Identification and Quantification of Base Flow Using Carbon Isotopes

Six surface water samples from locations along Otter Creek in Southeastern Montana and a groundwater sample from a nearby monitoring well completed in the Knobloch coal were analyzed for stable carbon isotope ratios. Along the length of its perennial reach, between the towns of Otter and Ashland, Otter Creek crosses several coal outcrops, including the Knobloch coal zone. The carbon isotope ratio of the creek becomes progressively more similar to that of the Knobloch coal aquifer groundwater in samples collected downgradient from the town of Otter. The isotope ratio of the stream changes from ?10.5 to ?8.9‰ reflecting the influence of the coal‐aquifer base flow contribution, as represented by Knobloch coal groundwater, which has a carbon isotope value of +3.9‰. The dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations of the groundwater and surface water are similar (～100 mg/L), which allowed the use of the simplified, first‐order, two‐end‐member mixing equation. Using carbon isotope ratios, calculations of the fraction of water contributed by coal aquifers indicate that approximately 11% of the surface water in Otter Creek at its mouth near Ashland was supplied by groundwater from the coal aquifers that crop out between Otter and Ashland. This study was conducted in December, when Otter Creek is at low flow. At times of higher surface flow, the contribution from groundwater base flow will be correspondingly smaller. This study illustrates that carbon isotopes can be an effective, low‐cost tool in base flow studies.     

Uncertainty-based multi-criteria calibration of rainfall-runoff models: a comparative study

This study compares formal Bayesian inference to the informal generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach for uncertainty-based calibration of rainfall-runoff models in a multi-criteria context. Bayesian inference is accomplished through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based on an auto-regressive multi-criteria likelihood formulation. Non-converged MCMC sampling is also considered as an alternative method. These methods are compared along multiple comparative measures calculated over the calibration and validation periods of two case studies. Results demonstrate that there can be considerable differences in hydrograph prediction intervals generated by formal and informal strategies for uncertainty-based multi-criteria calibration. Also, the formal approach generates definitely preferable validation period results compared to GLUE (i.e., tighter prediction intervals that show higher reliability) considering identical computational budgets. Moreover, non-converged MCMC (based on the standard Gelman–Rubin metric) performance is reasonably consistent with those given by a formal and fully-converged Bayesian approach even though fully-converged results requires significantly larger number of samples (model evaluations) for the two case studies. Therefore, research to define alternative and more practical convergence criteria for MCMC applications to computationally intensive hydrologic models may be warranted.     

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.     

The economics of mining seabed manganese nodules: A case study of the Indian Ocean nodule field

Abstract

Because of ever-growing demand for strategic metals, the focus of the international community has fallen on deep sea manganese nodules occurring at a water depth of more than 4500?m. We present an economic appraisal and strategy for mining of nodules from the Indian Ocean Nodule Field- one of the four economically potential areas in the world oceans. In contrast to the prevailing perception of non-viability of nodule mining, our analysis indicates a fair degree of economic feasibility and commercial sustainability to mine the deep-sea manganese nodules.     

Lunar remnant magnetic field mapping from orbital observations of mirrored electrons

Areas of lunar surface magnetic field are observed to ‘mirror’ low energy electrons present in the normal lunar space environment. The ambient electrons provide, in effect, a probe along the ambient magnetic field lines down to the lunar surface for remote sensing of the presence of surface fields. This probe, unlike direct measurement by the magnetometer, does not require low altitude or a very stable (magnetotail) ambient field to provide a mapping of regions of occurrence of such fields. Use of the on-board vector magnetometer measurements of the ambient magnetic field orientation allows accurate projection of such mapping onto the lunar surface. Preliminary maps of the lunar surface magnetic areas underlying the orbit of the ‘Particles and Fields Satellite deployed from Apollo-16’ have been generated, obtaining 40% coverage from partial data to demonstrate feasibility of the technique. As well as providing independent verification of areas such as Van de Graaff already discovered in the magnetometer data, these maps reveal many previously unreported areas of surface magnetism. The method is sensitive to fields of less than 0.1γ at the surface. Application to the full body of available PFS-1 & 2 electron data is expected to provide complete mapping of the lunar surface for areas of magnetization up to latitudes of 35–40 deg. The surface field regions observed are generally due to sources smaller than 10–50 km in size, although many individual regions are often so close together as to give much larger regions of effectively continuous mirroring. Absence of consistent mirroring by any global field places an upper limit on the size of any net lunar dipole moment of less than 10¹⁰ γ km³. Much additional information regarding the magnetic regions can be obtained by correlated analysis of both the electron return and vector magnetometer measurements at orbital altitude, the two techniques providing each other with directly complimentary measurements at the satellite and along the ambient field lines to the surface.     

On the physics of a long decay X-ray event

A long decay X-ray event (LDE) which appeared as an expanding loop system on the solar limb on 13–14 August 1973 was well observed temporally (with Skylab ATM S056 and S054 X-ray telescopes) and spectrally (with S082A XUV spectroheliograph). We summarize and supplement the extensive discussion in the literature. In addition, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic study is undertaken to investigate both increasing and decreasing phases of the event. Results indicate that the inferred temperature gradients along the loops during the heating phase are consistent with unrestricted dynamic and conductive flows along magnetic field lines. Furthermore, we conclude that it cannot be unequivocally stated that enhanced emission at the tops of loops is due to pressure gradients along the field lines. Finally, the large emission measure variations in the 10⁵–10⁶ K plasma during the event's decline may be due simply to the temperature dependence of radiative decay within a multi-loop configuration.Presently a NRC Associate at NASA/MSFC, Space Sciences Laboratory, MSFC, Ala. 35812, U.S.A.Presently at NASA/MSFC, Space Sciences Laboratory, MSFC, Ala. 35812, U.S.A.     

Reference Minerals for the Microanalysis of Light Elements

The quantitative determination of light element concentrations in geological specimens represents a major analytical challenge as the electron probe is generally not suited to this task. With the development of new in situ analytical techniques, and in particular the increasing use of secondary ion mass spectrometry, the routine determination of Li, Be and B contents has become a realistic goal. However, a major obstacle to the development of this research field is the critical dependence of SIMS on the availability of well characterized, homogeneous reference materials that are closely matched in matrix (composition and structure) to the sample being studied. Here we report the first results from a suite of large, gem crystals which cover a broad spectrum of minerals in which light elements are major constituents. We have characterized these materials using both in situ and wet chemical techniques. The samples described here are intended for distribution to geochemical laboratories active in the study of light elements. Further work is needed before reference values for these materials can be finalized, but the availability of this suite of materials represents a major step toward the routine analysis of the light element contents of geological specimens.     

Light-cued emergence and re-entry events in a strongly tidal estuary

Acoustic backscatter from an active sonar system (TAPS-6) over a range of six frequencies between 265 kHz and 3 MHz revealed characteristics of emergence and reentry events within 1 h of sunset and sunrise, respectively, at a site 10 m deep in the Damariscotta River estuary, Maine. Emergence traps indicated that the mysid shrimpNeomysis americana was the dominant migrator. Daily fluctuation in irradiance influenced the timing of dusk emergence. Local variability in irradiance apparently caused populations to emerge occasionally before sunset or to leave the surface after the beginning of nautical twilight near dawn. Emergence before sunset was marked by slower-than-average ascent, and departure from the surface after initiation of nautical twilight was marked by faster-than-average descent. This pattern would be expected for populations avoiding visual predators by concealment in dark water. Mean ascent (0.29 ± 0.03 cm s⁻¹ [±1 SE]) and descent (−0.26 ± 0.02 cm s⁻¹) velocities showed little difference in magnitude, suggesting that a similar mechanism controls both. Ascent initiation times for the first such event of the night were consistent with a cue based on relative rate of change in light intensity and inconsistent with either the progress of isolumes or with absolute rate of change in light intensity.     

Productivity response of climax temperate forests to elevated temperature and carbon dioxide: a north american comparison between two global models

We assess the appropriateness of using regression- and process-based approaches for predicting biogeochemical responses of ecosystems to global change. We applied a regression-based model, the Osnabruck Model (OBM), and a process-based model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to the historical range of temperate forests in North America in a factorial experiment with three levels of temperature (+0 °C, +2 °C, and +5 °C) and two levels of CO₂ (350 ppmv and 700 ppmv) at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude. For contemporary climate (+0 °C, 350 ppmv), OBM and TEM estimate the total net primary productivity (NPP) for temperate forests in North America to be 2.250 and 2.602 × 10¹⁵ g C ? yr^?1, respectively. Although the continental predictions for contemporary climate are similar, the responses of NPP to altered climates qualitatively differ; at +0 °C and 700 ppmv CO₂, OBM and TEM predict median increases in NPP of 12.5% and 2.5%, respectively. The response of NPP to elevated temperature agrees most between the models in northern areas of moist temperate forest, but disagrees in southern areas and in regions of dry temperate forest. In all regions, the response to CO₂ is qualitatively different between the models. These differences occur, in part, because TEM includes known feedbacks between temperature and ecosystem processes that affect N availability, photosynthesis, respiration, and soil moisture. Also, it may not be appropriate to extrapolate regression-based models for climatic conditions that are not now experienced by ecosystems. The results of this study suggest that the process-based approach is able to progress beyond the limitations of the regression-based approach for predicting biogeochemical responses to global change.     

Prehistoric dyke trends on Mount Etna; implications for magma transport and storage

The distributions and alignments of over 200 prehistoric dykes exposed in the walls of the Valle del Bove caldera on Mount Etna have been plotted, and samples collected from some 10% of those occurring in the southern wall. Important tectonic trends are reflected by the dykes, along which magma movement was facilitated prior to the formation of the caldera. Close directional relations between the dyke trends and the orientations of historic fissures on the volcano, point to the existence of a plexus of interconnecting subsurface fissures immediately to the south-east of the summit. A model is envisaged within which magma enters this «clearing house» from depth, and is distributed via fissures to other parts of the volcano including the summit region. Here, the interaction of fissures with the conduits of the summit craters is put forward as a mechanism to explain the behaviour of recent activity.