A novel set pair analysis method based on variable weights for liquefaction evaluation

To ensure the safety of structures, high-speed railway and highway founded on liquefiable soils, liquefaction evaluation is a primary task. Herein, a dynamic set pair analysis method based on variable weights is introduced to assess liquefaction. A concept of connection degree of set pair consisting of the evaluation sample and the classification standard was described to interpret the uncertainty of liquefaction and relationship. Moreover, based on reward and penalty mechanism, state variable vectors were presented to assign composite weights of evaluation indicators in order to take into account impacts of indicator variation. And the integrated connection degree to each grade was calculated to evaluate liquefaction of the evaluated cases. Results from practical example and comparison with field investigation and extension method indicated that this proposed model used to evaluate liquefaction is feasible and effective. In addition, it can quantitatively describe liquefaction hierarchy of evaluated samples.     

Rebirth after death: forest succession dynamics in response to climate change on Gongga Mountain,Southwest China

Global climate change is having long-term impacts on the geographic distribution of forest species. However, the response of vertical belts of mountain forests to climate change is still little known. The vertical distribution of forest vegetation(vertical vegetation belt) on Gongga Mountain in Southwest China has been monitored for 30 years. The forest alternation of the vertical vegetation belt under different climate conditions was simulated by using a mathematical model GFSM(the Gongga Forest Succession Model). Three possible Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) climate scenarios(increase of air temperature and precipitation by 1.8℃/5%, 2.8℃/10% and 3.4℃/15% for B_1, A_1B and A_2 scenarios, respectively) were chosen to reflect lower, medium and higher changes of global climate. The vertical belts of mountainous vegetation will shift upward by approximately 300 m, 500 m and 600 m in the B_1, A_1B and A_2 scenarios, respectively, according to the simulated results. Thus, the alpine tree-line will move to a higher altitude. The simulation also demonstrated that, in a changing climate, the shift in the vegetation community will be a slow and extended process characterized by two main phases. During the initial phase, trees of the forest community degrade or die, owing to an inability to adapt to a warmer climate. This results in modest environment for the introduction of opportunistic species, consequently, the vegetation with new dominant tree species becomes predominant in the space vacated by the dead trees at the expense of previously dominated original trees as the succession succeed and climate change advance. Hence, the global climate change would dramatically change forest communities and tree species in mountainous regions because that the new forest community can grow only through the death of the original tree. Results indicated that climate change will cause the change of distribution and composition of forest communities on Gongga Mountain, and this change may enhance as the intensity of climate change increases. As a result, the alternation of death and rebirth would finally result in intensive landscape changes, and may strongly affect the eco-environment of mountainous regions.     

吉林省地质灾害类型及防治对策探讨

本文针对吉林省的地质灾害类型及各类地质灾害的成因，分布及其危害进行了论述。对其防治对策进行了探讨，提出了切合本省实际的五项防治措施。     

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页岩气藏地质学特征研究新进展——来自2011年AAPG年会的信息

以2011年美国AAPG年会论文摘要和大会专题发言材料为主要依据,结合近年来对北美地区页岩气野外地质考察的成果,对页岩气藏的地质学特征作了一个基本介绍。重点介绍北美地区页岩气藏的分布和开发现状,页岩气藏的地层沉积相和层序地层特征,储集岩特征和岩石学、成岩作用特征4个方面的内容,并结合中国页岩气藏研究的现状,对中国页岩气资源潜力进行了概述性分析。     

Ecosystem Health: Assessment Framework,Spatial Evolution,and Regional Optimization in Southwest China

Regional ecological health,the core of comprehensive ecosystem assessments,is an important foundation for regional exploration,environmental conservation,and sustainable development.The mountainous areas in southwest China are backward in economy,but industrialization and urbanization have been rapid in recent years.This study assessed the ecosystem health of the Sichuan and Yunnan provinces in China using a pressure-state-response(PSR)model.Spatiotemporal patterns of regional ecosystem health were analyzed from 2000 to 2016,including overall characteristics as well as local characteristics.Ecosystem health in most regions was improved over time(Y=0.0058 X–11.0132,R2=0.95,P<0.001),and areas with poorer ecosystem health decreased from half to one-third of the total area.Analysis of the primacy ratio and the variation coefficient confirmed that the gap in health scores between regions has gradually expanded since 2007,but there are more high quality regions overall(Z of Moran’s index<1.96,P>0.05).Overall,the regional ecosystems to the east of the Hu line-an imaginary line dividing east and west China into roughly equivalent parts-were healthier than those to the west.The pressure and state scores of ecosystems were determined by physiographic condition,and the response scores by government policies and social concern.The spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem health were dominated to a greater extent by natural than anthropogenic factors,which explains why the shift in the patterns aligned with the direction of the Hu line.Dividing regions into key management areas based on natural geographical conditions and socioeconomic development could contribute to the formulation of a reasonable ecological and environmental protection policy,guaranteeing ecosystem services in the long run.     

Influencing factors of seed long-distance dispersal on a fragmented forest landscape on Changbai Mountains,China

Seed long-distance dispersal(LDD) events are typically rare, but are important in the population processes that determine large-scale forest changes and the persistence of species in fragmented landscapes. However, previous studies focused on species dispersed via animal-mediated LDD, and ignored those dispersed by wind. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of canopy openness, edge, seed source, and patch tree density on the LDD of seeds by wind in forest. We collected birch seeds, a typical wind-dispersed species, throughout a larch plantation. We then assessed the relationship between birch LDD and each factor that may influence LDD of seeds by wind including distance to edge, canopy openness size, distance to mature forest, and the tree density of the larch plantation. We used univariate linear regression analysis to assess the influence of those factors on birch LDD, and partial correlations to calculate the contribution of each factor to LDD. The results showed that both canopy openness and edge had significant influences on birch LDD. Specifically, a negative relationship was observed between distance to edge and birch LDD, whereas there was a positive correlation between canopy openness size and LDD. In contrast, the distance to the mature forest was not correlated with birch LDD. Our results suggest that patch tree density could potently affect the probability of LDD by wind vectors, which provides novel and revealing insights regarding the effect of fragmentation on wind dynamics. The data also provide compelling evidence for the previously undocumented effect of habitat fragmentation on wind-dispersed organisms. As such, these observations will facilitate reasonable conservation planning, which requires a detailed understanding of the mechanisms by which patch properties hamper the delivery of seeds of wind-dispersed plants to fragmented areas.     

白令海北部陆坡晚第四纪的古海洋与古气候学记录

白令海北部陆坡B2 9柱状样中放射虫Cycladophoradavisiana含量曲线和深海SPECMAP氧同位素记录的对比 ,为该柱状样建立了晚第四纪约 1 0万年以来的地层年代框架。该柱状样中微体化石、碳屑颗粒、筏冰碎屑 (石英和岩屑颗粒 )的定量分析结果表明 ,作为表层生产力指标的粗组份自氧同位素 5 .3期以来呈阶梯状增加 ,反映表层生产力阶段式的增长 ;碳屑颗粒丰度自氧同位素 5 .3期至末次冰消期的增加说明白令海末次冰消期以前气候较全新世干冷 ,天然火灾发生的概率较全新世大大增加 ;冰期和早、中全新世较高的筏冰碎屑反映了冰期和早、中全新世白令海陆架海冰的扩大以及气候转暖所导致的海冰消融的过程 ,揭示了白令海对过去全球气候变化的响应。     

超临界地热资源的地球物理分析——以鲜水河高温水热系统为例

鲜水河高温水热系统位于川西地热区, 是我国重要的水热型地热资源区和高温地热发电工程建设选区, 其深层超临界地热资源可以大幅提高热-功转换效率和地热发电能力, 具有极大的应用价值.超临界地热资源是地热学的全新研究方向, 研究深层超临界地热资源促进地热学拓宽研究领域, 具有重要的科学意义.本文利用地球物理资料、地热地质资料, 对鲜水河高温水热系统超临界水热流体构造条件、有利赋存部位、热结构与热状态开展计算分析.结果表明: 鲜水河断裂带浅源小震群与深层超压热流体层相关, 热泉群串珠状负重力异常圈闭之下超厚沉积地层是赋存深层超临界地热流体储层的有利构造部位; 康定中谷—二道桥—榆林宫热水区的水源补给、热源补给、水热循环通道等地热地质条件优良, 其下方存在酸性岩浆活动, 是形成高温水热系统浅层热储、深层超临界热液区的重要热源条件.我们认为: 鲜水河断裂带是深部热流体上升至浅表产生强烈水热活动的通道, 沿此通道, 在160~250 ℃温度区间, 是鲜水河水热系统地热储层的赋存区域; 在350~400 ℃温度区间, 是深层超临界流体(H2O、CO2)的赋存区域; 随温泉水大量溢出的高浓度CO2地热气体, 伴随出现pH值略小于7的弱酸性热水, 其下方是形成深层超临界地热资源的有利区域.     

甘肃省沙漠化现状、成因及其防治对策

甘肃省地处我国西北内陆腹地,由于自然及人为因素的作用,造成省内沙漠化土地广泛分布。近半个世纪以来,沙漠化加剧,沙漠化土地面积迅速扩展,生态平衡失调,环境恶化,严重制约了社会、经济的发展。针对甘肃省沙漠化扩展的原因和防治中存在的问题,提出了防治对策。