关于全国地震重点监视防御区制度实施现状、成效之调查、设计的说明

为评估全国地震重点监视防御区制度的实施现状、成效,课题组对相关问题进行了定性和定量研究,定量研究以系列问卷调查为主,包括政府、社区和公众问卷等。本文重点说明了系列问卷调查的设计、抽样以及回收情况,并对问卷调查发现的问题做了简单介绍。     

地震重点监视防御区县级行政单元地震危险性的差异统计及其分类管理的建议

本文利用GIS技术,将全国地震重点监视防御区(重防区)县级行政单元边界分别与中华人民共和国地震动峰值加速度图和中国及邻区地震区带和潜在震源区划分图叠加,对各县分别计算了如下4个地震危险性指标:(1)县境内最高地震动峰值加速度等级;(2)县境内面积比例最大的地震动峰值加速度等级;(3)县境内最高潜在震源区震级上限等级;(4)县境内面积比例最大的潜在震源区震级上限等级.通过分类统计全国重防区县级行政单元的地震危险性分布,得到的结论是:虽然同为重防区但各地的地震危险性相差巨大.据此,建议根据地震危险性的不同在重防区采取如下措施:第一,不论是何种类型的重防区,均应按中国地震动参数区划图对新建工程做抗震设防,对已有建筑做抗震加固;第二,位于高地震危险性的区域,特别是位于具7级以上潜在地震危险的重防区,要加强与防灾有关的应急准备、城市规划、地震监测预报、地震应急响应等专门措施.     

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.     

高压直流输电对泾县地震台地磁观测干扰分析

高压直流输电线路对地磁观测的干扰幅度大,随意性大.泾县地震台地磁观测目前受到附近穿行的多条高压直流输电影响,且无法避免.通过对泾县地震台观测资料分析,就高压直流输电对地磁观测的干扰原理和一些识别的方法有一定认识,并掌握有效剔除方法.     

The Common Fisheries Policy: An enforcement problem

Marine populations in Europe are in decline due to the unsuccessful results of the Common Fisheries Policy. By combining data of scientific recommendations from ICES, TACs approved and reported landings with an age-structured model, the objectives of this paper are to investigate the level of compliance of the TAC regulation, and the level of enforcement and its economic impact on fishery resources. The results presented here suggest that while there does not exist a regular pattern between TAC proposal and TAC approved, there is a clear pattern between TAC approved and reported landings. As a consequence, there is a regular lack of enforcement at national fisheries authority level. The paper also presents results of the recovery plans for the Southern hake and the Atlantic cod fisheries as case studies to illustrate the level of enforcement based on collusion between national fisheries advisers and industry. The results from both cases studies analyzed here indicate that drastic solutions could generate positive results for the recovery of the stocks, but perhaps they are not always the best measure in fisheries management due to the high economic losses for fishermen and social effects on coastal communities in the short and medium term. Finally, this work demonstrates that if the recovery plans had been implemented, the net present profits for both fisheries would have increased over time.     

吉林省小西南岔金铜矿床地球化学特征

小西南岔金铜矿床为浅成金铜共生大型矿床,受岩体-地层-构造联合控制,以叠加富集为主.矿区分为南山和北山两个矿段.矿化主要发育在闪长岩和斜长花岗岩中的北北西向断裂带及岩体接触带中,矿化以含金铜石英硫化物脉型及密集细脉为主.矿区水系沉积物异常元素为Au、Cu、Ag、Bi、Zn、Mo（W、Sb、As）;土壤异常元素为Cu、Mo、Au、Ag、Bi;岩石地球化学异常为Au、Cu、Ag、Bi、Ta、Ba、Sr（As、Sb、Zn、Co、Ni、W、Mo）.原生晕中轴向分带序列为（Bs、Sr）-As-Ag-Pb-Sn-W-Au-Bi-Cu-Sb-CoTe-Ni-Zn-Mo.南山矿段水平分带序列为Au-Cu-Bi-Te-Ag-Pb-Zn-As-Co-Ni-W-Sb-Mo-Sn;北山矿段为Au-Cu-Bi-Te-AgAs-Sb-Mo-Pb-Zn-Co-W-Ni-Sn.矿床地球化学异常特征及其分带性显示北山矿段矿体剥蚀程度大于南山矿段,矿区北西部矿体剥蚀强度大于南东部,表明向矿区南部仍有较大找矿远景.     

Arctic freshwater ostracods from modern periglacial environments in the Lena River Delta (Siberian Arctic,Russia): geochemical applications for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions

The aim of this study is to describe ostracods from freshwater habitats in the Siberian Arctic in order to estimate the present-day relationships between the environmental setting and the geochemical properties of ostracod calcite. A special focus is on the element ratios (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca), and the stable isotope composition (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C), in both ambient waters and ostracod calcite. The most common species are Fabaeformiscandona pedata and F. harmsworthi with the highest frequency in all studied waters. Average partition coefficients D(Sr) of F. pedata are 0.33 ± 0.06 (1σ) in females, and 0.32 ± 0.06 (1σ) in males. A near 1:1 relationship of δ¹⁸O was found, with a mean shift of Δ_mean = 2.2‰ ± 0.5 (1σ) to heavier values in ostracod calcite of F. pedata as compared to ambient waters. The shift is not dependent on δ¹⁸O_water, and is caused by metabolic (vital) and temperature effects. Temperature-dependence is reflected in the variations of this shift. For ostracod calcite of F. pedata a vital effect as compared to inorganic calcite in equilibrium was quantified with 1.4‰. Results of this study are valuable for the palaeoenvironmental interpretation of geochemical data of fossil ostracods from permafrost deposits.     

On the impact of salinity observations on state estimates in Ems Estuary

The hydrodynamics of Ems Estuary are dominated by tides and their interaction with buoyancy forcing. Such an environment is challenging for any effort to bring together observations and model results. In this study, we investigate how salinity measurements in the Ems Estuary affect the reconstruction of the salinity field. Similar to the traditional observing system experiments, the impact of specific observational arrays is simulated in the framework of statistical experiments. The experimental algorithm mainly relies on the model covariance matrix. Each experiment results in an estimate of the reconstruction error. The analysed observation configurations involve single and multiple, as well as stationary and non-stationary observing arrays. Generally, the reconstruction of the ocean state improves with increasing the density of observations. It appears that certain locations are more favourable for reconstruction than others. In fact, the regions separating the main dynamical realms resist strongest to the reconstruction effort. Extending the covariance matrix by the temporal cross-covariances between the model grid points enables to evaluate the impact of observations taken from a moving platform. This approach further improves the outcome of the experiments, resulting in reconstruction errors near zero with the exception of the tidal river. The cross-covariance information is able to tackle even the irregular dynamics arising on the border between the different physical regimes.