Improving Precipitation Forecasts over the Global Tropical Belt

Summary  This study explores the nowcasting and short-range forecasting (up to 3 days) skills of rainfall over the tropics using a high resolution global model. Since the model-predicted rainfall is very sensitive to model parameters, four key model parameters were first selected. They are the Asselin filter coefficient, the fourth order horizontal diffusion coefficient, the surface moisture flux coefficient, and the vertical diffusion coefficient. The optimal values were defined as those which contributed to the best one day rainfall forecasts in the present study. In order to demonstrate and improve the precipitation forecast skill, several numerical experiments were designed using the 14-level Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) at a resolution of T106. Comparisons were also made of the short-range forecasts obtained from a control experiment subjected to normal mode initialization (NMI) versus experiments based on physical initialization (PI). The latter experiments were integrated using the original FSUGSM and a modified version. This modified FSUGSM was developed here by applying a reverse cumulus parameterization alorithm to the regular forecast model, which restructures the vertical humidity distribution and constrains the large-scale model’s moisture error growth during the model integration. An improved short-range rainfall prediction skill was achieved from the modified FSUGSM in this study. The results showed a better agreement between model-based and observed rainfall intensity and pattern. Received January 18, 1999     

On the modification of structure of cometary nuclei by the transport of super-volatiles

Earlier, a study has been made of the transport mechanism of volatile molecules such as N₂ and CO through cometary nuclei as they are heated by radioactive elements. Coupled equations of heat and gas transport in the presence of gas sublimation and recondensation, as well as a heat source, were numerically solved. And it was shown that supervolatiles such as N₂ and CO are transported through the pores of the nucleus, and consequently the volatile molecules become more abundant near the surface than deep inside the nucleus. Here, the process is investigated for a wider range of paramaters such as porosity and nuclear radius. It is shown that provided the central temperature attains the sublimation point of the super-volatiles, they are transported toward the surface regardless of the values of the parameters.     

Influence of food quality on egg production and viability of the marine planktonic copepod Acartia omorii

Egg production, egg viability and fecal pellet production were determined for individual Acartia omorii, which were fed diets of two species of diatoms (Skeletonema costatum and Phaeodactylum tricornutum) and three species of dinoflagellates (Scrippsiella trochoidea, Heterocapsa triquetra and Cochlodinium polykrikoides). Diets were analyzed for fatty acid content as an indicator of food quality. Depending on the diet, egg production of A. omorii varied over time, diminishing with some diets (S. trochoidea, C. polykrikoides, P. tricornutum). This rate of reduction was much more rapid for a diet of C. polykrikoides, which caused egg production to decrease to ca. 2.4 eggs f⁻¹ d⁻¹ in only four days. As for all diets, egg viability was high at the beginning but with the C. polykrikoides and P. tricornutum diets, it rapidly decreased with time. Fecal pellet production also varied with time, depending on the diet. Egg production rate was closely correlated with fecal pellet production. There was no direct relationship between egg viability and egg production rate, but both egg production and viability were affected by the nutritional quality of food. Egg viability was also highly dependent on the composition of fatty acids in the eggs. Egg viability showed positive correlation with the ratio of ω3:ω6 groups among egg fatty acids, and negative correlation with the ratio of 20:5 (n−3) : 22:6 (n−3). While comparing several diets, egg production rate was higher on diets (H. triquetra and S. trochoidea) containing ample amounts of essential fatty acids such as 18:4 (n−3) and 22:6 (n−3). The results suggest that fertility of A. omorii was dependent upon the quality of the food, and dinoflagellate diets, with the exception of C. polykrikoides, were preferable to diatom diets.     

Characteristics of alkenones synthesized by a bloom of emiliania huxleyi in the Bering Sea

We investigated the characteristics of the alkenones produced by a bloom of Emiliania huxleyi in the eastern Bering Sea in 2000. Alkenones were detected in surface waters between 57°N and 63°N, where phosphate concentrations were low and the ammonium/nitrate ratio was high. The total alkenone content (C_37:2, C_37:3, and C_37:4) ranged from 22.0 to 349 μg g⁻¹ in suspended particles and from 0.109 to 1.42 μg g⁻¹ in surface sediments. This suggests that a large proportion of the particulate alkenones synthesized in the surface water rapidly degraded within the water column and/or at the water-sediment interface of the Bering Shelf. The change in the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) of C_37:3 alkenone could not be explained only by variation in [CO₂(aq)] in the surface water but also depended on the growth rate of E. huxleyi. The alkenone unsaturation index (U^K′₃₇) was converted into an alkenone “temperature” with three equations [Prahl et al 1988], [Sikes et al 1997] and [Müller et al 1998]; Sikes et al.’s (1997) equation gave the best correlation with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Bering Sea. However, some temperatures estimated by Sikes et al.’s (1997) equation from the U^K′₃₇ varied from the observed SST, possibly because of the rapidly changing rate of alkenone synthesis in the logarithmic growth stage or the low rate of alkenone synthesis when nutrients were limiting. Temperatures estimated from U^K′₃₇ in the surface sediments (6.8-8.2°C) matched the observed SST in September (7-8°C) but differed from the annual average SST of 4 to 5°C, suggesting that most of the alkenone in the eastern Bering Sea was synthesized during limited periods, for instance, in September. The relative amounts of C_37:4 alkenone as proportions of the total alkenones (referred to as C_37:4%) were high, ranging from 18.3 to 41.4%. Low-salinity water (<32 psu) within the study area would have contributed to the high C_37:4% because a negative linear relationship between C_37:4% and salinity was found in this study.     

Geostatistical interpolation of space–time rainfall on Tamshui River basin,Taiwan

Taiwan suffers from heavy storm rainfall during the typhoon season. This usually causes large river runoff, overland flow, erosion, landslides, debris flows, loss of power, etc. In order to evaluate storm impacts on the downstream basin, a real‐time hydrological modelling is used to estimate potential hazard areas. This can be used as a decision‐support system for the Emergency Response Center, National Fire Agency Ministry, to make ‘real‐time’ responses and minimize possible damage to human life and property. This study used 34 observed events from 14 telemetered rain‐gauges in the Tamshui River basin, Taiwan, to study the spatial–temporal characteristics of typhoon rainfall. In the study, regionalized theory and cross‐semi‐variograms were used to identify the spatial‐temporal structure of typhoon rainfall. The power form and parameters of the cross‐semi‐variogram were derived through analysis of the observed data. In the end, cross‐validation was used to evaluate the performance of the interpolated rainfall on the river basin. The results show the derived rainfall interpolator represents the observed events well, which indicates the rainfall interpolator can be used as a spatial‐temporal rainfall input for real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physical factors influencing immature-fish communities in the surf zones of sandy beaches in northwestern Kyushu Island,Japan

We aim to understand the relationships between physical conditions and characteristics of the immature-fish community in surf zones of sandy beaches. Therefore, we obtained fish samples between March 2007 and February 2008 and analyzed certain physical conditions in the surf zones of 21 sandy beaches on the coastline of the northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan. We collected a total of 83 species and 6458 immature individuals. In a BIO-ENV analysis, the highest correlation was observed between fish assemblage and S20 (i.e., the slope from the shoreline to the sites where the depth was 20 m) and current velocity (CV) values. Stepwise multiple linear regression analyses revealed that the number of species and individuals decrease with an increase in the S20 and CV values. These results show that species richness and the abundance of immature-fish increase under shelving and calm conditions. Thus, immature-fish assemblages are strongly influenced by the prevailing physical conditions. Moreover, in six of the 10 dominant species, a negative correlation was observed between CV and abundance. On the other hand, S20 was found to be the explanatory variable only in the case of the most dominant species, i.e., Gymnogobius breunigii. Furthermore, a positive correlation was observed between S1 (i.e., the slope from the shoreline to the sites where the depth was 1.0 m at the mean tidal level) and median particle size (i.e., MPS of the sediments) and the abundances of Sillago japonica and Favonigobius gymnauchen, respectively, and a negative correlation with salinity, in the case of Acanthogobius lactipes. We conclude that the characteristics of the fish community in surf zones on sandy beaches are determined by not only the shelving and calm conditions, which influence fish assemblages and abundances, but also the habitat diversity, which influences the diversity of fish species.     

Three‐dimensional modelling of controlled‐source electromagnetic surveys using an edge finite‐element method with a direct solver

A fully three‐dimensional finite‐element algorithm has been developed for simulating controlled‐source electromagnetic surveys. To exploit the advantages of geometric flexibility, frequency‐domain Maxwell's equations of the secondary electric field were discretised using edge‐based finite elements while the primary field was calculated analytically for a horizontally layered‐earth model. The resulting system of equations for the secondary field was solved using a parallel version of direct solvers. The accuracy of the algorithm was successfully verified by comparisons with integral‐equations and iterative solutions, and the applicability to models containing large conductivity contrasts was verified against published data. The advantages of geometry‐conforming meshes have been demonstrated by comparing different mesh systems to simulate an inclined sheet model. A comparison of the performance between direct and iterative solvers demonstrated the superior efficiency of direct solvers, particularly for multisource problems.     

Ensemble numerical forecasts of the sporadic Kuroshio water intrusion (kyucho) into shelf and coastal waters

The finite volume coastal ocean model downscaling ocean reanalysis and forecast data provided by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment (JCOPE2) are used to forecast sudden Kuroshio water intrusion events (kyucho) induced by frontal waves amplified south of the Bungo Channel in 2010. Two-month hindcast computations give initial conditions of the following 3-month forecasts computations which consist of ten ensemble members. The temperature time series computed by these ten members are averaged to compare with that actually observed in the Bungo Channel, where sudden temperature rises related to kyucho events are remarkable in February, August, and September. Overall, the intense kyucho events actually observed in these months are predicted successfully. However, intense kyucho events are forecasted frequently during the period of May through June even though intense kyucho events are absent during this period in the actual ocean. It is suggested that the present downscaling forecast model requires reliable lateral boundary conditions provided by JCOPE2 data to which numerous Argo data are assimilated to enhance the accuracy. In addition, it seems likely that the model accuracy is reduced by small eddies moving along the shelf break.     

Two‐dimensional waveform inversion of multi‐component data in acoustic‐elastic coupled media

In order to account for the effects of elastic wave propagation in marine seismic data, we develop a waveform inversion algorithm for acoustic‐elastic media based on a frequency‐domain finite‐element modelling technique. In our algorithm we minimize residuals using the conjugate gradient method, which back‐propagates the errors using reverse time migration without directly computing the partial derivative wavefields. Unlike a purely acoustic or purely elastic inversion algorithm, the Green's function matrix for our acoustic‐elastic algorithm is asymmetric. We are nonetheless able to achieve computational efficiency using modern numerical methods. Numerical examples show that our coupled inversion algorithm produces better velocity models than a purely acoustic inversion algorithm in a wide variety of cases, including both single‐ and multi‐component data and low‐cut filtered data. We also show that our algorithm performs at least equally well on real field data gathered in the Korean continental shelf.     

Field observations on correlation of fatty acid profiles between suspended particulate matter and green-lipped mussels in subtropical waters of Hong Kong

By analysis of the fatty acid profiles in mussel tissues and suspended particulate matter (SPM) in water, the present study showed a significant relationship of the trophic linkage between mussels and the SPM. At seven locations from inner to outer areas along the eutrophic Tolo Harbour and Tolo Channel, Hong Kong, the composition (as percentage of total fatty acids) of both monoenoic and polyunsaturated fatty acids in the tissues of green-lipped mussels Perna viridis and SPM in water had significant correlation (p<0.01). In particular, the composition of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n3) (as percentage of total fatty acids) in mussel tissues was statistically correlated with that in SPM (p<0.01), implying that mussels incorporate DHA, the biomarker of dinoflagellates. Principal component analysis further demonstrated that the fatty acid profiles of SPM were different among locations in the harbour, mid and outer channel of the study area, so were the mussel tissue fatty acid profiles. Cluster analysis of phytoplankton data also revealed the dominance of diatoms in the inner harbour and channel areas, whereas dinoflagellates were abundant in the outer channel waters. The possible implications of using benthic suspension feeders such as green-lipped mussels P. viridis for controlling phytoplankton abundance in coastal waters are discussed.