Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Transfer factors of contamination between the German Bight and its tributary waters derived from measured tritium and Cs-137 activity concentrations

Summary Evaluation of the results of radioactivity monitoring in the southern North Sea between 1977 and 1987 has shown that in the water of the German Bight three areas stand out due to their different ratios between salinity and concentration of dissolved Cs-137 and tritium. While salinity steadily increases with greater distance from the coast, the Cs-137 concentration above 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) increases sharply and shows how far water from the western and central North Sea, contaminated by nuclear reprocessing in Sellafield (Irish Sea), reaches into the German Bight. In the 34 to 32.5 PSU range, the influence can be seen of water contaminated by tritium originating in the rivers Rhein, Maas and Schelde, precipitation and the nuclear reprocessing plant at La Hague (Channel). Below 32.5 PSU, the influence of the influx from the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems becomes apparent. These rivers are less contaminated with tritium.Assuming that Cs-137 and tritium, like the salinity of sea water, behave conservatively and that the decay-time of these two isotopes is long compared with the time-scale of water exchange in the southern North Sea, the concentration values measured are used to calculate the structure of the water masses in the three areas of the German Bight mentioned above using the mixing principle. Evaporation is taken into account. Results show that beyond 34 PSU, about half the sea water originates in the western central North Sea while the other half comes from the Channel. Below 34 PSU, the first mentioned share amounts only to a few per cent. Results also show that fresh water from the Rhein delta and precipitation, increasing with a decrease in salinity from 34 to 32.5 PSU, accounts for a maximum of 5% each. The fresh water influx into the German Bight via the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems amounts to app. 11% when the PSU value reaches 29. The calculated portions are the mean values for the observation period. The number of measurements available makes it impossible to distinguish more exactly between the temporal and spatial variability of the amounts of the individual components.The quantity of each calculated portion of sea water also represents the transfer factor of concentration between the nuclide concentration in the source (e. g. the Rhein) and the concentration in the German Bight. In addition, these factors are used to calculate the transfer factors of discharge using the annual drainage rates of the sources. Thus a radioactive discharge rate of 10¹⁵ Bq per year into the Rhein would produce a mean activity concentration of 0.34 Bq/l in the German Bight (at a salinity of 33.5 PSU). To verify the calculated transfer factors, tritium concentrations in the German Bight are derived from existing environmental tritium data and the results are compared with the values actually measured.

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Transferkaktoren zwischen der Deutschen Bucht und ihren Zuflüssen abgeleitet aus der Tritium- und Cs-137-Aktivitätskonzentration in den beteiligten Gewässern

Zusammenfassung Eine zusammenhängende Auswertung der Meßergebnisse der Radioaktivitätsüberwachung in der südlichen Nordsee über den Zeitraum 1977 bis 1987 hat gezeigt, daß im Wasser der Deutschen Bucht deutlich drei durch den Salzgehalt des Meerwassers und die Konzentration der gelösten Radionuklide charakterisierte Bereiche zu unterscheiden sind.Während der Salzgehalt mit wachsender Entfernung von der Küste stetig zunimmt, steigt die Cs-137-Konzentration oberhalb 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) sprunghaft an und signalisiert die Grenze, bis zu der das durch die Kernbrennstoff-Wiederaufarbeitung in Sellafield (Irische See) kontaminierte Meerwasser der westlichen und mittleren Nordsee in die Deutsche Bucht vordringt. Im Bereich 34 bis 32,5 PSU ist das von Westen zugeführte, stärker Tritium-kontaminierte Wasser aus Rhein, Maas, Schelde und atmosphärischem Niederschlag zu erkennen, an das sich unterhalb 32,5 PSU der geringer mit Tritum kontaminierte Zufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems anschließt.Davon ausgehend, daß sich Cs-137 und Tritium wie der Salzgehalt im Meerwasser konservativ verhalten und daß weiterhin die Halbwertzeit des radioaktiven Zerfalls dieser beiden Nuklide lang ist gegenüber den Wasseraustauschzeiten im betrachteten Meeresgebiet, wurden die in der südlichen Nordsee gemessenen sowie aus der Literatur für den Süßwasserbereich entnommenen Konzentrationswerte dazu genutzt, um rechnerisch mit Hilfe des Mischungsgesetzes den Wassermassenaufbau in den drei genannten Salinitätsbereichen in der Deutschen Bucht quantitativ zu bestimmen. Es zeigte sich, daß oberhalb von 34 PSU das Meerwasser aus etwa gleichen Teilen aus der westlichen/mittleren Nordsee und dem Kanal stammt, während unterhalb dieser Salzgehaltsgrenze nur noch mit wenigen Prozentanteilen Wasser aus der mittleren Nordsee zu finden ist. Ferner ergab sich, daß das aus dem Rheinmündungsbiet bzw, aus dem atmosphärischen Niederschlag stammende Süßwasser — mit sinkendem Salzgehalt steigend — bei 32,5 PSU einen maximalen Anteil von jeweils 5% an Meerwasser hat. Der direkte Süßwasserzufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems beträgt in die Deutsche Bucht bei 29 PSU ca. 11%.Die berechneten Anteile sind Mittelwerte über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum; die Anzahl der Messungen läßt eine genauere Unterscheidung in zeitliche und räumliche Variabilität der Zusammensetzung nicht zu.Die Größe des jeweils bestimmten Anteils am Meerwasser stellt gleichzeitig den Transferfaktor der Konzentration zwischen der Nuklidkonzentration im Ursprungsgewässer (z. B. dem Rhein) und der sich daraus einstellenden Konzentration in der Deutschen Bucht dar. Ferner wurden die Transferfaktoren der Konzentration in Verbindung mit aus der Literatur entnommenen Größen der jährlichen Abflußmengen der Ursprungsgewässer genutzt, um auch die Transferfaktoren der jährlichen Einbringung zu ermitteln. So ergibt die jährliche Einbringung von 10¹⁵ Bq eines Nuklides z. B. in den Rhein bei 33,5 PSU in der Deutschen Bucht eine mittlere Konzentration von 0,34 Bq/l.Als Anwendungsbeispiel und zur Überprüfung der Richtigkeit der Transferfaktoren wird die Auswertung des Tritiumauslasses bei La Hague auf die Deutsche Bucht berechnet und mit den gemessenen Werten verglichen.

     

Problems with the interpretation of the 220 nm interstellar feature

The bump in the ultraviolet part of the interstellar extinction curve provides a great challenge in the modelling of interstellar dust. Its shape can be well approximated by a classical dispersion profile with a total halfwidth of 48 nm centred at 217 nm. Apart from few slightly deviating cases the parameters of the band seem to be surprisingly constant in the solar neighbourhood.The equivalent widthW of the 217 nm band shows a very tight correlation with the colour excessE(B-V). Studies of correlations with the strength of diffuse interstellar bands gave no conclusive results as to the nature of the band.The most common interpretation of the 217 nm feature as originating from small graphite grians meets several difficulties. No final decision on the carrier can be made at present.Paper presented at a Workshop on The Role of Dust in Dense Regions of Interstellar Matter, held at Georgenthal, G.D.R., in March 1986.     

Some consequences of meteoroid impacts on Saturn's rings

High-velocity impacts of interplanetary meteoroids on Saturn's rings are discussed. It is shown that the neutral gas emitted by impact vaporization may be responsible, to a large part, for the observed neutral ring atmosphere. Both the predicted neutral gas injection rate and the gas temperature (or kinetic energy) are compatible with the measurements (see Broadfoot, A. L., B. R. Sandel, D. E. Shemansky, J. B. Holberg, G. R. Smith, D. F. Strobel, J. C. McConnell, S. Kumar, D. M. Hunten, S. K. Atreya, T. M. Dohnahne, H. W. Moos, J. L. Bertaux, J. E. Blamont, R. B. Pomphrey, and S. Linik, Science212, 206–211, 1981). Heavy ejecta particles produce a particulate ring “halo”. The physical properties of this halo are calculated, and it appears to be identical with the tenous particle population discussed by Baum and Kreidl (1982). Erosion of Saturn's ring particles, the resulting mass balance, and regolith formation are estimated. This provides some constraints on surface properties and optical albedo.     

Georadiochemical evidence to weathering of mining residues of the Mansfeld mining district,Germany

Mining heaps are used as archives for the investigation of weathering processes. Aim of this work was to investigate the different weathering behavior of heap materials derived from Kupferschiefer mining with respect to environmental hazard. For this purpose, Kupferschiefer and slag material of two heaps of different age were examined regarding to the radionuclide distribution and geochemical composition. By measuring of the local dose rate, performing digital autoradiography and gamma spectrometry the radiological load of the heaps and the heap materials was determined. The geochemical characterization of the samples was performed by XRF, ICP–OES and ICP–MS. The results show a clear higher radionuclide load of the younger slag heap. A depletion of chalcophile and lithophile elements in the older slag was determined. Apart from a homogeneous radionuclide distribution, considerable radionuclide enrichments in fossil fragments could be proven. The results reveal a different weathering behavior of slag material in comparison to the Kupferschiefer depending on the chemical binding of the elements on organic and inorganic species. Natural organic matter as well as apatite in Kupferschiefer act as retention barrier for some metals.     

Anthropogenic affects on lake sedimentation process: a case study from Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey

Lake Sapanca in NW Turkey is a fault originated freshwater basin fed by seasonally variable flows of 15 streams. Considerations of lake–river interaction, supported by statistical measures of 47 bottom samples, suggest that sediment transport and deposition within the lake is controlled by two types of human constructed structures in addition to natural factors: (1) the dykes constructed in the front of streams, which feed the lake by strong flows, to prevent the filling of lakebed by coarse-grained sediments; (2) the constructed regulator on the outflowing Çarksuyu stream results in a higher sedimentation rate of clay-sized material on the NE corner of the lake, which is extraordinary in the shelf environment.     

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling at an air weapons range

Numerical modelling was done at the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range, Canada, to test whether the dissolved RDX and nitrate detected in groundwater come from the same sources, and to predict whether contamination poses a threat to the surface water receptors near the site. Military live fire training activities may indeed pose a risk of contamination to groundwater resources, however field investigations on military bases are quite recent, and little information is available on the long-term behaviour of munition residues related contaminants. Very limited information was available about the contaminant source zones, which were assigned based on our knowledge of current training activities. The RDX plume was well represented with the model, but the heterogeneous distribution of nitrate concentrations was more difficult to reproduce. It was nonetheless determined that both contaminants originate from the same areas. According to the model, both contaminants should reach the nearby river, but concentrations in the river should remain very low if the source zone concentration does not change. Finally, the model allowed the recommendation of a new location for the main bombing target, which would offer added protection to the river and the lake into which it flows.     

The Ca-Eskola component in eclogitic clinopyroxene as a function of pressure, temperature and bulk composition: an experimental study to 15 GPa with possible implications for the formation of oriented SiO2-inclusions in omphacite

Experiments have been conducted in the P-T range 2.5–15 GPa and 850–1,500°C using bulk compositions in the systems SiO₂–TiO₂–Al₂O₃–Fe₂O₃–FeO–MnO–MgO–CaO–Na₂O–K₂O–P₂O₅ and SiO₂–TiO₂–Al₂O₃–MgO–CaO–Na₂O to investigate the Ca-Eskola (CaEs Ca_0.5□_0.5AlSi₂O₆) content of clinopyroxene in eclogitic assemblages containing garnet + clinopyroxene + SiO₂ ± TiO₂ ± kyanite as a function of P, T, and bulk composition. The results show that CaEs_ss in clinopyroxene increases with increasing T and is strongly bulk composition dependent whereby high CaEs-contents are favoured by bulk compositions with high normative anorthite and low diopside contents. In this study, a maximum of 18 mol% CaEs_ss was found at 6 GPa and 1,350°C in a kyanite-eclogite assemblage garnet + clinopyroxene + kyanite + rutile + coesite. By comparison, no significant increase in CaEs_ss with increasing P could be observed. If the formation of oriented SiO₂-rods frequently observed in eclogititc clinopyroxenes is due to the retrogressive breakdown of a CaEs-component then these textures are a cooling rather than a decompression phenomenon and are most likely to be found in kyanite-bearing eclogites cooled from temperatures ≥750°C. The presence of clinopyroxene with approx. 4 mol% CaEs_ss in an experiment conducted at 2.5 GPa/850°C confirms earlier suggestions based on field data that vacancy-rich clinopyroxenes are not necessarily restricted to ultrahigh pressure metamorphic conditions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.