Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO₂ emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO₂ emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO₂ in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.     

The cosmic distance scale

Summary The status of the cosmic distance scale problem in early 1989 is reviewed. Internally consistent distances to Local Group galaxies are given in Tables 5 and 6. Within the Local Group the distance scale is found to be 11±5% smaller than that previously adopted by Sandage and Tammann. Distances to nearby galaxies are used as stepping stones to the Virgo cluster. The interpretation of the Tully-Fisher observations of Virgo spirals is found to be ambiguous because it is not yet clear which spirals are cluster members and which are background objects. Distance estimates of the Virgo cluster obtained by different techniques are listed in Table 11. The distance modulus of the Virgo cluster is found to be 31.5±0.2, corresponding to a distance of 20±2 Mpc. The elliptical galaxies in the core of the Virgo cluster haveV ₀=1200±46 kms^–1, which corresponds toV _LG=1082±48 km s^–1. With an infall velocity of 250±50 km s^–1 this yields a cosmological redshiftV=1332±69 km s^–1, from which a Hubble parameter H₀=67±8 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 is obtained. Space Telescope observations of distant Cepheids, Tully-Fisher observations of spirals in the Hercules eluster, and interference filter observations of Virgo planetary nebulae in the light of [O_III], should soon result in a major improvement in the accuracy with which H₀ is known.     

Problems of core correlation,sediment source ascription and yield estimation in Ponsonby Tarn,West Cumbria,UK

A suite of 27 short cores, 10 of which have been used for magnetic measurements and four for radiometric dating, provides a framework for reconstructing the processes, patterns and rates of sedimentation in Ponsonby Tarn, a small artificial impoundment created towards the end of the 19th century, close to the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant in NW England. Spatial and temporal changes in sedimentation are reconstructed and evidence presented for non-synchroneity in magnetic property changes from core to core in the upper part of the sequence, as a result of sorting and selective deposition at different distances from the inflow to the Tarn. Magnetic measurements alone are therefore not a secure basis upon which to quantify sediment yield for defined time intervals at this site. The chronology, established mainly from ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁴Cs analyses, allows estimates of mean sediment yield per annum for four periods: prior to AD 1940, 1940–1964, 1964–1986 and 1986–1991. The rates of sediment accumulation have increased in recent times, especially since 1964, with evidence for input from both magnetically enhanced soils and gleyed alluvial and/or podsolized subsoil sources. Pre-1940 mean annual deposition within the present area of the lake is calculated as 19·5 t a⁻¹ and for the period since 1986 (the period of maximum sedimentation rates), as 111·3 t a⁻¹. These represent yields of 7·0 t km⁻² a⁻¹ and 39·8 t km⁻² a⁻¹, respectively, for the catchment as a whole. Rock magnetic evidence, based on measurements of both bulk samples and the finest particle size separates, suggests that bacterial magnetite, formed within the lake, contributes to the magnetic properties of the sediments, thus modifying the signatures relating to allochthonous sediment input. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.     

Pullout behavior of biocement–geosynthetic reinforcement system: a parametric study

Acta Geotechnica - In the biocement–geosynthetic system, biocement is combined with geosynthetic to increase the pullout resistance of the geosynthetic and thereby the stability of reinforced...     

Hepatic biomarkers of sediment-associated pollution in juvenile turbot, Scophthalmus maximus L

Hatchery-reared turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.) were exposed for 3 weeks, under laboratory conditions, to sediment collected from polluted sites in Cork Harbour and a reference site at Ballymacoda, Co. Cork, Ireland. The potential of surficial sediment for inducing hepatic biomarkers was assessed at two levels of biological organisation: expression of cytochrome P450 [Western blotting analysis and 7-ethoxy-resorufin O-dealkylase (EROD), 7-benzoxy resorufin O-dealkylase (BROD), 7-methoxy resorufin O-dealkylase (MROD), 7-pentoxy-resorufin O-dealkylase (PROD) activities] and DNA integrity (Comet assay). Positive controls were generated, either by exposing turbot to cadmium chloride-spiked seawater (Comet assay) or to beta-naphthaflavone by intraperitoneal injection (cytochrome P450 induction). The induction of cytochrome P450 activity (EROD, MROD and PROD) in animals following a 7-day exposure to contaminated sediments was significantly higher than those exposed to reference site sediment and remained elevated thereafter; BROD was not induced. DNA single-strand breaks were also significantly higher following exposure to contaminated sediments throughout the experiment. Although no direct correlation between induction of alkoxyresorufin O-dealkylase activities and a particular chemical class was established, the induction of MROD and PROD activities in fish exposed to sediments containing complex contaminant mixtures, appeared to be more sensitive than conventional EROD activity assays. We conclude from the present laboratory study that S. maximus is a suitable sentinel species for the assessment of moderately contaminated sediments and therefore allows for the further development of this model for future, ecologically relevant, field studies.