerous difficulties, including the existence of multiple plausible models, parameter non-uniqueness, and excessive computational burden. To overcome these difficulties, this study investigated a novel procedure for performing simultaneous calibration of multiple models (SCMM). By combining a hybrid global-plus-polishing search heuristic with a biased-but-random adaptive model evaluation step, the new SCMM method calibrates multiple models via efficient exploration of the multi-model calibration space. Central algorithm components are an adaptive assignment of model preference weights, mapping functions relating the uncertain parameters of the alternative models, and a shuffling step that efficiently exploits pseudo-optimal configurations of the alternative models. The SCMM approach was applied to two nitrate contamination problems involving batch reactions and one-dimensional reactive transport. For the chosen problems, the new method produced improved model fits (i.e. up to 35% reduction in objective function) at significantly reduced computational expense (i.e. 40–90% reduction in model evaluations), relative to previously established benchmarks. Although the method was effective for the test cases, SCMM relies on a relatively ad-hoc approach to assigning intermediate preference weights and parameter mapping functions. Despite these limitations, the results of the numerical experiments are empirically promising and the reasoning and structure of the approach provide a strong foundation for further development.     

Island Edifice Failures and Associated Tsunami Hazards

—Volcanic ocean islands are prone to structural failure of the edifice that result in landslides that can generate destructive tsunamis. These island landslides range enormously in size, varying from small rock falls to giant sector failures involving tens of cubic kilometers of debris. A survey of literature has allowed us to identify twenty-three processes that contribute to edifice collapse. These have been divided into endogenetic and exogenetic sources of edifice failure. Endogenetic sources of instability and failure include unstable foundations, volcanic intrusions, thermal alteration, edifice pore pressures, unbuttressed structures, and buried faults. Exogenetic sources of instability and failure include collapse of subaerial or submarine deposits, endo-upwelling, karst megaporosity, fractures, oversteepening, overloading, sea-level change, marine erosion, weathering including hurricanes, glacial response, volcanic activity, regional uplift or subsidence, tectonic seismicity and anthropogenic agents. While the endogenetic sources dominate during periods of active volcanism and cone building, the exogenetic sources may cause failure at any time. Tsunamis, both small and large, are associated with these edifice failures.     

An unusual occurrence of coesite at the Lonar crater,India

Coesite has been identified within ejected blocks of shocked basalt at Lonar crater, India. This is the first report of coesite from the Lonar crater. Coesite occurs within SiO₂ glass as distinct ~30 μm spherical aggregates of “granular coesite” identifiable both with optical petrography and with micro‐Raman spectroscopy. The coesite+glass occurs only within former silica amygdules, which is also the first report of high‐pressure polymorphs forming from a shocked secondary mineral. Detailed petrography and NMR spectroscopy suggest that the coesite crystallized directly from a localized SiO₂ melt, as the result of complex interactions between the shock wave and these vesicle fillings.     

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.     

Comparison of cloud-top height retrievals from ground-based 35 GHz MMCR and GMS-5 satellite observations at ARM TWP Manus site

Retrievals of cloud-top heights from the ARM 35 GHz Millimeter Wave Cloud Radar (MMCR) located on Manus Island are compared to those from the GMS-5 satellite as a means to evaluate the accuracy of both MMCR and GMS-5 retrievals, as well as to ascertain their limitations. Comparisons are carried out for retrievals of both single-layer and multilayer clouds as seen by radar, but only for satellite-detected clouds with 100% amount within a 0.3×0.3° domain centered at the ARM site of one cloud type (i.e., low, middle, or high). Mean differences, with 95% confidence limits, between radar- and satellite-retrieved cloud-top heights (i.e., radar-retrieved cloud-top heights−satellite-retrieved cloud-top heights) are 0.3±0.3 km for single-layer clouds and −0.7±0.3 km for multilayer clouds. The study reveals that for thick clouds (i.e., cloud base ≤1 km and cloud thickness ≥10 km), which are representative of convective towers with no/light precipitation as well as thick anvil clouds, retrievals from the MMCR agree well with those from satellite with mean differences of 0.0±0.4 and −0.2±0.3 km for single-layer and multilayer clouds, respectively. For clouds of lesser thickness, mean cloud-top heights derived from satellite are lower than those derived from radar by as much as 2.0 km. It is also shown that for convective clouds with heavy precipitation, MMCR retrievals underestimate the cloud-top heights significantly.