Short-Range Prediction Experiments with Operational Data Assimilation System for the Kuroshio South of Japan

The short-range (one month) variability of the Kuroshio path was predicted in 84 experiments (90-day predictions) using a model in an operational data assimilation system based on data from 1993 to 1999. The predictions started from an initial condition or members of a set of initial conditions, obtained in a reanalysis experiment. The predictions represent the transition from straight to meander of the Kuroshio path, and the results have been analyzed according to previously proposed mechanisms of the transition with eddy propagation and interaction acting as a trigger of the meander and self-sustained oscillation. The reanalysis shows that the meander evolves due to eddy activity. Simulation (no assimilation) shows no meander state, even with the same atmospheric forcing as the prediction. It is suggested therefore that the initial condition contains information on the meander and the system can represent the evolution. Mean (standard deviation) values of the axis error for all 84 cases are 13, 17, and 20 (10, 10, and 12) km, in 138.5°E, in the 30-, 60-, and 90-day predictions respectively. The observed mean deviation from seasonal variation is 30 km. The predictive limit of the system is thus about 80 days. The time scale of the limit depends on which stage in the transition is adopted as the initial condition. The gradual decrease of the amplitude in a stage from meander to straight paths is also predicted. The predictive limit is about 20 days, which is shorter than the prediction of the opposite transition. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seasonal variation of the current in the Tsushima Strait deduced from ADCP data of ship-of-opportunity

The ADCP data obtained in the Tsushima Strait in the period from February 1987 to November 1990 on board twelve patrol vessels and one research vessel belonging to Maritime Safety Agency was analyzed. Total amount of the data is 200,053, but after quality check, we used 158,401 data for the analysis of the current field and its variability in the strait. The seasonal variation of the currents had been believed to be large. However, no direct current observation throughout the season had been made, and the knowledge on the seasonal variation was derived indirectly from the data of the sea level difference across the strait and of the density field given by hydrographic observations. ADCP data indicates that the seasonal variation of the current field is considerably small in all sub-regions. In the relatively strong current region to the west of the Tsushima Island, the northeast current component has maximum value in the early winter season.     

Downward flux of zooplankton fecal pellets in the upper 2,000 m water column of the Izu Trench,western North Pacific

Sinking particulate matter were obtained from twelve depths using free-drifting sediment trap arrays which were deployed in the upper 2,000 m water column of the Izu Trench, northwest Pacific Ocean. The largest flux of 146 mgC m^–2 day^–1 was observed at 150 m depth. The flux generally decreased with depth below the maximum, however, minor flux peaks occurred at 1,000 and 1,250 m depth (>30 mgC m^–2 day^–1). Sinking large particles (>100 µm) were composed of fecal pellets typical of crustaceans, macroscopic aggregates, and planktonic organisms and their fragments. Three major components constituted 19%, 20% and 29%, respectively, of the total carbon flux (averaged from the fluxes at five depths; 50, 100, 150, 1,000 and 2,000 m). Among them, fecal pellet flux and large organism flux were well correlated with the total flux. The close correspondence between the fecal flux and the total carbon flux suggests that the latter is derived from a group of variables including other biogenic matter, among which fecal pellet is one of the leading factors controlling total flux, though the latter is only a minor covariable in quantity. Vertical flux profiles of fecal pellets and their internal constituents revealed some new inputs of feces occurring through the water column. This phenomenon implies that downward transportation of organic material is characterized by feeding and egestion activities of zooplankton, including overlapping processes of sinking and dispersion of large fecal particles and repackaging of dispersed small particles.     

Importance of feeding on regenerable parts of prey for juvenile stone flounder Platichthys bicoloratus in estuarine habitats

Prey availability is one of the most important factors affecting the quality of nursery grounds. Estuaries play an important role as nursery grounds for juvenile stone flounder, but the mechanism behind the consistently high availability of prey has never been examined. This study investigates which prey is mainly selected by juvenile stone flounder (15–55 mm standard length) in the estuary of the Natori River, northern Japan. In a cage experiment, juveniles showed positive selection for the palps of the spionid polychaete Pseudopolydora kempi in March, and for the siphons of the bivalve Nuttallia olivacea in April, May and June in both sandy and muddy-sand habitats. This selective predation showed that sublethal predation on regenerable parts of invertebrates is important for stone flounder. Nuttallia olivacea, the dominant bivalve in the estuary, was more abundant and in better somatic condition in the sandy area in spite of the stronger siphon-cropping pressure by juvenile stone flounder. These results confirm that sublethal predation on highly abundant benthos plays an important role in forming estuarine habitats into areas of high prey availability for juvenile stone flounder, which leads to their high growth rate.     

Preferential dissolution of SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> from enstatite to H<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluid under high pressure and temperature

Stability and phase relations of coexisting enstatite and H₂ fluid were investigated in the pressure and temperature regions of 3.1–13.9 GPa and 1500–2000 K using laser-heated diamond-anvil cells. XRD measurements showed decomposition of enstatite upon heating to form forsterite, periclase, and coesite/stishovite. In the recovered samples, SiO₂ grains were found at the margin of the heating hot spot, suggesting that the SiO₂ component dissolved in the H₂ fluid during heating, then precipitated when its solubility decreased with decreasing temperature. Raman and infrared spectra of the coexisting fluid phase revealed that SiH₄ and H₂O molecules formed through the reaction between dissolved SiO₂ and H₂. In contrast, forsterite and periclase crystals were found within the hot spot, which were assumed to have replaced the initial orthoenstatite crystals without dissolution. Preferential dissolution of SiO₂ components of enstatite in H₂ fluid, as well as that observed in the forsterite H₂ system and the quartz H₂ system, implies that H₂-rich fluid enhances Mg/Si fractionation between the fluid and solid phases of mantle minerals.     

The effectiveness of decentralisation reforms in the Philippines’s forestry sector

Decentralisation reforms and political conditions in the Philippines present an ideal environment for forest management by recognising the land entitlements of upland and indigenous communities and promoting the involvement of local government units. By assessing whether current conditions – policies, institutions, and programmes – are conducive to effective decentralisation, this study examines the present state of decentralisation in the forestry sector of the Philippines. By analysing case studies conducted in Nueva Vizcaya Province, it also attempts to answer a broader question: when is decentralisation a success and when is it a failure? A number of uncertainties are revealed, along with various issues that hamper decentralisation, and that are interrelated and reinforce one another in much the same way as they have done over the past decade. The study highlights the need for caution when increasing the involvement of government at different levels, as it affects the pace of decentralisation reforms. It also shows that a mix of site-specific interventions and community endeavours that focus on securing local livelihoods has led to some success. This is a strategy that helps decentralisation reforms.     

Hydration of rhyolitic glass during weathering as characterized by IR microspectroscopy

The mechanism and rate of hydration of rhyolitic glass during weathering were studied. Doubly polished thin sections of two rhyolites with different duration of weathering (Ohsawa lava: 26,000 yr, Awanomikoto lava: 52,000 yr) were prepared. Optical microscope observation showed that altered layers had developed along the glass surfaces. IR spectral line profile analysis was conducted on the glass sections from the surface to the interior for a length of 250 μm and the contents of molecular H₂O (H₂O_m), OH species (OH) and total water (H₂O_t) were determined. The diffusion profile of H₂O_m in Ohsawa lava extends beyond the layer observed by optical microscope. The content of H₂O_m in the hydrated region is much higher than that of OH species. Thus, the reaction from H₂O_m to OH appears to be little and H₂O_m is the dominant water species moving into the glass during weathering. Based on the concentration profiles, the diffusion coefficients of H₂O_m(D_H2Om) and H₂O_t(D_H2Ot) were determined to be 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁰ and 3.4 × 10⁻¹⁰ μm² s⁻¹ for Ohsawa lava, and 5.2 × 10⁻¹¹ and 4.1 × 10⁻¹¹ μm² s⁻¹ for Awanomikoto lava, respectively. The obtained D_H2Om during weathering are more than 2-3 orders of magnitude larger than the diffusion coefficient at ∼20 °C that is extrapolated from the diffusivity data for >400 °C. This might suggest that the mechanism of water transport is different at weathering conditions and >400 °C.     

Mesoscale eddy effects on temporal variability of surface chlorophyll a in the Kuroshio Extension

We investigated the relationship between chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations estimated from satellite observations and the activity of eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region. High (low) area-averaged Chl-a concentrations were frequently observed in the core of cyclonic (anticyclonic) eddies. Such relationships between Chl-a concentrations and eddy cores were not frequently observed in the southern part of the recirculation gyre, and advection of background meridional gradient of Chl-a by eddy-edge currents accounted for Chl-a spatial variability. Decadal-scale changes of Chl-a concentrations around the Kuroshio Extension were strongly affected by eddy activity and transport but not by large-scale near-surface isopycnal heaving. We also found that decadal changes of nutrient concentrations near the main stream could affect Chl-a concentrations in the southern part of the recirculation gyre via southward transport of eddies and mean flow.     

应用Terra/MODIS卫星数据估算洞庭湖蓄水量的变化

以洞庭湖为例,利用2002年的美国Terra/MODIS卫星数据,以16天为周期将全年划分为23个时段,分别对湖区水位和蓄水量分布特征和变化规律进行动态监测和综合分析。具体测算方法包括以下4个步骤: (1) 根据湖区特性,将整个洞庭湖分为3个部分：自西向东依此是西洞庭湖 (WDL), 南洞庭湖 (SDL) 和东洞庭湖 (EDL)。这3个部分的蓄水量之和就是整个洞庭湖的总蓄水量。(2) 以水体和陆地的光谱差异为基础,使用Terra/MODIS卫星的NDVI 数据识别并量测湖区水面积。(3) 将湖区水面影像同湖区数字高程模型DEM相叠加,以被监测的湖区水面的平均高度值作为水面高度。水面高度与湖底高度的差即为相应点的水深。(4) 按50 m×50 m网格大小和相应位置的水深的乘积来计算每个水柱体积。最后,将整个湖内的所有水柱的体积值累加便得到洞庭湖的总蓄水量。用上述方法测算的水位和蓄水量与实测资料进行了比较表明,两者具有很好的一致性。     

A new high-stress undrained ring-shear apparatus and its application to the 1792 Unzen–Mayuyama megaslide in Japan

Sassa and others in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, developed a series of undrained ring-shear apparatus to physically simulate landslide initiation and motion, from DPRI-3 (Sassa 1992) to DPRI-7 (Sassa et al., Landslides 1(1):7–19, 2004). The maximum undrained capacities in the DPRI series ranged from 300 to 650 kPa. Sassa and others in the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) have developed a new series of undrained ring-shear apparatus (ICL-1and ICL-2) for two projects of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL-161 and IPL-175). Both projects are supported by the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development Program (SATREPS) of Japan. ICL-1 was developed to create a compact and transportable apparatus for practical use in Croatia; one set was donated to Croatia in 2012. ICL-2 was developed in 2012–2013 to simulate the initiation and motion of megaslides of more than 100 m in thickness. The successful undrained capacity of ICL-2 is 3 MPa. This apparatus was applied to simulate possible conditions for the initiation and motion of the 1792 Unzen–Mayuyama megaslide (volume, 3.4?×?10⁸ m³; maximum depth, 400 m) triggered by an earthquake. The megaslide and resulting tsunami killed about 15,000 people. The Unzen Restoration Office of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) of Japan systematically collected various papers and reports and published two summary leaflets: one in English in 2002 and an extended version in Japanese in 2003. Samples were taken from the source area (for initiation) and the moving area (for motion). The hazard area was estimated by the integrated landslide simulation model LS-RAPID, using parameters obtained with the ICL-2 undrained ring-shear apparatus. The estimated hazard area agrees reasonably with the landslide moving area reported in the Ministry leaflets.