Interpretation of SOFIE PMC measurements: Cloud identification and derivation of mass density,particle shape,and particle size

The Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE) was launched onboard the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) spacecraft to measure polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) and their environment. This work describes methods for identifying PMCs in SOFIE observations and determining mass density, particle shape, particle effective radius, and the parameters of a Gaussian size distribution. Results using SOFIE measurements from the northern summer of 2007 are compared with concurrent observations by the ALOMAR lidar in northern Norway. Ice particle properties determined from SOFIE are in good agreement with the lidar results, considering the differences in instrument characteristics.     

Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.     

Arctic microbial ecosystems and impacts of extreme warming during the International Polar Year

As a contribution to the International Polar Year program MERGE (Microbiological and Ecological Responses to Global Environmental change in polar regions), studies were conducted on the terrestrial and aquatic microbial ecosystems of northern Canada (details at: http://www.cen.ulaval.ca/merge/). The habitats included permafrost soils, saline coldwater springs, supraglacial lakes on ice shelves, epishelf lakes in fjords, deep meromictic lakes, and shallow lakes, ponds and streams. Microbiological samples from each habitat were analysed by HPLC pigment assays, light and fluorescence microscopy, and DNA sequencing. The results show a remarkably diverse microflora of viruses, Archaea (including ammonium oxidisers and methanotrophs), Bacteria (including filamentous sulfur-oxidisers in a saline spring and benthic mats of Cyanobacteria in many waterbodies), and protists (including microbial eukaryotes in snowbanks and ciliates in ice-dammed lakes). In summer 2008, we recorded extreme warming at Ward Hunt Island and vicinity, the northern limit of the Canadian high Arctic, with air temperatures up to 20.5 °C. This was accompanied by pronounced changes in microbial habitats: deepening of the permafrost active layer; loss of perennial lake ice and sea ice; loss of ice-dammed freshwater lakes; and 23% loss of total ice shelf area, including complete break-up and loss of the Markham Ice Shelf cryo-ecosystem. These observations underscore the vulnerability of Arctic microbial ecosystems to ongoing climate change.     

Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here, the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching ‘resistance’) of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular, a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Significantly, this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed, for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk, it is shown that the potential benefit of this ‘local’ management imperative is equivalent to ∼2.0-2.5 °C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case, a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents.     

Steep wave,turbulence, and sediment concentration statistics beneath a breaking wave field and their implications for sediment transport

A new methodology based on wavelet analysis is used to estimate steep wave statistics under depth-limited conditions and the corresponding high concentration sediment statistics. Steep waves here are defined as wave crests within the wavelet transform exceeding a root mean square derived acceleration threshold. The method is applied to laboratory data obtained in a large-scale wave-flume experiment conducted in 2005 at Oregon State University's O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory from an acoustic Doppler velocimeter and a fiber optic backscatter sensor array above a mobile sand bed. The steep wave and high concentration statistical results for the erosive condition suggest that sand suspensions are intermittent when a wave-breaking timescale (the ratio of breaking wave height and rms wave velocity) is used to detect the concurrence among steep wave, high velocity turbulent fluctuations, and sand concentration events near the bed. More importantly, at 1 cm above the bed, though the accretive case has more steep wave events, the erosive case has more steep waves and concurrent high concentration events, suggesting a more intense breaking wave process near the sensors. The use of a longer time window, based on the dominant wave period in the detection process of steep wave and high concentration events at 1 cm above the bed, does not change the resulting statistics for the erosive condition. However, increased percentages of high concentration events correlated with steep wave and high velocity turbulence events for the accretive condition are obtained. These increased percentages are conjectured to be due to advection of non-local turbulent events and sediment concentration peaks from upstream.     

Architecture of the deep critical zone in the Río Icacos watershed (Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory,Puerto Rico) inferred from drilling and ground penetrating radar (GPR)

In the critical zone, surficial bedrock interactions result in the formation of a mantle of chemically‐ and physically‐altered material defined here as regolith. In the watershed of the Río Icacos, an upland river draining the Luquillo Mountains in tropical Puerto Rico, we explored the influence of lithology (quartz diorite versus hornfels‐facies volcaniclastic rock) on weathering. Regolith profiles were studied by drilling boreholes and imaging the subsurface using ground penetrating radar (GPR). Overall, the regolith structure is not laterally continuous but rather is punctuated by zones of deep fractures that host in situ weathering, corestones, and colluvial material. GPR images of these vertical zones show reflectors at 15–20 m depth. Thus, the architecture of the critical zone in the upper Luquillo Mountains is highly dependent on lithology and its influence on fracture development. At the highest elevations where hornfels overlies quartz diorite, positive feedbacks occur when the water table drops so that oxidative weathering of biotite in the more felsic rock creates microfractures and allows deeper infiltration of meteoric waters. Such exposure results in some of the fastest weathering rocks in the world and may contribute to formation of the knickpoint in the Río Icacos watershed. This work represents the first study combining GPR and drilling to look at the structure of the deep critical zone and demonstrates: (1) the importance of combining direct methods (such as drilling) with indirect methods (such as GPR) to understand the architecture of the critical zone in tropical systems; (2) the interplay of the surficial stress regime, lithology and climate in dictating the architecture of weathering. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental validation of a simplified model for rolling isolation systems

Rolling isolation systems (RISs) protect mission‐critical equipment and valuable property from earthquake hazards by decoupling the dynamic responses of vibration‐sensitive objects from horizontal floor motions. These responses involve the constrained rolling of steel balls between bowl‐shaped surfaces. The light damping of steel balls rolling between steel plates can be augmented by adhering thin rubber sheets to the plates, thereby increasing the rolling resistance and decreasing the displacement demand on the RIS. An assessment of the ability of lightly‐ and heavily‐damped RISs to mitigate the hazard of seismically induced failures requires high‐fidelity models that can adequately capture the systems' intrinsic nonlinear behavior. The simplified model presented in this paper is applicable to RISs with any potential energy function, is amenable to both lightly‐ and heavily‐damped RISs, and is validated through the successful prediction of peak responses for a wide range of disturbance frequencies and intensities. The validated model can therefore be used to compute the spectra of peak floor motions for which displacement demands equal capacity. These spectra are compared with representative floor motion spectra provided by the American Society of Civil Engineers 7–10. The damping provided by rolling between thin viscoelastic sheets increases the allowable floor motion intensity by a factor of 2–3, depending on the period of motion. Acceleration responses of isolation systems with damping supplied in this fashion do not grow with increased damping, even for short‐period excitations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of droplets in subsea oil and gas blowouts: Development and validation of the numerical model VDROP-J

The droplet size distribution of dispersed phase (oil and/or gas) in submerged buoyant jets was addressed in this work using a numerical model, VDROP-J. A brief literature review on jets and plumes allows the development of average equations for the change of jet velocity, dilution, and mixing energy as function of distance from the orifice. The model VDROP-J was then calibrated to jets emanating from orifices ranging in diameter, D, from 0.5 mm to 0.12 m, and in cross-section average jet velocity at the orifice ranging from 1.5 m/s to 27 m/s. The d₅₀/D obtained from the model (where d₅₀ is the volume median diameter of droplets) correlated very well with data, with an R² = 0.99. Finally, the VDROP-J model was used to predict the droplet size distribution from Deepwater Horizon blowouts. The droplet size distribution from the blowout is of great importance to the fate and transport of the spilled oil in marine environment.     

Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality

Through the 21^st century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related mortality is first assessed by initially determining historical weather-type mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These are then projected into the future based on predicted weather types created in Part I. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty: for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five different climate model-scenarios, three different population projections (along with a constant-population model), and with and without partial acclimatization. Major urban centers could have a greater than tenfold increase in short-term increases in heat-related mortality in the over 65 age group by the 2090s.