Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

A series of gas hydrate development scenarios were created to assess the range of outcomes predicted for the possible development of the “Eileen” gas hydrate accumulation, North Slope, Alaska. Production forecasts for the “reference case” were built using the 2002 Mallik production tests, mechanistic simulation, and geologic studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Three additional scenarios were considered: A “downside-scenario” which fails to identify viable production, an “upside-scenario” describes results that are better than expected. To capture the full range of possible outcomes and balance the downside case, an “extreme upside scenario” assumes each well is exceptionally productive.Starting with a representative type-well simulation forecasts, field development timing is applied and the sum of individual well forecasts creating the field-wide production forecast. This technique is commonly used to schedule large-scale resource plays where drilling schedules are complex and production forecasts must account for many changing parameters. The complementary forecasts of rig count, capital investment, and cash flow can be used in a pre-appraisal assessment of potential commercial viability.Since no significant gas sales are currently possible on the North Slope of Alaska, typical parameters were used to create downside, reference, and upside case forecasts that predict from 0 to 71 BM³ (2.5 tcf) of gas may be produced in 20 years and nearly 283 BM³ (10 tcf) ultimate recovery after 100 years.Outlining a range of possible outcomes enables decision makers to visualize the pace and milestones that will be required to evaluate gas hydrate resource development in the Eileen accumulation. Critical values of peak production rate, time to meaningful production volumes, and investments required to rule out a downside case are provided. Upside cases identify potential if both depressurization and thermal stimulation yield positive results. An “extreme upside” case captures the full potential of unconstrained development with widely spaced wells. The results of this study indicate that recoverable gas hydrate resources may exist in the Eileen accumulation and that it represents a good opportunity for continued research.     

A reference typology of low alkalinity lakes in the UK based on pre-acidification diatom assemblages from lake sediment cores

This paper has two aims: (1) to show for the first time how a natural typology can be established using palaeoecological methods; and (2) to show how it can be used in lake restoration studies with respect to the definition of recovery targets for acidified lakes. By defining the characteristic reference assemblages for low alkalinity site types rather than for a specific site it allows success to be measured more broadly, unconstrained by the specific composition of the pre-acidification flora. We analyse statistically the pre-acidification diatom assemblages of sediment cores from 121 low alkalinity lakes in the UK in order to assess whether a reference typology for such lakes can be defined on the basis of their diatom floras. We use samples dating to ~1850 AD to represent pre-acidification conditions. The results show that three main clusters can be identified, two dominated by benthic taxa (Clusters 1 and 3) and one dominated by planktonic taxa (Cluster 2). Cluster 1 is characterised by taxa such as Brachysira vitrea, Cymbella microcephala and Fragilaria spp., Cluster 2 by Cyclotella comensis, C. radiosa, Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira subarctica and Achnanthes minutissima and Cluster 3 by Eunotia incisa, Frustulia rhomboides var. saxonica, Fragilaria virescens var. exigua, and Cymbella perpusilla. Although environmental data for 1850 AD are not available it is apparent from the contemporary distribution of the taxa in the different clusters that Cluster 2 represents the most alkaline pre-acidification conditions. Some sites in this cluster have been acidified, but some, especially the larger, deeper lakes have been enriched. Cluster 1 includes sites that contain diatoms with relatively high pH optima (pH 6.4–7.4) whereas Cluster 3 sites contain diatoms with the lowest pre-acidification pH conditions in the data-set. Sites in this cluster also have the lowest base cation concentrations at the present day and include the sites in the UK that have been most affected by acid deposition.     

A study of the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich increment using archival SCUBA data

In a search for evidence of the short wavelength increment in the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect, we have analysed archival galaxy cluster data from the Submillimetre Common User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, resulting in the most complete pointed survey of clusters at 850 μm to date. SCUBA's 850-μm passband overlaps the peak of the SZ increment. The sample consists of 44 galaxy clusters in the range 0 < z < 1.3. Maps of each of the clusters have been made and sources have been extracted; as an ancillary product, we generate the most thorough galaxy cluster point source list yet from SCUBA. 17 of these clusters are free of obvious active galactic nuclei (AGN) and have data deep enough to provide interesting measurements of the expected SZ signal. Specialized analysis techniques are employed to extract the SZ effect signal from these SCUBA data, including using SCUBA's short wavelength band as an atmospheric monitor and fitting the long wavelength channel to a model of the spatial distribution of each cluster's SZ effect. By explicitly excising the exact cluster centre from our analysis, we demonstrate that emission from galaxies within the cluster does not contaminate our measurement. The SZ amplitudes from our measurements are consistently higher than the amplitudes inferred from low-frequency measurements of the SZ decrement.     

Ultraviolet photolysis of anthracene in H2O interstellar ice analogs: Potential connection to meteoritic organics

Abstract— The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) anthracene was oxidized by exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation in H₂O ice under simulated astrophysical conditions, forming several anthracene ketones (9‐anthrone, 1,4‐anthraquinone, and 9,10‐anthraquinone) and alcohols (1‐anthrol and 2‐anthrol). Two of the ketones produced have been detected in the Murchison meteorite but, to our knowledge, there has been no search for the alcohols or other oxidized anthracenes in meteorites. These results seem consistent with the possibility that interstellar ice photochemistry could have influenced the inventory of aromatics in meteorites. Since quinones are also fundamental to biochemistry, their formation in space and delivery to planets is relevant to studies relating to the habitability of planets and the evolution of life.     

Cassini thermal observations of Saturn's main rings: Implications for particle rotation and vertical mixing

In late 2004 and 2005 the Cassini composite infrared spectrometer (CIRS) obtained spatially resolved thermal infrared radial scans of Saturn's main rings (A, B and C, and Cassini Division) that show ring temperatures decreasing with increasing solar phase angle, α, on both the lit and unlit faces of the ring plane. These temperature differences suggest that Saturn's main rings include a population of ring particles that spin slowly, with a spin period greater than 3.6 h, given their low thermal inertia. The A ring shows the smallest temperature variation with α, and this variation decreases with distance from the planet. This suggests an increasing number of smaller, and/or more rapidly rotating ring particles with more uniform temperatures, resulting perhaps from stirring by the density waves in the outer A ring and/or self-gravity wakes.The temperatures of the A and B rings are correlated with their optical depth, τ, when viewed from the lit face, and anti-correlated when viewed from the unlit face. On the unlit face of the B ring, not only do the lowest temperatures correlate with the largest τ, these temperatures are also the same at both low and high α, suggesting that little sunlight is penetrating these regions.The temperature differential from the lit to the unlit side of the rings is a strong, nearly linear, function of optical depth. This is consistent with the expectation that little sunlight penetrates to the dark side of the densest rings, but also suggests that little vertical mixing of ring particles is taking place in the A and B rings.     

The Brave New World of Binary Star Studies

In this paper we discuss some of the new and exciting developments in the study of binary stars. Recent technological advances (such as CCDs) now make it possible (even easy) to study faint, astrophysically important binaries that in the past could only be done with large 4 + meter class telescopes. Also, the panoramic nature of CCDs (and the use of mosaics), permit large numbers of stars to be imaged and studied. At this conference, most of the observational material discussed was secured typically with smaller aperture 0.5 – 2 m telescopes. Excellent examples are the discovery of over 10⁴ new ～13 – 20 mag eclipsing (and interacting) binaries now found in nearby galaxies from the EROS, OGLE, MACHO and DIRECT programs. As briefly discussed here, and in more detail in several papers in this volume, a small fraction of these extragalactic eclipsing binaries are now serving as “standard candles” to secure accurate distances to the Magellanic Clouds, as well as to M31 and M33. Moreover, the discovery of increasingly larger numbers of eclipsing binaries has stimulated the development of automatic methods for reducing and analyzing the light curves of thousands of systems. In the near future, hundreds of thousands (possibly millions) of additional systems are expected to be discovered by Pan-STARRS, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescopes (LSST), and later by GAIA. Over the last decade, new classes of binary systems have also been found which contain Jupiter-size planets and binaries containing pulsating stars. Some examples of these important binaries are discussed. Also discussed are the increasing numbers (now eight) of eclipsing binary planet–star systems that have been found from high precision photometry. These systems are very important since the radii and masses of the hosted planets can be directly measured. Moreover, from the upcoming COROT and KEPLER missions hundreds of additional transiting planet-star systems are expected to be found. All in all, we hope in this paper to highlight some of the current developments and new directions in the “Brave New World” of binary star studies.