西北中部半干旱区兴隆山森林岛降水机理的数值模拟

通过WRF V2.1.2模式数值模拟试验并结合长期观测数据,研究了中国西北半干旱区长期存在和维持的森林山区(兴隆山区,103.84°E、35.86°N)的降水特征及其与周边地区的降水差异,并探讨了造成这种差异的主要原因。结果表明,兴隆山区与周边地区的降水差异主要表现在夏、秋季。在夏、秋季兴隆山区受东南湿润气流的影响,获得较多的水汽输入和较稳定的水汽来源,而山地地形则有利于截留东南气流携带的水汽并形成降水;兴隆山区及其周边地区局地的蒸散差异对二者之间降水差异的贡献不大。另外,兴隆山区土壤堆积覆盖的石质山构造和森林下垫面也有利于降水的截留和贮存以及植被的生长。因此,有利于水汽输入的大尺度环流形势、地形对空中水汽的截留以及特殊的地质因素是兴隆山山区孤立森林岛在半干旱区长期存在和维持的原因。     

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.     

1961—2016年我国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及其气候特征

利用全国2287个气象观测站1961—2016年逐日降水资料,基于对暴雨区进行连续追踪的思路,采用暴雨相邻站点数和暴雨区中心距离确定了中国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别方法;根据区域性暴雨过程的平均强度、持续时间和平均范围构建了区域性暴雨过程的综合强度评估模型。利用该客观方法对1961—2016年中国的区域性暴雨过程进行识别,并分析其气候和气候变化特征。结果显示：我国区域性暴雨过程年均38.5次;区域性暴雨过程一年各月均可出现,但主要出现在4—9月,其中7、8月发生最为频繁,6月区域性暴雨过程持续时间长、范围广、综合强度强,这与长江中下游地区梅雨现象有关。一年中,区域性暴雨过程首次出现日期平均为3月6日,末次出现日期平均为11月14日;1961—2016年,我国年区域性暴雨过程首次出现日期呈明显提前、末次日期呈显著推后、暴雨期呈显著延长的变化趋势;年发生总频次呈微弱增多,较强区域性暴雨过程次数呈明显增加趋势;区域性暴雨过程的覆盖范围和综合强度均呈显著增大趋势。南方型区域暴雨过程变化趋势与全国的基本一致;北方型首次日期呈提前、末次日期呈推后趋势,发生频次有微弱减少趋势,覆盖范围、持续时间、综合强度均无明显变化趋势。     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Statistical prediction of heavy rain in South Korea

1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and …     

Some characteristics of ozone profiles above Hong Kong

Summary Analysis of ozonesonde data shows that in the lower troposphere above Hong Kong, there is a relative maximum with respect to height in all seasons except winter. In the upper troposphere, there is with respect to height a relative minimum in the seasonally averaged ozone mixing ratio in winter. Ozone mixing ratios in the upper troposphere in winter and spring can be significantly enhanced by stratospheric intrusions associated with the passage of cold fronts and upper cut-off lows.For Hong Kong, the seasonally averaged total ozone has the highest value in spring, and the lowest in winter. The seasonally averaged total tropospheric ozone also has the highest value in spring, but the lowest in summer. In a relative sense, total tropospheric ozone contributes most to the total ozone in spring and the least in summer.The phase of the total ozone anomaly above Hong Kong is influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the positive anomaly associated with the easterly phase of QBO, and the negative anomaly the westerly phase.     

Uncertainty of the Linear Trend in the Zonal SST Gradient Across the Equatorial Pacific Since 1881

The change in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSSTG) across the equatorial Pacific plays an important role in the global climate system. However, there has not yet been a consensual conclusion about the changing ZSSTG at either a short-term (from 20 to 90 years) or a long-term time scale (longer than 90 years) in the literature. In this study, the uncertainty of the trend in ZSSTG for different sub-periods since 1881 was examined using four interpolated datasets and four un-interpolated datasets. It was found that the trend in ZSSTG on the short-term time scale could be significantly influenced by internal variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. On the long-term time scale, the sign of the ZSSTG trend depends on the dataset used. In particular, it was not possible to draw a uniform conclusion about the secular trends in ZSSTG in recent history, given the high sensitivity of the ZSSTG trends to the period, dataset, and regions used to calculate the trends. Our results imply that it may not be possible to detect the response of ZSSTG to global warming until a longer data record becomes available in the future.     

气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。     

Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation...