A new DRP-4DVar-based coupled data assimilation system for decadal predictions using a fast online localization technique

Climate Dynamics - A new coupled data assimilation (CDA) system based on dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) for decadal predictions is developed...     

三套NDVI长时间序列植被指数的对比——以玛曲为例

NDVI／MODIS、NDVI／GIMMS和NDVI／NSMC是时间长度不同、空间分辨率相差甚远的3套ND—VI数据集,如何集成应用这些不同时间长度、不同分辨率的数据进行相关研究,数据集间的比较是最基础的工作。本文以甘肃省甘南州玛曲县为例,用直方图、相关分析、趋势分析等方法研究了这3套NDVI产品数据集的相互关系。结果表明：1）NDVI／NSMC与NDVI/MODIS的直方图具有类似的图像分布特征,但是NDVI／MODIS数据分布范围更大;2）3套NDVI在数值上表现为NDVI／MODIS〉NDVI／GIMMS〉NDVI／NSMC;3）3套数据集空间图像特征一致,两两间均具有十分显著的空间相关性,其中1月份相对最弱,5、10月份最强,三者相比NDVIfNSMC与NDVI／MODIS的空间相关性更强;4）1—3月、5—8月及年均的NDVI／GIMMS与NDVI／NSMC值存在显著的时间相关性,但两者逐年变化趋势存在较大差别,两者气候倾向率相差最大的高达5倍之多。NDVIfNSMC数据集在处理过程中可能未进行大气订正及交叉定标,这是造成共同源的NDVIfGIMMS与NDVI／NSMC差异较大的重要原因。     

黑洞吸积盘内边缘半径的演化

本文用广义相对论讨论了黑洞吸积盘内边缘半径ｒ（ｍｓ）的演化规律。结果表明，吸积盘的中心黑洞在由Ｓｃｈｗａｒｚｓｃｈｉｌｄ型向极端Ｋｅｒｒ型演化的过程中，黑洞的角动量变化对ｒ（ｍｓ）的影响始终比黑洞的质量变化对ｒ（ｍｓ）的影响大。在此过程中ｒ（ｍｓ）始终是连续、单调减小的。本文得出ｒ（ｍｓ）对时间变化率的取值范围，并对其物理意义作了讨论。     

The magnetic properties of Quaternary and Tertiary sediments in the southern North Sea

Cores from boreholes penetrating late Quaternary, glacial, interglacial and postglacial sediments and the underlying late Cenozoic delta complex of the southern North Sea have been examined for their magnetic properties. A magnetic polarity stratigraphy has been established as an aid to biostratigraphic dating of the sediments; the Kaena-Gauss and Gauss—Matuyama transitions and the base and top of the Olduvai subchron have been identified. The strength and stability of laboratory-induced isothermal remanent magnetisation display clear magneto-petrological variations, which match lithostratigraphic changes in the cores. Principal component analysis has picked out a basin-wide and palaeoenvironmental consistency in the magnetic data. Large, multi-domain magnetite grains predominate in the post-deltaic and fluvio-deltaic sediments, whereas smaller greigite or titanomagnetite grains are concentrated in the intertidal and marine deltaic facies. Since heavy mineral analysis indicates that most of the deltaic detritus derived from common source areas, the differences in magnetic mineralogy have probably been caused by the sediment transport processes operating within the delta complex.     

机载GPS辅助空中三角测量若干问题研究

针对机载GPS数据辅助空中三角测量时控制数据稀少的情况,分别从有、无构架航线等方面探讨:控制点数量、控制点位置分布、GPS数据丢失对平差精度的影响及补救措施等问题,同时结合生产实践,分析GPS辅助空三测量在现行生产中的应用优势。     

2008年12月两次强冷空气对河南影响的差异

采用NCEP/NCAR资料和常规观测资料,对河南省2008年12月3-6日和19-22日的两次强冷空气过程进行对比分析,结果表明:1)两次过程前期中层均为强盛的西北气流,天气晴好,气温偏高.对河南的影响均以强降温和大风天气为主,最大降温幅度接近,3-6日过程冷空气持续时间更长,强降温范围更广;后一过程持续时间较短,降温主要在豫东北部,大风更为明显.2)前一冷空气过程为"不稳定小槽东移发展型",后一过程为"横槽转竖型".冷空气源地均为新地岛以东洋面;均在贝加尔湖一带形成横槽,横槽北侧的东北气流引导极地冷空气加强,形成异常强的冷高压和冷中心,是造成两次强降温的主要原因.3)第一次冷空气为偏北路径,后一过程为典型的中路路径.4)过程中大风与强的正变压、强冷空气下沉运动引起的动量下传及其到地面时的强度和落区存在紧密联系.     

Energy transition,CO2 mitigation,and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model

The salinization of freshwater-dependent coastal ecosystems precedes inundation by sea level rise. This type of saltwater intrusion places communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure at substantial risk. Risk perceptions of local residents are an indicator to gauge public support for climate change adaptation planning. Here, we document residential perspectives on the present and future threats posed by saltwater intrusion in a rural, low-lying region in coastal North Carolina, and we compare the spatial distribution of survey responses to physical landscape variables such as distance to coastline, artificial drainage density, elevation, saltwater intrusion vulnerability, and actual salinity measured during a synoptic field survey. We evaluate and discuss the degree of alignment or misalignment between risk perceptions and metrics of exposure to saltwater intrusion. Risk perceptions align well with the physical landscape characteristics, as residents with greater exposure to saltwater intrusion, including those living on low-lying land with high concentrations of artificial drainages, perceive greater risk than people living in low-exposure areas. Uncertainty about threats of saltwater intrusion is greatest among those living at higher elevations, whose properties and communities are less likely to be exposed to high salinity. As rising sea levels, drought, and coastal storms increase the likelihood of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions, integrated assessments of risk perceptions and physical exposure are critical for developing outreach activities and planning adaptation measures.

     

广西忻城县里苗-塘岭锰矿床控矿因素及成矿模式

广西宜州市龙头锰矿是我国石炭系锰矿的典型代表。2014~2016年,中国冶金地质总局广西地质勘查院在南丹-宜州地区开展矿产地质调查工作取得了新的突破,圈定了弄竹、塘岭找矿靶区。两个靶区经后续广西地勘资金勘查,在里苗-塘岭一带估算锰矿资源量达8000多万吨,成为我国石炭系最大的锰矿。为了揭示该矿床的成矿机制,本文从区域成矿地质背景、矿床地质特征、构造环境、岩相古地理、锰质来源、矿化富集规律等方面分析了其控矿因素,圈定了成锰盆地边界线,建立了成矿模式。认为里苗-塘岭锰矿床是受NE向同沉积断裂控制的海底热水沉积矿床,是走滑拉张断陷-含锰热水-台沟相沉积环境耦合作用的产物。     

人地系统适应性研究进展：概念、理论框架与方法

适应性研究旨在通过主体对外部环境变化的调整,以削减其负面影响并改善适应能力,是实现人地系统可持续发展的重要途径。鉴于目前对适应性理论体系缺乏统一认识和系统梳理,论文通过对国内外人地系统适应性研究文献总结,从概念内涵、理论框架和方法对适应性研究进展进行了总结,并提出了适应性研究的科学范式。研究发现：① 学术界对适应性概念的理解并未达成科学共识,阻碍了通用的适应性研究理论体系的构建。② 现有适应性分析框架多是基于全球变化领域理论框架基础的延伸和修订。③ 适应性研究缺乏具有代表性的方法,以借用脆弱性、恢复力评估方法和指标体系为主。因此,统一的适应性概念和理论体系的构建亟需加强,而国外既有积累的理论经验并不通用,中国化的适应性分析框架、方法是未来的重要研究方向。同时,应强化人类社会和自然环境“综合”的人地系统适应性研究,注重多尺度结合的适应性动态分析。