Landslide occurrence and its relation with terrain factors in the Siwalik Hills,Nepal: case study of susceptibility assessment in three basins

Landslides in the three studied basins of the Siwalik Hills are not random in distribution; they tend to cluster in certain areas implying the control of certain in situ factors or their combination. Landslide controlling in situ factors were reviewed and analyzed from maps, aerial photos and imageries using GIS. Chi square analysis was carried out to test the significance of landslide distribution vis-à-vis in situ factors. Slope gradient and relative relief were consistently significant in landslide distribution. Geology, dip-topography relation, land use and land cover, and vegetation conditions appeared important in landslide occurrence in all three basins either in terms of area or count in any two basins. Slope aspect and altitude tested significant for landslide occurrence in at least two basins. However, upslope flow contributing area, drainage density and distance to lineament were found insignificant in all three basins. In situ factors that tested significant in any two basins were used for landslide susceptibility analysis using a bivariate statistical approach. The distribution of landslides strongly correlates with susceptibility indices. With in situ factors, landslide susceptibility had good correlation with slope gradient and relative relief. Incorporating calculated factor weight values from one basin to the other two basins, proxy susceptibility index maps were also prepared. A moderate to good positive correlation appeared between them implying certain range of confidence for replicating the result for whole of the Siwalik Hills. Slope gradient and relative relief can be used as proxy indicators of landslide susceptible areas in the Siwalik Hills.     

Multi-year observations of the high mountain water cycle in the Langtang catchment,Central Himalaya

The Langtang catchment is a high mountain, third order catchment in the Gandaki basin in the Central Himalaya (28.2°N, 85.5°E), that eventually drains into the Ganges. The catchment spans an elevation range from 1400 to 7234 m a.s.l. and approximately one quarter of the area is glacierized. Numerous research projects have been conducted in the valley during the last four decades, with a strong focus on the cryospheric components of the catchment water balance. Since 2012 multiple weather stations and discharge stations provide measurements of atmospheric and hydrologic variables. Full weather stations are used to monitor at an hourly resolution all four radiation components (incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation; SW_in/out and LW_in/out), air temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation, and cover an elevational range of 3862–5330 m a.s.l. Air temperature and precipitation are monitored along elevation gradients for investigations of the spatial variability of the high mountain meteorology. Dedicated point-scale observations of snow cover, depth and water equivalent as well as ice loss have been carried out over multiple years and complement the observations of the water cycle. All data presented is openly available in a database and will be updated annually.     

Investigation on spectral behavior of Solar transients and their interrelationship

We probe the spectral hardening of solar flares emission in view of associated solar proton events (SEPs) at earth and coronal mass ejection (CME) acceleration as a consequence. In this investigation we undertake 60 SEPs of the Solar Cycle 23 along with associated Solar Flares and CMEs. We employ the X-ray emission in Solar flares observed by Reuven Ramaty Higly Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) in order to estimate flare plasma parameters. Further, we employ the observations from Geo-stationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO), for SEPs and CMEs parameter estimation respectively. We report a good association of soft-hard-harder (SHH) spectral behavior of Flares with occurrence of Solar Proton Events for 16 Events (observed by RHESSI associated with protons). In addition, we have found a good correlation (R=0.71) in SEPs spectral hardening and CME velocity. We conclude that the Protons as well as CMEs gets accelerated at the Flare site and travel all the way in interplanetary space and then by re-acceleration in interplanetary space CMEs produce Geomagnetic Storms in geospace. This seems to be a statistically significant mechanism of the SEPs and initial CME acceleration in addition to the standard scenario of SEP acceleration at the shock front of CMEs.     

Optimization and uncertainty analysis of operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system

This paper presents optimization and uncertainty analysis of operation policies for Hirakud reservoir system in Orissa state, India. The Hirakud reservoir project serves multiple purposes such as flood control, irrigation and power generation in that order of priority. A 10-daily reservoir operation model is formulated to maximize annual hydropower production subjected to satisfying flood control restrictions, irrigation requirements, and various other physical and technical constraints. The reservoir operational model is solved by using elitist-mutated particle swarm optimization (EMPSO) method, and the uncertainty in release decisions and end-storages are analyzed. On comparing the annual hydropower production obtained by EMPSO method with historical annual hydropower, it is found that there is a greater chance of improving the system performance by optimally operating the reservoir system. The analysis also reveals that the inflow into reservoir is highly uncertain variable, which significantly influences the operational decisions for reservoir system. Hence, in order to account uncertainty in inflow, the reservoir operation model is solved for different exceedance probabilities of inflows. The uncertainty in inflows is represented through probability distributions such as normal, lognormal, exponential and generalized extreme value distributions; and the best fit model is selected to obtain inflows for different exceedance probabilities. Then the reservoir operation model is solved using EMPSO method to arrive at suitable operational policies corresponding to various inflow scenarios. The results show that the amount of annual hydropower generated decreases as the value of inflow exceedance probability increases. The obtained operational polices provides confidence in release decisions, therefore these could be useful for reservoir operation.     

On precursors to the Italy earthquake M.6.2 using VLF signal of NSY(45.9 kHz) received at Kiel Longwave Monitor

On August 24, 2016, an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 struck Central Italy (42.706°N and 13.223°E) at 1:36 UT. We present the results obtained from the US Navy VLF Transmitter’s NSY signal of 45.9 kHz transmitted from Niscemi, in the province of Sicily, Italy and received at the Kiel Longwave Monitor, Germany for 2016. We analysed the terminator times and their individual differences. We also analysed trends, dispersion and night time fluctuation which gave us a possible precursor the Italy earthquake. We found ionospheric perturbations in these parameters on 14th, 19th and 22nd of August, few days prior. Moreover, we filtered the possible effects due to lightning, storms and auroras if any.     

Water Balance Study for a Basin Integrating Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Water balance of a basin involves estimation of input precipitation, runoff, infiltration and evapotranspiration (ET). Although ET may have large variations over a big basin, it is commonly estimated using a few point measurements and this makes the estimation error prone. Satellite based remote sensing data provides few parameters for estimation of energy fluxes, at the land surface and atmosphere interaction in a distributed manner using the meteorological parameters. These parameters through surface energy balance equation have been used for the estimation of ET in this study. Various spatially distributed variables required for ET estimation; viz. NDVI, surface albedo, surface temperature etc. have been derived using remote sensing and ancillary data for Tapi basin located in western India. Beside this field data such as rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours etc. have been used. For computation of runoff, Soil Conservation Services (SCS) approach has been considered. Tapi basin up to Ukai dam has been selected as the study area. Satellite data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite, which carries the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), have been used for preparation of various maps required for runoff and ET analysis. The results of runoff and ET have been compared with observed data for 2 years, 2002–2003 and the results have been found in good agreement with observed data.     

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories of the BCC-CSM1.1 model were used as the future (2050) projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.     

Policy without politics: technocratic control of climate change adaptation policy making in Nepal

As developing countries around the world formulate policies to address climate change, concerns remain as to whether the voices of those most exposed to climate risk are represented in those policies. Developing countries face significant challenges for contextualizing global-scale scientific research into national political dynamics and downscaling global frameworks to sub-national levels, where the most affected are presumed to live. This article critiques the ways in which the politics of representation and climate science are framed and pursued in the process of climate policy development, and contributes to an understanding of the relative effectiveness of globally framed, generic policy mechanisms in vulnerable and politically volatile contexts. Based on this analysis, it also outlines opportunities for the possibility of improving climate policy processes to contest technocratic framing and generic international adaptation solutions.

Policy relevance

Nepal's position as one of the countries most at risk from climate change in the Himalayas has spurred significant international support to craft climate policy responses over the past few years. Focusing on the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and the Climate Change Policy, this article examines the extent to which internationally and scientifically framed climate policy in Nepal recognizes the unfolding political mobilizations around the demand for a representative state and equitable adaptation to climate risks. This is particularly important in Nepal, where political unrest in the post-conflict transition after the end of the civil war in 2006 has focused around struggles over representation for those historically on the political margins. Arguing that vulnerability to climate risk is produced in conjunction with social and political conditions, and that not everyone in the same locality is equally vulnerable, we demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of the politics of representation for climate policy making in Nepal. However, so far, this policy making has primarily been shaped through a technocratic framing that avoids political contestations and downplays the demand for inclusive and deliberative processes. Based on this analysis, we identify the need for a flexible, contextually grounded, and multi-scalar approach to political representation while also emphasizing the need for downscaling climate science that can inform policy development and implementation to achieve fair and effective adaptation to climate change.